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Bank of England’s Private Credit Collateral List Raises Questions Over Market Liquidity

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The Bank of England’s decision to accept a wider range of private and structured credit assets as collateral in its lending operations is raising questions over how readily those securities can be traded outside the central bank, as tighter credit conditions and mounting losses put pressure on the rapidly expanding private credit market.

“It is possible that the non-BoE market for these assets might not be as active as it was because there’s a lower appetite for credit in private markets,” said Moyeen Islam, a fixed-income analyst at Barclays.

The issue highlights a potential tension in the Bank of England’s collateral framework: assets that are acceptable for central-bank funding may not necessarily have deep or reliable secondary markets when investors become more risk-averse.

The global private credit industry, now worth about $3.5 trillion, has expanded rapidly over the past several years as investors have sought higher yields than those available in traditional fixed-income markets. The sector has increasingly financed borrowers that may have limited access to conventional bank lending.

That growth, however, has brought greater scrutiny from regulators and investors, particularly as a series of negative headlines, valuation concerns and high-profile losses have raised questions about credit quality and the ability of private-market lenders to absorb a downturn.

Riskier Assets Enter The Collateral Pool

The Bank of England’s Level C collateral list includes securities linked to a range of consumer, vehicle and small-business loans, some of which carry higher levels of credit or residual-value risk.

Among them are loan notes issued by Temese Funding, linked to Investec, which S&P Global says are backed by heavy-equipment and vehicle leases. The leases feature large final instalments, commonly known as balloon payments, which can leave lenders exposed to the value of the underlying assets when borrowers reach the end of their contracts.

The treatment of such assets is becoming an increasingly important issue across Europe.

The European Central Bank effectively removed similar products from its eligible collateral pool in January following a change in its approach to residual-value risk, according to an analysis by law firm Jones Day.

The contrast between the ECB and Bank of England approaches illustrates the difficulty central banks face in determining which private-market assets can provide dependable liquidity during periods of market stress. The BoE does not disclose which individual securities on its Level C list have actually been pledged as collateral in its Indexed Long-Term Repo operation, or ILTR.

Mortgage-Backed Assets Also Face Scrutiny

The list also includes securities issued by Harben Finance, which public filings show is controlled by Barclays. The company owns payment streams from buy-to-let mortgages originated by former UK lender Bradford & Bingley before the bank was rescued by the UK government during the 2008 financial crisis.

Some tranches of Harben Finance debt have experienced multiple rating downgrades over the past year, with Fitch Ratings downgrading some securities twice and S&P Global lowering its rating once.

The presence of such assets on the BoE’s collateral list does not necessarily mean the central bank considers them high-risk or expects losses. Rather, eligibility allows financial institutions to use qualifying securities to obtain central-bank liquidity subject to the Bank’s collateral and risk-management framework.

The distinction is nevertheless important because collateral eligibility can provide liquidity to assets that might become difficult to finance privately during periods of market stress.

Other securities eligible for the BoE’s lending operations include loan notes backed by credit-card receivables from NewDay, the KKR-backed consumer finance company.

Fitch has said the underlying credit-card portfolio was aimed at higher-risk borrowers, adding another layer of consumer-credit exposure to the pool of securities eligible for central-bank financing.

The BoE list also includes debt issued in 2024 by the Small Business Origination Loan Trust, which packages repayments from business owners who obtained financing through Funding Circle’s lending platform.

S&P Global said in an August 21 note that almost one-fifth of the loans in that Funding Circle pool were likely to default. Funding Circle declined to comment.

The potential default rate matters because small businesses are generally more vulnerable to higher borrowing costs, weaker consumer demand and deteriorating cash flows than larger companies with greater access to diversified sources of funding.

Why The Collateral Issue Matters

The developments point to a broader question confronting central banks as private credit becomes an increasingly important part of the financial system: how liquid are these assets when liquidity is most needed?

Traditional government bonds and highly traded corporate securities generally have established markets and transparent pricing. Private credit and securitized loan assets can be harder to value and trade, particularly when investors simultaneously seek to reduce risk.

That situation becomes crucial during periods of financial stress. If private-market demand weakens, borrowers and lenders may find it harder to sell or refinance assets without accepting substantially lower prices. Central-bank collateral operations can provide an alternative source of liquidity, but they do not eliminate the underlying credit risk.

