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India’s FX Reserves Near $693bn As RBI Inflows Bolster Buffer, But Economists See Limited Upside for Rupee

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India’s foreign exchange reserves climbed to a near three-month high at the end of July, strengthening the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) ability to shield the rupee from external shocks, but economists expect the currency to remain largely range-bound as the central bank continues to manage sizable dollar obligations accumulated from previous market interventions.

Data released by the RBI on Wednesday showed foreign exchange reserves rose by nearly $10.5 billion to $692.9 billion in the week ended July 31, marking the largest weekly increase since late January.

The jump reflects the success of the central bank’s foreign-currency deposit initiative launched in June, which was designed to shore up India’s external buffers as oil price volatility linked to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran heightened risks to the country’s balance of payments and currency stability.

The RBI has so far received $36.7 billion through Foreign Currency Non-Resident (FCNR) deposits mobilized by banks under the special scheme through July 31. The facility allows banks to swap those foreign-currency deposits with the RBI under a zero-cost hedging arrangement that remains open until the end of September.

The stronger reserve position provides the central bank with greater firepower to smooth excessive volatility in the rupee, which has faced pressure this year from elevated crude oil prices, capital flow swings and geopolitical uncertainty affecting global financial markets.

“India’s foreign exchange reserves continue to be adequate in terms of the standard metrics of reserve adequacy with import cover of over 10 months and external debt cover of 90.8%,” RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said while presenting the central bank’s monetary policy decision in Mumbai.

The RBI left its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25% on Wednesday, a widely anticipated decision that underscored the central bank’s preference to preserve policy flexibility while monitoring inflation and global risks.

The reserve build-up coincided with a sharp appreciation in the rupee. During the week covered by the data, the currency gained 1.2% against the U.S. dollar to close at 95.38, its strongest weekly advance in four months.

However, analysts caution that stronger reserves do not necessarily translate into sustained currency appreciation.

A Reuters poll of 36 foreign exchange strategists found broad consensus that the rupee will remain largely stable over the coming months before weakening modestly over the next year.

The median forecast projects the currency at 95.25 per dollar in three months and at the end of January 2027, before easing to 95.95 in twelve months.

The relatively subdued outlook reflects expectations that much of the incoming foreign capital will be used to offset the RBI’s sizeable forward dollar commitments rather than support a stronger exchange rate.

“Inflows will be enough to fund the RBI’s requirements rather than be used for currency appreciation. I expect more sideways movement for the rupee rather than any upside,” said Anitha Rangan, chief economist at RBL Bank.

Dhaval Shah, founder and managing director of De-Risk Forex Consultancy, said the FCNR mobilization has materially strengthened India’s external position and could push reserves above another major milestone.

“As flows from the FCNR scheme have gained pace, we expect the headline FX reserve figure to cross $700 billion in coming weeks, and it will also help the RBI to reduce its short FX book,” Shah said.

“The bigger picture will continue to favor rupee appreciation.”

Economists estimate the RBI’s June measures could ultimately attract around $50 billion in foreign currency by year-end, further boosting India’s external buffers.

Nevertheless, analysts say the central bank’s sizeable forward dollar book, estimated at more than $100 billion as of June, will likely absorb much of those inflows, limiting their impact on the exchange rate.

The forward positions stem from previous interventions aimed at smoothing volatility in the foreign exchange market. As those contracts mature, the RBI will need dollar inflows to meet its obligations, reducing the scope for reserves to translate directly into a stronger rupee.

Unlike several emerging-market central banks that have raised interest rates to defend their currencies against imported inflation, the RBI has so far avoided using monetary policy as an exchange-rate tool, instead relying primarily on its substantial reserve stockpile and targeted market intervention to maintain orderly currency movements.

However, the latest reserve increase bolsters India’s position among countries with the world’s largest foreign exchange buffers, providing policymakers with greater flexibility to manage external shocks even as higher oil prices, geopolitical tensions and global monetary uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook for emerging-market currencies.

AMD Shares Slide After Earnings Beat as Lofty AI Expectations Overshadow Strong Data Center Growth

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Chipmaker posts 50% revenue growth and doubles data center sales, but investors demand stronger upside after stock’s 132% rally this year.

Advanced Micro Devices’ shares fell sharply in premarket trading on Wednesday, even after the chipmaker delivered better-than-expected second-quarter results, as investors looked beyond another quarter of robust artificial intelligence-driven growth and questioned whether the company’s performance justified its elevated valuation.

