China’s planned export restrictions on rare earth minerals could jeopardize as much as $6.5 trillion worth of industrial production outside the country, marking one of the biggest supply chain risks facing the global economy as geopolitical competition increasingly extends into critical minerals, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In its latest Global Critical Minerals Outlook released Thursday, the Paris-based energy watchdog warned that if Beijing fully implements export controls announced last year, industries ranging from automotive manufacturing and consumer electronics to renewable energy and defense could face significant supply disruptions because of their overwhelming dependence on Chinese processing capacity.
The warning underpins the growing importance of critical minerals in the global AI, semiconductor and clean-energy race. While governments have spent years trying to diversify supplies of chips and batteries, the IEA said critical mineral processing remains one of the world’s most concentrated supply chains, leaving advanced economies particularly exposed to geopolitical shocks.
“Our latest analysis shows that vast amounts of economic value depend on relatively small volumes of critical minerals, whose supply chains remain highly concentrated and are therefore vulnerable,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.
A Small Group of Minerals With Outsized Economic Importance
Rare earth elements comprise a group of 17 metals that are used in relatively small quantities but are indispensable to modern manufacturing. They are critical components in electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, smartphones, advanced semiconductors, industrial robotics, military equipment, aerospace systems, medical devices and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Although the physical quantities required are relatively small, their absence can halt production of high-value products, giving the minerals strategic importance far beyond their market size.
According to the IEA, full implementation of China’s export licensing regime could place approximately $6.5 trillion worth of downstream manufacturing outside China at risk, with the United States and Europe accounting for nearly half of the potential economic exposure.
China’s influence stems not only from mining but also from its overwhelming control of mineral processing. The country is the world’s largest producer and refiner of rare earth elements, giving it a commanding position across virtually every stage of the supply chain.
Last October, Beijing expanded export controls to cover additional rare earth materials and introduced new licensing requirements. Although implementation was later delayed by one year, the measures remain a source of uncertainty for manufacturers worldwide.
The restrictions are widely viewed as part of China’s broader strategy to strengthen control over critical technologies and strategic resources amid intensifying trade and technology tensions with the United States and its allies. For manufacturers, the concern extends beyond outright export bans. Licensing requirements can slow shipments, increase compliance costs and create uncertainty over future supplies, complicating production planning for industries that rely on just-in-time manufacturing.
The IEA also highlighted growing risks surrounding graphite, another mineral where China dominates global processing. Graphite is a key material used in lithium-ion battery anodes for electric vehicles and energy storage systems.
China accounts for more than 90% of global processed graphite production, making it another critical chokepoint in clean-energy supply chains.
Beijing announced export controls on graphite alongside its rare earth measures before postponing implementation. According to the IEA, if those controls eventually take full effect, they could put an additional $300 billion worth of downstream industrial production outside China at risk, further increasing vulnerabilities for global manufacturers.
AI And Defense Industries Face Rising Exposure
The report comes as demand for critical minerals continues to accelerate because of artificial intelligence, electrification and military modernization. The AI boom has sharply increased demand for advanced semiconductors, servers, networking equipment and data centers, all of which depend on sophisticated electronic components containing rare earth materials.
At the same time, defense spending has risen across many advanced economies, increasing demand for precision-guided weapons, radar systems, fighter aircraft, submarines and satellites that also rely heavily on rare earth magnets and specialized alloys.
The convergence of AI, electrification and defense spending is creating structural growth in critical mineral demand while supply remains geographically concentrated. That imbalance has prompted governments to increasingly classify critical minerals as strategic national security assets rather than ordinary industrial commodities.
Western Governments Accelerate Diversification
In response to growing geopolitical risks, governments across North America, Europe, and parts of Asia have substantially increased investment in alternative supply chains. According to the IEA, public financing commitments for new critical mineral projects increased more than fourfold between 2023 and 2025, reaching $65 billion.
The funding is supporting new mining operations, refining facilities, recycling technologies and processing infrastructure aimed at reducing dependence on Chinese supply chains.
Progress is beginning to emerge.
The IEA said new rare earth refining projects in the United States and Malaysia reduced China’s share of global rare earth refining capacity to 85% last year, down from 90% in 2023. If all currently planned projects are completed on schedule, China’s market share could decline further to around 70% by 2035.
While that would represent meaningful diversification, China would still retain a dominant position in the global supply chain, underscoring how difficult it will be for competing countries to replicate decades of investment, industrial expertise and integrated processing capacity.
Globally, governments are increasingly treating supply chains for semiconductors, batteries and critical minerals as strategic infrastructure, prompting industrial policies aimed at reshoring production and reducing geopolitical vulnerabilities.
The United States, European Union, Japan, South Korea, and several resource-rich countries have introduced subsidies, tax incentives and financing programs to accelerate domestic production and processing of critical minerals.
However, building alternative supply chains remains a long-term undertaking. Developing new mines typically takes years, while constructing refining facilities requires significant capital investment, technical expertise, and environmental approvals.
Analysts thus note that until those new projects become operational at scale, manufacturers around the world are likely to remain heavily dependent on Chinese supplies of rare earths and graphite. This will leave global industries exposed to potential disruptions as geopolitical competition over strategic resources intensifies.






