OPEC+ is preparing another oil production increase even as the Iran war continues to choke off exports from the Persian Gulf.
Sources familiar with the group’s internal discussions told Reuters that seven core OPEC+ producers have agreed in principle to raise June output targets by roughly 188,000 barrels per day. The decision, expected to be formalized during Sunday’s policy meeting, would mark the third consecutive monthly increase in quotas.
Yet the additional barrels are likely to remain largely theoretical for now. The continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, following the outbreak of war between the United States and Iran on February 28, has sharply constrained the ability of Gulf producers to move crude onto global markets. The disruption has affected exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, the very countries that previously held most of OPEC+’s spare production capacity.
Register for Tekedia Mini-MBA edition 20 (June 8 – Sept 5, 2026).
Register for Tekedia AI in Business Masterclass.
Join Tekedia Capital Syndicate and co-invest in great global startups.
Register for Tekedia AI Lab.
As a result, analysts and traders say the cartel is attempting to project stability and long-term confidence even while actual shipments remain severely impaired.
The seven countries participating in Sunday’s production discussions are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman. The meeting comes only days after the United Arab Emirates announced its exit from OPEC, a major geopolitical shock that further complicates the cartel’s long-term cohesion.
Although the UAE formally left the organization on May 1, the country had been one of the few members capable of meaningfully increasing production in recent years. Its departure weakens OPEC’s collective spare-capacity profile at a moment when energy markets are already under extraordinary strain.
The ongoing war has effectively split the global oil market into two competing realities. On paper, OPEC+ continues to signal that additional supply can be restored gradually to stabilize prices and reassure consuming nations. In practice, however, much of that supply remains stranded due to the security crisis surrounding Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime energy chokepoints. Roughly a fifth of global oil consumption normally passes through the Strait.
Oil executives and commodity traders say even if the waterway reopens in the near term, normalization will not happen quickly. Tankers displaced during the conflict must be repositioned, shipping insurance markets must stabilize, naval security risks must ease, and export backlogs must be worked through before flows return to normal levels.
Some analysts estimate that the process could take months. That lag is becoming increasingly important for financial markets, airlines, manufacturers, and central banks already bracing for the inflationary consequences of prolonged energy disruption.
Crude prices surged above $125 per barrel this week, reaching their highest levels in four years as concerns intensified over tightening supplies of diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemical feedstocks. Several analysts are now warning that global aviation markets could face meaningful fuel shortages within weeks if Gulf exports remain constrained.
The latest OPEC+ increase is slightly smaller than May’s output adjustment because it excludes the UAE’s share following its withdrawal from the group. Still, the symbolic value of the decision appears to matter almost as much as the barrels themselves.
By continuing with scheduled production hikes during wartime conditions, OPEC+ is attempting to present itself as functional, disciplined, and prepared to restore supply once trade routes reopen. The move also helps counter fears that the organization is losing control of the market following the UAE’s departure and escalating geopolitical fragmentation in the Middle East.
Internally, however, the cartel faces mounting pressure. Several producers are already struggling with falling exports and damaged infrastructure. Russia, another key member of the alliance, has reduced output after repeated Ukrainian drone attacks targeted parts of its energy network. Iran’s own oil exports have also come under renewed pressure following a U.S. blockade imposed in April.
According to OPEC’s most recent monthly report, combined output from the broader alliance averaged 35.06 million barrels per day in March, down sharply from February levels. Saudi Arabia and Iraq accounted for some of the largest declines as Gulf export routes became increasingly restricted.
The current crisis is also reshaping the calculations of major consuming economies. Countries in Europe and Asia are accelerating efforts to secure alternative crude supplies from the United States, West Africa, Brazil, and Guyana. Governments are also weighing additional strategic petroleum reserve releases to offset potential shortages if the conflict drags deeper into the summer.
At the same time, the war is reviving long-standing fears about the global economy’s dependence on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure. For years, energy analysts warned that prolonged instability around Hormuz represented one of the largest systemic risks to world markets. The current conflict is now testing that vulnerability in real time.
The production increase expected from OPEC+, therefore, serves less as an immediate supply solution and more as a signal of intent. The cartel is effectively telling markets that additional crude exists and can eventually return. But until shipping lanes reopen and regional security stabilizes, much of the world’s oil capacity will remain trapped behind a geopolitical blockade that no quota adjustment alone can solve.