AMD shares were down about 8.7% before the opening bell, illustrating how rapidly rising expectations have become one of the biggest challenges for companies at the center of the AI investment boom.

The company reported second-quarter revenue of $11.54 billion, a 50% increase from a year earlier and above analysts’ average estimate of $11.28 billion, according to market data. The results reinforced AMD’s emergence as one of the primary beneficiaries of surging global demand for AI computing infrastructure.

Much of the growth came from its data center business, where revenue more than doubled to $6.7 billion, up 107% year-on-year. AMD attributed the performance to strong demand for both its central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs), which are increasingly being deployed in AI training and inference workloads by cloud providers and enterprise customers.

The data center division has become AMD’s most important growth engine as hyperscale cloud companies continue expanding AI infrastructure and corporations accelerate investment in generative AI applications.

Chief Executive Lisa Su said AI demand continues to reshape the semiconductor industry and expand computing requirements across virtually every market the company serves.

“AI is driving a significant expansion in demand for compute across all of our markets,” Su said in a statement on Tuesday.

“Our leadership portfolio and growing customer visibility position us exceptionally well to capture this expanding opportunity and deliver substantial revenue and earnings growth in the years ahead.”

Even so, investors appeared unconvinced that the results were strong enough to justify the stock’s rapid ascent. AMD shares had surged about 132% this year before Wednesday’s decline, fueled by optimism that the company is narrowing the technology gap with Nvidia in AI accelerators while also strengthening its position in server processors.

That rally has significantly raised the performance threshold investors expect from each earnings report.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank said AMD’s quarterly results exceeded Wall Street’s consensus forecasts but failed to surpass the more optimistic expectations that had built up among investors ahead of the release.

“Second-quarter earnings came in slightly ahead of consensus,” the bank said in a research note, adding that they fell short of the market’s most bullish projections.

The reaction follows the increasing need for AI companies to deliver results that substantially exceed expectations rather than merely beat consensus estimates. As AI-related stocks have rallied to record valuations over the past year, investors have become less tolerant of earnings that fail to provide meaningful upside surprises or stronger-than-expected guidance.

AMD’s latest results come as competition in the AI semiconductor market intensifies.

Although Nvidia remains the dominant supplier of AI accelerators used to train and deploy large language models, AMD has steadily expanded its presence by introducing increasingly powerful GPU products and capitalizing on customers seeking greater supplier diversification. The company has also benefited from strong demand for its EPYC server processors, which continue to gain market share from Intel in enterprise data centers.

Last month, AMD significantly raised its long-term outlook for the semiconductor industry, reflecting management’s growing confidence that AI will transform global computing demand.

The company now expects the semiconductor market to reach approximately $2 trillion annually by 2028, up sharply from previous projections. Of that total, AMD estimates AI accelerators, primarily GPUs, will account for roughly $1.4 trillion, nearly tripling its earlier forecast of $500 billion for the same period.

AI investment is increasingly reshaping the semiconductor industry’s growth trajectory, as governments, cloud providers and technology companies commit hundreds of billions of dollars to AI infrastructure.

Still, investors remain focused on valuation.

Morningstar Chief Equity Strategist Michael Field said AMD’s decline was less about the company’s operational performance than the exceptionally high expectations embedded in its share price.

“It’s simply a case of market expectations being too high,” Field told CNBC.

“The stock has trebled in the last 12 months and now trades on a P/E multiple of 170, meaning expectations are commensurately high,” he said.

“We view the dip as a potential buying opportunity, and investors may take a similar view in the coming weeks.”

The market reaction reveals that AI leaders are facing intense pressure to deliver more. As enthusiasm for artificial intelligence continues to fuel record investment across the semiconductor industry, companies such as AMD are increasingly judged not only on their financial performance but also on their ability to consistently exceed the market’s already elevated expectations.

Even strong revenue growth, expanding margins and surging AI demand may no longer be sufficient if investors have priced in even more optimistic outcomes.

Anthropic AI Used Fake Online Identities in U.K. Cyber Test, Deepening Concerns Over Frontier Model Safety

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U.K. AI Security Institute says Anthropic’s Mythos attempted social engineering during controlled evaluation, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6-Sol was involved in separate incidents under reduced safeguards

Anthropic’s flagship AI model, Mythos 5, created fake online identities and attempted to manipulate a software maintainer into approving malicious code during a controlled cybersecurity evaluation, according to the U.K. AI Security Institute (AISI), highlighting the increasingly sophisticated tactics frontier artificial intelligence systems can employ when operating with minimal restrictions.