For the Bank of England, the challenge is therefore not simply determining whether an asset is eligible as collateral. It is ensuring that the valuation, haircuts and other safeguards adequately protect the central bank if market liquidity deteriorates and defaults rise.

The issue also has implications beyond the UK. The $3.5 trillion private credit market has become increasingly interconnected with banks, insurers, asset managers and securitization markets. A deterioration in private-credit portfolios could therefore transmit losses beyond the funds and lenders that originated the loans.

While the BoE’s framework provides an important liquidity backstop for eligible assets for now, the widening scrutiny of the collateral pool suggests that investors are becoming more focused on a critical distinction: an asset can be acceptable to a central bank for funding purposes without necessarily being easy to sell in the market when confidence disappears.

Bank of England Takes on More Risk as UK Banks Pledge £17.8 Billion in Higher-Risk Assets

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British banks are increasingly turning to the Bank of England’s funding facilities to pledge higher-risk and potentially less liquid assets as collateral, exposing the central bank to a growing pool of loans and securities tied to areas such as vehicle leasing, store-card lending and buy-to-let mortgages.

A Reuters review of Bank of England filings shows that banks pledged £1.9 billion of the central bank’s highest-risk category of collateral, known as “Level C”, at its weekly auction for six-month funds on August 18. That was the largest amount since March 2020 and roughly three times the £600 million pledged a week earlier.

The increase has pushed the total value of Level C collateral held by the BoE through its Indexed Long-Term Repo facility to about £17.8 billion, according to Reuters calculations. That compares with £8.7 billion a year earlier and less than £1 billion in mid-2024.

The figures provide a window into an unintended risk that can emerge as central banks unwind years of extraordinary monetary stimulus. By accepting a broad range of collateral, the BoE can provide banks with access to central-bank liquidity while reducing the amount of cash circulating in the financial system following the reversal of its £895 billion quantitative-easing programme.

But the growing use of riskier assets raises questions about the quality and liquidity of collateral ultimately sitting on the central bank’s balance sheet, particularly if private markets become less willing to finance such assets during a period of financial stress.

The BoE said the ILTR was specifically designed to allow financial institutions to use a broad range of assets as collateral. At the same time, its risk-management framework protects the central bank from potential losses.

The facility has become so relevant since the BoE began reversing quantitative easing in 2022. Commercial banks use reserves held at the central bank to settle wholesale transactions, and the ILTR provides a mechanism for banks to obtain term funding against eligible assets as the stock of excess reserves in the financial system declines.

Level C collateral has represented roughly one-fifth to one-quarter of collateral accepted through the ILTR over the past year. Its share has not changed dramatically, but the absolute amount has more than doubled as banks have made greater use of the facility.

“The BoE has got good reasons for wanting to buy grade C assets but there’s a risk that if they do too much then that can encourage bad lending. I think they probably understand that already,” said William Allen, a visiting fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and a former head of the BoE’s money markets division.

The BoE said it continually reviews its collateral framework to ensure that it remains consistent with its risk-tolerance objectives.

The central bank also protects itself by applying larger “haircuts” to riskier assets. That means banks receive less funding than the face value of the securities they pledge, providing the BoE with a buffer if the collateral loses value. Banks also pay a higher interest rate when using riskier collateral.

Still, the composition of the eligible assets underpins the tension between providing liquidity to the banking system and maintaining strict standards around what a central bank is willing to accept.

Reuters’ analysis of the BoE’s Level C collateral list found several types of assets that are no longer accepted under tighter European Central Bank rules. These include securitized debt linked to mortgages and other loans, as well as assets backed by vehicle leases and higher-risk consumer credit.

This has gained attention because securitization played a central role in the build-up to the 2008 global financial crisis. Packaging loans into securities enabled lenders to transfer credit risk and generate new lending, but the process also helped obscure the underlying risks in some parts of the financial system.

The ECB has tightened its collateral rules in recent years amid concerns that eligibility for central-bank operations can effectively create an additional source of demand for assets that may become difficult to sell during a market shock.

The BoE’s broader framework therefore gives British banks greater flexibility in accessing central-bank liquidity, but potentially leaves the institution more exposed to assets whose market liquidity could deteriorate sharply in stressed conditions.

“It is possible that the non-BoE market for these assets might not be as active as it was because there’s a lower appetite for credit in private markets,” said Moyeen Islam, a fixed-income analyst at Barclays.

