Nigeria’s budget deficit surged to N12.95 trillion in 2024, exceeding the government’s projection by 41%, as revenue shortfalls and rising expenditure widened the fiscal gap.

This figure, captured in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Quarterly Economic Reports, reflects a 0.77% year-on-year increase from the N12.85 trillion deficit recorded in 2023, reinforcing concerns over the country’s deteriorating fiscal balance.

The government had initially budgeted for a N9.16 trillion deficit in 2024, but by year-end, that target had been significantly overshot. Despite efforts to bridge the gap through borrowing and fiscal adjustments, expenditure pressures and weak revenue collection ensured the deficit remained persistently high.

Total expenditure for 2024 stood at N21.5 trillion, marking a 12% increase from N19.19 trillion in 2023. Despite this rise, spending was still 25.2% lower than the N28.76 trillion budgeted for the year, reflecting spending constraints caused by revenue shortages. While revenue grew significantly—rising by 34.8% to N8.55 trillion from N6.34 trillion in 2023—it remained 56% lower than the government’s target of N19.56 trillion. This revenue underperformance worsened the fiscal gap, as expenditures continued to outpace earnings.

The CBN’s Q4 2024 Economic Report shows that government expenditure increased in the fourth quarter due to higher personnel costs and interest payments on debt. Recurrent expenditure dominated, accounting for 75.13% of total spending, while capital expenditure stood at just 17.1%, highlighting limited investment in infrastructure. Transfer payments constituted 7.77% of the total budget. The data further reveals that personnel costs rose by 23.31% in Q4 2024, while interest payments surged by 6.98%, underscoring Nigeria’s increasing debt burden.

While the fiscal deficit narrowed slightly in Q4 2024, the numbers remain troubling. According to the CBN, the primary deficit fell by 22.62% quarter-on-quarter, while the overall deficit declined by 3.61% to N3.08 trillion. The improvement was due to a modest increase in revenue that outpaced spending growth. However, despite this marginal improvement, the government remains significantly off target in meeting its fiscal projections.

Against this backdrop, the National Assembly, in December, approved the extension of the 2024 Budget’s lifespan to June 2025, a decision aimed at ensuring the continuity of fiscal operations and the uninterrupted execution of critical government projects.

2025 Budget Set to Follow the Same Path

With Nigeria’s 2025 budget also projecting a N14 trillion deficit, concerns are growing that the fiscal crisis will continue, particularly as the assumptions underpinning the budget are considered overly optimistic by economic analysts.

In December 2024, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu presented a N49.7 trillion budget proposal to the National Assembly, emphasizing bold economic targets, including a dramatic reduction in inflation and the stabilization of the naira.

During his address, Tinubu forecasted a sharp drop in inflation from 34.6% at the time to 15% in 2025, along with an improvement in the exchange rate from approximately N1,700 per US dollar to N1,500 per dollar.

“This is an ambitious but necessary budget to secure our future,” Tinubu said during his presentation. “The Budget projects inflation will decline from the current rate of 34.6 percent to 15 percent next year, while the exchange rate will improve from approximately 1,700 naira per US dollar to 1,500 naira, and a base crude oil production assumption of 2.06 million barrels per day.”

While the government’s targets signal optimism, many economic analysts are skeptical, warning that these projections are based on unrealistic assumptions and fail to account for Nigeria’s economic volatility.

Several key assumptions in the 2025 budget raise concerns that the deficit will likely exceed projections, just as it did in 2024. Inflation stood at 34.6% when the budget was presented, and the government expects it to drop to 15% within a year. Given the ongoing weakness of the naira, high food prices, and rising cost of living, analysts believe such a rapid decline is improbable.

The budget assumes the naira will appreciate to N1,500 per US dollar from the N1,700 level recorded in late 2024. However, foreign exchange volatility and low dollar inflows pose serious challenges to achieving this target. The CBN’s continued interventions in the FX market and Nigeria’s reliance on oil earnings, which have suffered decline over the years due to low oil output, could further strain reserves.

The crude oil production assumption of 2.06 million barrels per day is also seen as overly optimistic. Nigeria has consistently struggled to meet its OPEC production quota, with oil output fluctuating around 1.3–1.5 million barrels per day in 2024 due to oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and operational inefficiencies. If production remains below target, revenue shortfalls will worsen, pushing the deficit higher.

The 2024 budget deficit was partly financed through borrowing, including plans announced in November 2024 to issue a $1.7 billion Eurobond. With Nigeria’s public debt already exceeding N97 trillion as of late 2024, analysts caution that excessive borrowing could push the country into an unsustainable debt crisis.

They added that unless structural economic reforms are implemented to boost non-oil revenue, improve tax compliance, and enhance spending efficiency, Nigeria’s budget deficits are likely to persist, deepening the country’s financial challenges.