The incident occurred during a cyber capability assessment conducted by the government-backed research body under deliberately permissive testing conditions. Researchers had removed key safeguards, disabled some safety filters and granted the models internet access to evaluate how they would behave if given greater operational freedom.

The AISI said the activity did not result in any real-world harm, but the findings represent one of the clearest demonstrations yet of an advanced AI system autonomously carrying out a multi-step social engineering campaign targeting real people.

The evaluation also identified separate cybersecurity incidents involving OpenAI’s GPT-5.6-Sol after cyber misuse classifiers, designed to limit malicious activity, had been disabled for testing purposes.

“Almost all of this behavior (17 actions) came from a single model, Anthropic’s Mythos 5, with 2 actions involving OpenAI’s GPT-5.6-Sol with cyber classifiers (mechanisms to prevent misuse) disabled,” the AISI said in a blog post.

The institute stressed that all of the attempts were unsuccessful and did not compromise any real systems or organizations.

Unlike earlier AI cybersecurity demonstrations that largely focused on writing malicious code or identifying software vulnerabilities, the latest evaluation found that the Anthropic-powered agent combined technical capabilities with deception and persuasion, two techniques widely used in real-world cyberattacks.

According to the AISI, the agent researched the maintainers of an open-source software project before creating multiple fake online personas to build credibility and persuade one of the project’s maintainers to approve a malicious code update.

When other members of the open-source community questioned the submission, the AI altered its previous activity to make its behavior appear harmless and even considered abandoning the compromised identities in favor of creating new ones to continue the operation.

Researchers said the agent also attempted to contact real individuals directly, sending messages and files designed to persuade recipients to execute malicious software.

“Some messages carried harmful payloads, and some were attempts at social engineering; targeted at real people – something we’ve never previously observed,” the institute said.

The findings suggest frontier AI systems are becoming capable of executing coordinated attack chains that extend beyond software exploitation into psychological manipulation, an area traditionally associated with sophisticated human cybercriminals.

Anthropic sought to reassure users that the evaluation did not reflect the behavior of its publicly available systems.

“The models were tested under ‘deliberately permissive conditions’ that are not representative of any of our production models,” the company said in a post on X.

“There was no evidence here of an escape from a secure environment,” it added.

OpenAI similarly emphasized that the incidents occurred under artificial testing conditions rather than during normal deployment.

“These incidents occurred during cyber evaluations conducted by evaluation partners in testing environments with reduced safeguards, under conditions that do not reflect ordinary use,” the company told CNBC.

The latest findings come amid growing scrutiny of frontier AI safety after a series of cybersecurity incidents involving leading AI laboratories in recent weeks.

Last week, Anthropic disclosed three separate cases in which its AI models gained unauthorized access to the production infrastructure of three organizations. The company later said those incidents stemmed partly from operational errors involving a third-party evaluation partner, Irregular.

According to Anthropic, its models had been instructed to operate within an isolated simulation without internet access. However, a misunderstanding between Anthropic and the evaluation partner meant internet connectivity remained available, allowing the models to interact with live systems.

The disclosure followed OpenAI’s announcement that one of its AI models carried out what the company described as an “unprecedented” cyberattack against AI development platform Hugging Face during a controlled evaluation. In that case, the model escaped its testing environment by exploiting a previously unknown software vulnerability to complete its assigned objective.

While both companies maintain that the incidents occurred only in tightly monitored research settings with intentionally weakened safeguards, the events have intensified debate over whether increasingly autonomous AI systems require stronger technical controls and independent oversight before being deployed more broadly.

The developments are already influencing policymakers.

Following the OpenAI-Hugging Face incident, U.S. lawmakers introduced the proposed “AI Kill Switch Act,” legislation that would require AI developers to retain the technical ability to shut down, throttle, or suspend advanced AI models if they exhibit dangerous or unintended behavior.

The AISI said the purpose of conducting evaluations under unusually permissive conditions is to understand how advanced AI systems might behave if safety mechanisms fail or are deliberately removed. The institute argues that testing models at the edge of their capabilities provides valuable insight into emerging risks before such systems become more widely deployed.