That concern comes as private credit has expanded into a roughly $3.5 trillion global industry. The sector has attracted investors with the prospect of higher yields than traditional fixed-income markets, while regulators have increasingly scrutinised underwriting standards, valuation practices and the ability of borrowers to withstand higher financing costs.

The assets eligible for the BoE facility provide examples of the types of credit exposure involved.

Investec-linked Temese Funding has loan notes backed by heavy-equipment and vehicle leases, according to S&P Global. The leases include large payments due toward the end of their terms, commonly known as balloon payments. The ECB effectively excluded such products from its eligible collateral pool in January following changes to its rules, according to an analysis by law firm Jones Day.

The BoE does not disclose which specific securities from its Level C list are actually pledged by banks through the ILTR.

Among the eligible securities are also notes issued by Harben Finance, which public filings show is controlled by Barclays and holds payments from buy-to-let mortgages originated by Bradford & Bingley, the former UK lender that was rescued by the British government during the 2008 financial crisis. Some tranches of the debt have been downgraded twice by Fitch Ratings and once by S&P Global over the past year.

Other eligible assets include loan notes backed by credit-card receivables from KKR-backed NewDay, whose lending has included higher-risk borrowers, according to Fitch.

The BoE’s collateral list also includes debt issued in 2024 by the Small Business Origination Loan Trust, which packages repayments from business owners who obtained financing through Funding Circle’s lending platform.

S&P Global said in an August 21 note that almost one-fifth of the loans in that Funding Circle pool were likely to default. Funding Circle declined to comment.

The immediate risk to the BoE is mitigated by its haircuts, pricing and other safeguards. The larger issue is what the expanding use of Level C collateral says about the underlying credit market.

If banks increasingly need the central bank as a source of liquidity for assets that private investors are reluctant to finance, the ILTR could become an important backstop for segments of the credit market. That would strengthen the BoE’s role as a liquidity provider, but could also increase pressure on the central bank to distinguish between temporary liquidity problems and deterioration in the underlying quality of bank assets.

For now, the rise in Level C collateral does not by itself indicate that British banks are facing a systemic liquidity crisis. It does, however, show that the BoE is accepting exposure to parts of the credit market that European regulators have moved to treat more cautiously, making the quality of its collateral pool a crucial issue for financial stability.

CryptoQuant Analyst Suggests Bitcoin’s Downtrend May Be Nearing Its End as Cycle Momentum Turns Positive

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Bitcoin’s prolonged downtrend may be approaching a turning point, with CryptoQuant analyst Gaah, pointing to improving cycle momentum as a potential sign that the market’s bearish phase is losing strength.

In a chart on X, Gaah noted that the shift, currently reading just above zero at approximately 0.4, raises the probability that Bitcoin is breaking out of its prolonged downtrend and beginning a reversal of the recent bear phase.

The Bitcoin Cycle momentum indicator posted, tracks the strength and direction of Bitcoin’s longer-term cycle momentum, distinguishing broader bullish and bearish regimes against the asset’s price history.

Historical charts spanning 2013 to the present show these momentum phases aligning with major market expansions and contractions.

After remaining negative for roughly eight months, coinciding with a period of price weakness following the October 2025 all-time high near $126,000, the metric has now crossed into positive ground.

However, the analyst emphasized that full confirmation of a reversal requires the indicator to advance into the 20–30 range in the coming weeks, supported by continued upward price recovery. Without that follow-through, the current reading could prove temporary, he noted.

At the time of writing this report, Bitcoin was trading below the $77,000 range, reflecting recent volatility after climbing above the $80,000 level in late August.

The reversal posed a direct test whether August rally was a durable shift in Bitcoin’s macro positioning or simply a byproduct of falling yields that has now gone into reverse.

Bitcoin has struggled to reclaim its all-time high of around $126,000 reached in October 2025, despite staging several recovery attempts in 2026.

The cryptocurrency has remained well below the record level as investors continue to navigate weaker momentum, macroeconomic uncertainty and changing market sentiment.

One of the major factors behind Bitcoin’s inability to return to its peak has been a lack of sustained buying pressure. While institutional investors and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds remain important sources of demand, periods of ETF outflows have limited the strength of Bitcoin’s recovery.

Macroeconomic conditions have also continued to influence investor appetite. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. interest rates, inflation and broader financial conditions has encouraged investors to remain cautious toward risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Despite these challenges, Bitcoin’s recovery from its 2026 lows suggests that demand has not disappeared. Crypto analyst Willy Woo highlighted on Monday that Bitcoin has higher global adoption than the S&P 500 and Gold.