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The U.S. Treasury’s planned revelation of its Bitcoin holdings and its stance on including XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) in a national digital asset reserve on April 5, 2025, could have wide-ranging implications across financial, regulatory, and geopolitical spheres. Confirmation of the U.S. holding ~200,000 BTC ($17 billion at current prices) could spark a market rally, especially if XRP, SOL, and ADA are included. These altcoins, tied to U.S.-based projects, might see sharper gains—XRP surged 33%, SOL 25%, and ADA 60% after Trump’s initial March 2025 mention—potentially pushing Bitcoin past its $108,268 peak and lifting altcoin valuations.

Official disclosure and reserve inclusion signal government endorsement, likely boosting institutional investment. BlackRock’s $50 billion IBIT and Circle’s $4-5 billion IPO could see accelerated inflows, reinforcing crypto’s financial legitimacy. If Bitcoin and altcoins join reserves alongside the dollar, it might dilute demand for USD amid Larry Fink’s warning of its reserve status eroding. With U.S. debt at $36.6 trillion, this could raise borrowing costs as investors hedge with crypto.

This disclosure, timed just after Circle’s IPO filing and amid debates over the dollar’s reserve status, could reshape crypto’s role in U.S. policy. By Friday, when the details emerge, we’ll know if the government opts to hold these assets alongside Bitcoin, potentially boosting their legitimacy, or sidelines them, reinforcing Bitcoin’s primacy. The Treasury’s stance may also hint at future regulatory moves as the U.S. navigates its $36.6 trillion debt and crypto’s growing financial footprint.

X2Y2’s exit, after achieving $5.6 billion in lifetime trading volume, further consolidates the NFT space around dominant players like OpenSea and Blur. With X2Y2’s 90% volume drop mirroring a sector-wide decline (NFT trading fell from $6 billion monthly in 2021 to under $500 million in 2024), smaller platforms may struggle to survive, reducing competition and user choice. While smart contracts remain active, the loss of X2Y2’s front-end interface could strand less tech-savvy users, potentially locking up assets or reducing liquidity for X2Y2-specific NFTs. This might erode trust in smaller NFT platforms, pushing collectors toward established marketplaces.

The closure underscores NFTs’ fading speculative hype, with X2Y2’s pivot to AI signaling a broader industry move toward utility—think gaming, digital identity, or tokenized real-world assets. This could accelerate the maturation of NFTs beyond art and collectibles, though it risks alienating speculators who fueled early growth. U.S. Senator Tommy Tuberville is set to introduce a bill in April 2025 that would allow Americans to invest their retirement funds, such as 401(k) plans, in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Known as the Financial Freedom Act, this legislation aims to expand investment options by reversing Department of Labor restrictions that currently limit the types of assets permissible in self-directed retirement accounts.

Tuberville, a Republican from Alabama, has framed this as a move to enhance financial autonomy, aligning it with what he calls a pro-crypto stance from the Trump administration. This is his third attempt at passing such a measure, having introduced it unsuccessfully in 2022 and 2023, with renewed optimism now tied to a shifting political and regulatory climate. Traditional markets could face turbulence as capital reallocates. Equities tied to dollar stability (e.g., U.S. Treasuries) might falter, while crypto-linked assets and firms like Circle—preparing its $4-5 billion IPO—could gain, reshaping investment portfolios.

Marathon Digital Holdings (now MARA Holdings Inc.) announced a $2 billion at-the-market (ATM) stock offering aimed at raising capital to purchase additional Bitcoin, among other general corporate purposes. This strategy involves selling shares incrementally through investment firms like Barclays, Cantor Fitzgerald, and others, with the proceeds intended to bolster its Bitcoin reserves and support operational needs. Marathon currently holds 46,376 BTC, making it the second largest publicly traded company in terms of Bitcoin ownership, behind MicroStrategy.

This move reflects a shift from relying solely on mining to direct market purchases, adapting to challenges like the 2024 Bitcoin halving, which reduced mining rewards, and rising operational costs. The company plans to allocate approximately 40% of the funds to acquire more Bitcoin, with the rest supporting working capital and corporate expenses.

PumpSwap, a decentralized exchange (DEX) on the Solana blockchain, has been generating significant revenue, reportedly pulling in millions in fees and maintaining a strong position within the Solana ecosystem. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have faced volatility, partly due to macroeconomic factors like tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could influence global trade, inflation, and investor sentiment toward risk assets like crypto.

The tariffs, aimed at countries like China, Canada, and Mexico, have sparked concerns about economic uncertainty, potentially dampening demand for Bitcoin as a risk-on asset while boosting interest in alternatives like gold. Despite this, PumpSwap’s success suggests that certain sectors of the crypto market, particularly DeFi platforms on high-performance blockchains like Solana, might be weathering the storm better than others. Its reported 710,000 traders and over 32 million swaps highlight its activity, though a cooling memecoin frenzy on Solana could pose challenges.

Bybit recorded a remarkable recovery in March 2025, attracting $3.61 billion in capital inflows, outpacing Binance’s $3.545 billion for the same period. This surge came after a significant setback in February 2025, when Bybit suffered a major hack, losing approximately $1.5 billion in Ethereum due to a sophisticated attack linked to North Korea’s Lazarus Group. The hack exploited vulnerabilities in Bybit’s cold wallet transfer process, shaking user confidence and triggering massive outflows. This turnaround highlights Bybit’s resilience and the competitive dynamics among centralized exchanges (CEXs) in 2025’s volatile crypto landscape.

