Nigeria’s crude oil reserves have been revised to 37.28 billion barrels as of January 1, 2025, according to fresh data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The updated figure, announced on Friday by the Commission’s Chief Executive, Engr. Gbenga Komolafe comes at a time when global markets are bracing for the ripple effects of renewed tariff tensions, particularly those emanating from President Donald Trump’s second-term trade war posture—raising alarms over the stability of oil prices and their broader implications for oil-dependent economies like Nigeria.
The reserves estimate reflects a slight reduction from the 37.50 billion barrels recorded in 2024. The NUPRC explained that the current tally includes 31.44 billion barrels of crude oil and 5.84 billion barrels of condensates. Though marginal, the dip in reserves has drawn attention largely because it coincides with external warnings of market instability, most notably a recent caution from JPMorgan. The global investment bank warned investors to dump Nigeria’s treasury bills as it expected to fuel a significant decline in oil prices.
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With Brent crude heading below $60 per barrel, dangerously close to Nigeria’s budgetary break-even point, the bank advised clients to “close their positions in Nigerian T-bills,” warning that oil below $60 could sink Nigeria’s current account back into deficit and pile pressure on the naira.
“The prospect of oil prices crashing under a new wave of global tariffs could severely undercut Nigeria’s fragile recovery path,” JPMorgan analysts said in a note last week, adding that countries with high fiscal reliance on oil revenue, like Nigeria, could see widening budget deficits and worsening exchange rate pressures.
Engr. Komolafe, while not directly addressing the global warnings, emphasized that the reserve update reflects ongoing efforts by the commission to align with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021 and its broader Regulatory Action Plan for 2024 and beyond. He added that the current reserves position was verified through data from 61 operating companies, whose submissions were audited in line with standard industry procedures.
“Nigeria’s oil and condensate reserves now stand at 37.28 billion barrels. This represents the official national reserves status as of January 1, 2025,” Komolafe said.
He further disclosed that Nigeria’s total gas reserves have risen slightly to 210.54 trillion cubic feet (tcf), up from 209.26 tcf the previous year. Of this, 101.03 tcf represents Associated Gas—gas found alongside oil—while 109.51 tcf represents Non-Associated Gas found in standalone formations. While the gas reserve trajectory remains upward, the real focus remains on crude, given Nigeria’s heavy dependence on petroleum exports for budgetary revenues.
The NUPRC also revealed the Reserves Life Index (RLI)—a projection of how long the reserves would last at current production levels. For oil, the RLI stands at 64 years, while gas reserves are projected to last another 93 years. But those figures assume current output remains stable, which is increasingly uncertain amid both domestic challenges and foreign risks.
Domestically, Nigeria continues to grapple with underperformance in daily crude output. Despite being a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria has consistently fallen short of its quota, though recent data suggests some recovery. According to Nairametrics calculations based on NUPRC’s Crude Oil and Condensate Production Report for 2024, the country produced a total of 566.79 million barrels throughout the year.
In February 2025, production figures even surpassed Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day by 70,000 bpd, a development confirmed by a Reuters survey and attributed to improved stability in the Niger Delta and reduced incidences of oil theft.
Still, the real test lies ahead. President Bola Tinubu has pledged to ramp up production to over 2 million barrels per day in 2025, a move aimed at boosting dollar inflows and narrowing the budget deficit. But that goal could be complicated by falling global demand and the threat of a price collapse if trade tensions further weaken market sentiment.
The renewed push by Trump to reimpose tariffs has already spooked oil markets. Analysts fear that following China’s retaliation, global trade flows could shrink, triggering a slowdown in industrial activity and a steep fall in energy demand. Brent crude prices have already shown signs of volatility, with bearish forecasts now gaining traction.
For Nigeria, whose oil sector accounts for over 80% of foreign exchange earnings and more than half of government revenue, even a modest price downturn could prove disastrous.
In this context, the NUPRC’s disclosure of the latest reserves is both a reassurance and a warning. While Nigeria remains richly endowed with hydrocarbon resources, it remains exposed to the external shocks of an increasingly fragmented global economy.