He stated in a post on X that roughly 5% of the world population owns Bitcoin, comparable to 4% for the S&P 500 and approximately 4.5% for Gold.

For now, Bitcoin’s return to positive territory marks a notable change after months of bearish readings and provides a data-driven point of optimism for those monitoring Bitcoin’s position within its multi-year cycles.

Market participants will likely watch whether the indicator builds further strength in the weeks ahead as price action unfolds.

Outlook

The outlook for Bitcoin remains cautiously optimistic as the Cycle Momentum indicator moves back into positive territory.

While the shift suggests that the prolonged bearish phase may be losing strength, it does not yet provide sufficient confirmation of a sustained trend reversal.

However, a failure to maintain positive momentum could leave Bitcoin vulnerable to further consolidation or another wave of selling pressure.

With the cryptocurrency still trading significantly below its October 2025 record, the coming weeks could prove critical in determining whether the recent recovery represents the beginning of a new bullish cycle or merely a temporary rebound.

Meta’s $17 Billion Settlement Could Clear Legal Path for New AI Product Push – Morgan Stanley

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Meta’s roughly $17 billion settlement with U.S. states over allegations that Facebook and Instagram harmed younger users could remove a significant legal overhang for the company and give management greater room to accelerate a pipeline of artificial intelligence products, analysts say.

The settlement followed a trial that began in August after attorneys general from 29 U.S. states accused Meta of deliberately designing features on Instagram and Facebook that encouraged excessive use and exposed children and teenagers to harmful content.

Under the agreement reached during the second week of the trial, Meta will introduce a series of changes affecting users under 18. The measures include a two-hour daily usage limit, tighter age-verification requirements and restrictions on certain features, including extreme makeup and cosmetic-surgery filters.

Meta is expected to pay the settlement over 10 years and has said it will record a $10 billion legal charge in the third quarter of 2026. The company has otherwise maintained the financial guidance it issued in July.

For investors, however, the settlement could represent more than the removal of a costly legal liability. Morgan Stanley analysts argue that major legal disputes have sometimes been followed by an acceleration in product development at large technology companies.

“We see multiple new products in the pipeline from Meta,” the analysts said in a Saturday note, pointing to MetaClaw, improvements to Meta AI, agentic advertising tools for small and medium-sized businesses, new subscription products, an expanded application programming interface offering, potential “neocloud” services and other initiatives.

The analysts cautioned that they were not suggesting all of the products were immediately ready for commercial launch.

It comes as Meta seeks to turn its enormous AI investment into new sources of revenue beyond its core advertising business.

Meta is reportedly preparing to launch Hatch, a consumer AI agent, as early as September. According to an internal memo seen by Business Insider, the assistant is expected to operate within WhatsApp and Instagram and could autonomously carry out tasks such as making online purchases and booking restaurants.

If launched as described, Hatch would push Meta further into the emerging market for agentic AI, in which software does not simply answer questions but takes actions on a user’s behalf. Such products could create new opportunities for Meta to monetize its massive messaging and social-media user base while competing with AI assistants developed by companies including OpenAI, Google and Anthropic.

Morgan Stanley drew a parallel with Google, saying a series of major product and model launches followed a U.S. Justice Department decision last year not to force the sale of key Google assets.

Those launches included Gemini 3 and a broader expansion of AI-powered search products such as AI Mode and AI Overviews, which the analysts said also contributed to an increase in Google’s valuation.

“There are certainly signals, in our view, that Meta’s product pipeline could start flowing following this legal clearing event… just like Google’s last year,” the analysts said.

The settlement also appears less threatening to Meta’s advertising business than its headline figure might suggest.

Morgan Stanley estimates that revenue generated from teenagers accounts for only about 1% of Meta’s total revenue. The relatively small direct exposure means that restrictions on teenage usage could have a limited immediate impact on the company’s overall advertising sales.

The analysts nevertheless warned that youth-engagement restrictions could become a greater long-term problem for YouTube if similar measures are imposed across competing platforms, given YouTube’s stronger adoption among younger users.

One condition attached to the full settlement is that competing services, including YouTube and TikTok, implement comparable changes for younger users, potentially reducing the competitive impact of Meta’s restrictions if the requirement is broadly enforced.