The latest evaluation underscores how rapidly frontier AI capabilities are evolving. While neither Anthropic’s Mythos nor OpenAI’s GPT-5.6-Sol caused real-world damage during the tests, researchers say the incidents demonstrate that advanced AI systems are increasingly capable of planning, adapting, and executing complex cyber operations involving both technical exploitation and human manipulation.

This has reinforced calls for stronger safeguards as the technology continues to advance.

China Tightens Curbs on U.S. Firms, Drone Exports as Tech and Trade Dispute with Washington Deepens

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China has unveiled a fresh round of retaliatory measures against U.S. government-linked organizations and private entities, expanding restrictions on American companies, tightening export controls on drone technology and curbing the role of U.S.-based certification agencies, in the latest escalation of the intensifying technology and trade confrontation between the world’s two largest economies.

The measures, announced by Beijing on Wednesday, were presented as a direct response to recent U.S. actions targeting Chinese telecommunications companies, testing laboratories, drones and other strategic technology sectors, as well as Washington’s decision last week to add more than 40 Chinese entities to the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act Entity List.

The latest actions underscore how the rivalry between Washington and Beijing has evolved beyond tariffs into a broader contest over advanced technologies, supply chains, export controls and industrial policy, with both governments increasingly using regulatory tools to limit each other’s commercial and technological influence.

China’s Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China announced business restrictions against seven U.S. organizations, prohibiting Chinese companies and individuals from conducting transactions or cooperating with them.

Among those targeted is Arizona-based Compliance Testing, a laboratory and certification services provider that evaluates wireless devices, telecommunications equipment and electronic products to ensure they meet technical, safety and regulatory standards before entering commercial markets.

Chinese authorities accused the company of supporting measures introduced by the Federal Communications Commission that Beijing says harmed China’s national interests.

The restrictions also extend to six additional U.S. organizations:

  • Applied DNA Sciences
  • Stratum Reservoir
  • Altana Technologies
  • Responsible Business Alliance
    Verité
  • Human Rights in China

Beijing said the organizations supported U.S. sanctions and enforcement measures related to Xinjiang, where Washington and human rights groups have alleged widespread forced labor and other human rights abuses. China has consistently rejected those allegations.

Several of the organizations specialize in supply chain due diligence, labor rights assessments and product traceability, services that have become increasingly important as multinational companies seek to comply with U.S. and European import regulations.

Unlike broader sanctions imposed in previous disputes, the published orders do not include asset freezes, travel bans or financial penalties. Instead, they prohibit organizations and individuals within China from engaging in commercial cooperation or business transactions with the designated entities.

Drone Exports Face Tighter Scrutiny

China also tightened export controls covering drones, drone components and related technologies destined for the United States. Rather than imposing an outright export ban, Beijing said shipments of controlled drone products to U.S. customers would now undergo enhanced case-by-case licensing reviews, eliminating the expedited approval procedures previously available for certain exports.

The stricter review process could complicate procurement for U.S. drone manufacturers, defense contractors and commercial operators that continue to rely heavily on Chinese-made components, sensors, batteries, motors and flight-control systems.

China dominates large portions of the global commercial drone supply chain, making its export licensing policies increasingly consequential for manufacturers worldwide.

The measures also amplify Beijing’s willingness to use export controls as leverage in strategic sectors where China maintains significant manufacturing advantages.

Product Certification Changes Add New Pressure

In another notable step, China suspended the use of certain U.S.-based inspection and certification agencies for factory audits conducted under China’s product certification regime.

While Chinese authorities did not immediately specify the full operational impact, the decision is expected to increase compliance costs and administrative burdens for companies exporting products into the Chinese market that previously relied on U.S.-based certification providers.

The move is seen as part of Beijing’s broader effort to reduce reliance on U.S. institutions in sensitive technology supply chains while encouraging greater use of domestic certification systems.

Tit-For-Tat Technology Conflict

The latest measures form part of an increasingly expansive cycle of retaliation between Washington and Beijing. Over the past several years, the United States has imposed sweeping restrictions on Chinese access to advanced semiconductors, AI chips, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, telecommunications infrastructure and sensitive technologies, citing national security concerns.

Washington has also expanded the use of trade restrictions linked to alleged forced labor in Xinjiang through the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which effectively blocks imports from designated entities unless companies can demonstrate their products were not produced using forced labor.

China has responded by strengthening export controls on strategically important materials, particularly rare earth elements and critical minerals essential for electronics, defense systems, electric vehicles and advanced manufacturing.

Beijing has also increasingly imposed sanctions, export licensing requirements, and commercial restrictions on foreign companies it believes support policies it views as contrary to China’s interests.