Bybit’s rebound can be attributed to several strategic moves: swift crisis management, securing emergency loans to cover losses, and implementing security enhancements like the Retail Price Improvement (RPI) mechanism to boost liquidity. These efforts restored trust, as evidenced by the return of users and capital, positioning Bybit ahead of Binance in March inflows. Binance, while still the largest exchange by trading volume, saw slightly lower inflows, possibly reflecting a stabilization after absorbing much of Bybit’s fleeing user’s post-hack.

The implications of Bybit leading centralized exchanges (CEXs) with $3.61 billion in March inflows, surpassing Binance after its February hack, ripple across the crypto ecosystem. The inflow surge signals that Bybit has regained user trust post-hack. Its rapid response—securing funds, upgrading security, and introducing features like RPI—demonstrates operational resilience, potentially solidifying its reputation as a reliable CEX. Outpacing Binance in inflows could help Bybit chip away at Binance’s dominance, especially if it sustains this momentum. It might attract more institutional and retail users seeking alternatives.

The hack exposed vulnerabilities. With increased inflows, Bybit becomes a bigger target, meaning any future security lapse could be catastrophic. Binance, despite its volume lead, losing the inflow race suggests it’s not invincible. It may need to innovate or double down on user incentives to reclaim momentum. The $3.545 billion inflow is still massive, but slower growth compared to Bybit might hint at market saturation or a shift in user preference post-hack fallout.

For the Crypto Market

Bybit’s rise could intensify rivalry among CEXs, driving better services, lower fees, and enhanced security—ultimately benefiting users. The hack and recovery underscore the persistent threat of cyberattacks. Other exchanges may preemptively bolster defenses, and users might prioritize platforms with proven recovery track records. The $3.61 billion flowing into Bybit reflects confidence in CEXs despite risks. This could fuel bullish sentiment, pushing trading volumes and crypto prices higher in the short term.

Large inflows and past hacks might draw regulators’ attention, especially if tied to groups like Lazarus. CEXs could face stricter compliance demands, impacting operations. Bybit’s recovery might temporarily quiet calls for DEX adoption, but another major hack could flip the narrative, accelerating the shift to decentralized platforms. If the Lazarus Group link holds, it ties crypto to international security concerns, potentially influencing policies on digital assets in regions like the U.S. or South Korea. This shift could reshape user behavior, exchange strategies, and even the regulatory landscape. Which angle are you most curious about?

Bybit overtaking Binance in March 2025 inflows ($3.61 billion vs. $3.545 billion) after its February hack has several implications for Binance, the long-standing leader in the centralized exchange (CEX) space. Binance has historically dominated by trading volume and user base, but Bybit’s inflow lead signals a potential shift in user preference. If Bybit sustains this edge, Binance could lose ground in the race for new capital and active traders. To counter Bybit’s momentum, Binance might need to roll out new features, lower fees, or enhance its offerings (e.g., staking, derivatives). It can’t coast on its reputation alone anymore.

Binance absorbed many of Bybit’s users after the February hack, boosting its inflows then. However, Bybit’s recovery and March lead might make Binance seem less of a “safe haven” if users perceive Bybit as more resilient or rewarding. If Binance’s slightly lower inflows ($3.545 billion) reflect a plateau rather than growth, users might question whether it’s keeping pace with competitors’ improvements. Inflows drive trading activity, which fuels fees—Binance’s primary revenue source. A dip in relative inflows could signal slower revenue growth compared to Bybit, though Binance’s sheer volume ($1.12 trillion in March spot and derivatives, per past trends) still dwarfs Bybit’s.

Binance might redirect resources to marketing or security upgrades to reclaim dominance, potentially straining budgets or shifting focus from other projects like its blockchain ecosystem BNB Chain. Binance benefited from Bybit’s February stumble, but Bybit’s rebound suggests Binance didn’t lock in those gains. Binance may need to double down on loyalty programs or incentives to retain users who sampled it during the chaos. While Binance hasn’t faced a hack of Bybit’s scale recently, Bybit’s recovery could pressure Binance to publicly reinforce its own security measures to avoid being seen as vulnerable by comparison.

This isn’t an immediate dethroning—Binance’s volume and global reach remain unmatched—but it’s a crack in the armor. If Bybit (or others) consistently outpaces Binance in inflows, it could erode Binance’s psychological edge as the “default” CEX. Binance’s size has made it a regulatory target (e.g., past U.S. fines). Bybit’s rise might split scrutiny, giving Binance breathing room—or intensify it if regulators see CEX competition as a systemic risk. Binance isn’t in crisis; $3.545 billion in inflows is still colossal. But Bybit’s lead is a wake-up call. Binance might respond with aggressive user acquisition tactics, security PR, or product enhancements to reassert dominance.