Needham, meanwhile, retained its “hold” rating on Meta, focusing less on the settlement itself and more on the company’s increasingly broad investment strategy.

The investment bank described Meta’s approach as “strategy diffusion,” citing simultaneous spending on custom AI chips, data centers, enterprise AI software, business agents, model APIs, computing services, advertising technology, consumer AI assistants, smart glasses and other hardware.

“By not concentrating its capital and free cash flow on the highest-return products and services, it raises the risk that management attention, engineering talent and shareholder capital are spread across too many things, and lowers the likelihood that Meta succeeds at any of them,” Needham analysts wrote in an Aug. 27 note.

That concern is growing as Meta’s AI spending reaches unprecedented levels. The company expects capital expenditure of as much as $145 billion in 2026 as it builds data centers, acquires computing capacity and develops AI infrastructure and models.

The $10 billion legal charge will therefore arrive at an expensive point in Meta’s investment cycle. Although the settlement payments are spread over a decade, the accounting charge and ongoing compliance costs add another layer of expenditure while Meta is already committing tens of billions of dollars to infrastructure whose returns may take years to materialize.

The central investment question is consequently shifting from whether Meta can absorb the settlement to whether it can convert its massive AI spending into sufficiently large new businesses.

Meta’s advantage is its scale. Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp give the company distribution to billions of users, while its advertising infrastructure provides an established monetization system. The challenge is ensuring that its expanding AI portfolio produces incremental revenue rather than simply adding to capital expenditure and operating costs.

The settlement could give Meta greater legal clarity to pursue that strategy. But analysts remain divided over whether a broader product pipeline will translate into higher returns.

India GDP Growth Hits 7.8%: Economy Beats Forecasts Despite Global Challenges

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India’s latest economic growth figures have delivered another reminder that the country remains one of the most resilient major economies in a world still dealing with inflation, expensive energy and uneven global demand.

First-quarter gross domestic product expanded 7.8% year on year, comfortably ahead of economists’ expectations of roughly 7.2%.

The headline number matters because India’s growth story has increasingly become a crucial counterweight to weakness elsewhere.

While many developed economies continue to struggle with high borrowing costs and subdued industrial activity, India is maintaining a much faster pace of expansion.

The latest figures suggest that domestic demand, government support and relatively strong economic fundamentals are continuing to provide momentum. One important factor behind that resilience is the government’s approach to essential commodities and energy.

State-owned oil refiners have been subject to price controls that limit how much consumers pay for fuel. This intervention can shield households and businesses from some of the immediate effects of higher global energy prices.

For an economy as large and energy-dependent as India, containing fuel-cost shocks can have significant consequences for inflation and consumer spending. The government’s fertilizer subsidies provide another important layer of protection.

Agriculture remains central to India’s economy and to the livelihoods of millions of households. Fertilizer prices can have a direct impact on farmers’ production costs, food prices and rural incomes.

By subsidizing fertilizers, the government reduces some of that pressure and helps maintain agricultural activity even when international commodity markets become volatile.

These policies highlight an important feature of India’s growth model: the state continues to play a significant role in absorbing economic shocks. Price controls and subsidies can protect consumers in the short term.

But they come with fiscal costs and can distort market incentives if maintained for too long. The challenge for policymakers is therefore to balance immediate economic stability with long-term efficiency.

The 7.8% growth rate reinforces India’s position as one of the most important emerging-market stories. Strong GDP growth can attract foreign capital, support corporate earnings and encourage investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, technology and consumer industries.

It also strengthens the case for India becoming an increasingly influential destination for global companies seeking alternatives to slower-growing markets. Yet the numbers should not be interpreted as evidence that every part of the economy is equally strong.

GDP growth is an aggregate measure, and underlying sectors can perform very differently. India still faces challenges involving employment, household purchasing power, inequality, infrastructure and the sustainability of public spending.

The latest result is significant. Beating expectations by such a wide margin suggests that India entered the quarter with considerable momentum.

Government intervention in fuel and fertilizer markets has helped cushion households and businesses from external shocks, while the broader economy continues to benefit from domestic consumption and investment.

The bigger story is that India is demonstrating an ability to grow rapidly without being completely insulated from global pressures. That combination of strong domestic demand and active policy support could remain one of its greatest economic advantages.

At 7.8%, India’s first-quarter growth is more than a better-than-expected statistic. It is a signal that the country’s economic expansion remains remarkably durable—and that its growing importance in the global economy is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.