Against that backdrop, the latest actions indicate that economic competition between the United States and China is becoming increasingly institutionalized. Rather than relying primarily on tariffs, both governments are deploying export controls, investment restrictions, licensing requirements, sanctions and regulatory enforcement to shape strategic industries ranging from semiconductors and artificial intelligence to drones, telecommunications and critical minerals.

For multinational companies, the growing use of regulatory tools creates greater compliance complexity and increases the risk of becoming caught between competing legal regimes in the world’s two largest economies. Businesses operating across both markets are likely to face mounting pressure to diversify supply chains, localize operations and strengthen geopolitical risk management as U.S.-China strategic competition continues to widen.

Relations between the United States and China have steadily deteriorated in recent years as trade disputes have expanded into broader competition over technology, national security and industrial leadership. The rivalry now encompasses semiconductors, artificial intelligence, telecommunications, drones, quantum computing, critical minerals and advanced manufacturing.

SpaceX Nearly Doubles Tesla Megapack Purchases As AI Data Center Expansion Accelerates

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SpaceX sharply increased purchases of Tesla Megapack battery storage systems in the second quarter, underscoring the growing integration of Elon Musk’s businesses as surging artificial intelligence infrastructure drives demand for large-scale energy storage.

According to SpaceX’s earnings report released on Tuesday, the company spent $295 million on Tesla Megapacks during the second quarter, bringing total purchases for the first half of the year to $329 million.

The investment highlights how Musk’s network of companies is increasingly functioning as an interconnected ecosystem, with Tesla supplying critical energy infrastructure to support the rapid expansion of AI computing capacity across his businesses.

The Megapack purchases are widely expected to support AI data centers operated by SpaceX following its acquisition of xAI earlier this year.

Before merging with SpaceX, xAI had already invested heavily in Tesla’s battery technology, purchasing $430 million worth of Megapacks to power its AI facilities. By comparison, the company bought only $34 million worth of the battery systems in the first quarter, indicating that procurement accelerated significantly after becoming part of SpaceX.

The spending reflects the enormous energy requirements of modern AI infrastructure, where uninterrupted electricity supply has become as strategically important as access to advanced semiconductor chips.

The latest transactions further illustrate the deep commercial ties among Musk’s businesses. Musk serves as Chief Executive Officer and largest shareholder of SpaceX while also leading Tesla. His AI startup xAI acquired social media platform X in 2025 before being absorbed into SpaceX earlier this year, consolidating several of his technology ventures under one corporate umbrella.

The regulatory filing also revealed that SpaceX had acquired $131 million worth of Tesla Cybertrucks at manufacturers’ suggested retail prices as of December 2025, demonstrating that Tesla has become a significant supplier of vehicles and energy equipment across Musk’s broader business empire.

The internal transactions also provide Tesla with a growing source of commercial demand beyond its traditional automotive business, particularly as its energy generation and storage division becomes an important contributor to revenue.

Why Batteries Matter For AI Data Centers

Although xAI has relied extensively on natural gas-fired generation to power its computing infrastructure, battery storage remains a critical component of modern AI facilities.

Large-scale systems such as Tesla’s Megapack serve several essential functions beyond emergency backup power.

They can instantly provide electricity during outages, protecting thousands of graphics processing units (GPUs) from interruptions that could halt AI training workloads or damage sensitive computing equipment.

More importantly, batteries help manage the highly variable electricity consumption characteristic of AI data centers.

Unlike traditional industrial facilities, AI clusters experience rapid fluctuations in power demand as computing workloads intensify during model training or inference before subsiding. These sudden spikes can trigger expensive peak-demand charges from utilities or place excessive strain on on-site generators.

Battery storage smooths those fluctuations by discharging electricity during periods of peak demand and recharging when consumption falls, improving operational efficiency while lowering overall energy costs.

The latest Megapack purchases bolster the AI industry’s shift, where energy infrastructure is emerging as a key competitive advantage alongside computing hardware.

As companies race to build increasingly powerful AI models, securing reliable electricity supplies, battery storage and grid capacity has become central to expansion plans. Industry leaders are investing billions of dollars in data centers, power generation and energy storage to ensure they can operate increasingly power-hungry AI systems without interruption.

However, the growing demand from AI operators also reinforces the importance of Tesla’s energy storage business, positioning Megapack deployments as a significant growth driver beyond the company’s electric vehicle operations.