I posit and believe that colonialism distorted Africa’s trajectory including the evolution and maturity of Africa’s leadership system. The biggest problem Africa faces is how to select/elect its leaders, and the choices available and used today are largely exogenous to Africa.

Whether you want to believe it or not, Africa will not attain the level of Western democracy of largely free and fair elections in the next 100 years! So, that option no matter how big you print “democracy” across African capitals will remain imperfect and severely defective.

And the Chinese module is not an option as there is no way you can appoint an Oyo indigene to go and run a local government in Kano, as China does today, in its largely one-party system where party leaders are like regional business executives running China Plc!

But go deeper, Africa had a working leadership and management system before the vagaries of colonialism came. I had noted one for the electoral process here. You can look at different African cultures to see samples of those systems.

In ancestral Igbo, the name “Nneka” [mother is supreme] was more than a name. That name encapsulated the fact that a man lives in his father’s land at peace time but during bad times, only the mother’s place can be a place of abode.

Yes, there may not have been prisons, police officers, etc, but in ancestral Africa, the elders council could excommunicate troublesome people out of communities. And when someone is banished, the only option, depending on the nature of the crime, is the mother’s place. So, on that realization, men were forced to name their daughters “Nneka” because when it matters most, only the mother’s root offers real hope. That was a leadership system to keep order.

However, when the Western colonialism came and modulated that ancestral system, everything broke down. You cannot excommunicate bad actors because of property rights. Even on building communities, as recently as 1973, most successful Igbo men donated their wealth to rebuild community schools, markets, clinics, as part of reconstruction after the Biafra war. 

That time, there was no ranking of wealth defined by balance sheets and market caps as the Western World does. Those days, wealth was measured on impacts on people and communities. So, that one has faded and absorbed into the Western norms where dominance is the rule, and not the rise of all.

Then, why waste effort since we cannot go back to ancestral Africa? Sure – but if we cannot do Western Democracy the way they do it, via free and fair elections, it may make sense to flavour it, untangling central power in national capitals to more regional controls.

So, we must solve this equation for a developmental model:

 Western “democracy” + regional control of true federalism = closer to ancestral Africa development model.

Yes, turn a monolithic model into microservices in governance protocol!

Comment on Feed and my response

Comment 1: “When it’s bad, you go to the mother but when it’s good the father takes the praise. The bias is apparent & irrational for a culture that prides itself in its patrilineality.”

My response: you did not process it very well partly because this piece is not about Igbo tradition. Nneka connects to your in-law as your extended family and that means when all kindreds fail, you still have your in-laws as a safe zone. Reciprocally, the son of a daughter is accorded the highest respect as Nwa-ada even above the sons of the soil. Igbo tradition has reverence to women.

During the village weekly palm wine gathering, after the eldest village has taken a kola and wine, the next to be called to be given is the son of the daughters, ahead of everyone. And in communities, Umu Ada (daughters of the community) can rule over men even though they have been married out of the community.

The Nneka is an extension of Igbo’s belief that marriage is not a transaction between a young man and a woman, but a relationship between communities. That is why we name children Nwaoha [a child to a community} because only a community can train a child, not just the parents.

Comment 2:”There is no way you can appoint an Oyo indigene to run a local government in Kano, as China does today.” Hello sir, we did that during the military regimes. The state governors weren’t indigenes.

My Response: For the context of development, that is not relevant as the structure was never for market-driven development. I am not sure any military administrator was in charge of its budget.  Though they were reading speeches on TVs, some were so junior that they were not members of the national governing council which were manned by military chiefs and GOCs. Contrast this with where all governors are members of the Council of State.

Good People, join me to thank Mr. John Hunpatin for donating to Tekedia General Scholarship. Many young people attend Tekedia Institute programs free due to scholarships and fellowships funded by global citizens like Mr. Hunpatin.

For this donation, 10 secondary school teachers in rural parts of Africa will attend Tekedia Mini-MBA free. Among other things, we do hope you could learn how modern technologies can assist in your great mission of educating Africa’s future. We’re adding modules specifically to make it possible to educate teachers on how to use generative AI to improve outcomes in classes. We will teach how to setup and use Copilot, ChatGPT and Gemini.

Ideas Worth Billions IWB Africa, a non-profit run by young people across Africa, does all our scholarship selections. If interested, connect with IWB, as they have a transparent, fair and rigorous process to handle the selections.  They will send the final names latest Feb 9 as the next edition of Tekedia Mini-MBA begins Feb 10, 2025.

Mr Hunpatin, win more markets and thank you for funding the FUTURE. To learn more about Tekedia Mini-MBA, go here.

The distribution of value-added tax (VAT) revenue in Nigeria has once again come under scrutiny. New data from Agora Policy shed light on the significant disparities between states’ contributions to the VAT pool and their subsequent allocations.

The report, based on figures from the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) for 2024, has reignited debates about fiscal fairness, equity, and systemic reform, further fueling the controversy surrounding the proposed tax reform bills.

Introduced in 1993 to replace the Sales Tax, VAT has become a cornerstone of Nigeria’s non-oil revenue collection, administered by the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS). Despite its critical role in boosting revenue, the formula for VAT distribution has been a source of longstanding controversy. Under the current framework, revenue is shared as follows:

• 50% based on equality among all states
• 30% based on population
• 20% based on derivation (the state where the VAT was generated)

This formula, while ostensibly designed to promote national cohesion and reduce regional disparities, has been criticized for its perceived inequity, particularly by states that generate significant VAT revenue but receive only a fraction in return.

The disparities highlighted by the 2024 FAAC data have amplified the controversy surrounding proposed reforms to Nigeria’s tax system. A tax and fiscal policy committee led by Taiwo Oyedele recently recommended a revised VAT-sharing formula:

• 20% based on equality
• 60% based on derivation
• 20% based on population

The proposed formula aims to address inequities by granting higher revenue shares to states based on their contributions. However, the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) rejected this proposal, instead suggesting an alternative formula:

• 50% based on equality
• 30% based on derivation
• 20% based on population

While both formulas diverge in emphasis, they have sparked heated debates, with critics arguing that the NGF’s proposal does little to address the systemic imbalances inherent in the current framework.

The controversy surrounding these proposals is rooted in the glaring disparities in VAT contributions and allocations, which are seen by many as emblematic of deeper fiscal inequities across Nigeria’s geopolitical regions.

Disparities in Contributions and Allocations

The 2024 data reveals a stark imbalance in VAT remittances. Lagos state, Nigeria’s economic powerhouse, contributed N2.75 trillion to the VAT pool—nearly half of the total VAT revenue generated. Despite this, the state received only N460 billion in return, representing just 16.7 percent of its contributions.

Similarly, Rivers state, another major contributor, generated N832 billion but received only N186.6 billion, or 22.4 percent of its input.

In sharp contrast, states with minimal contributions to the VAT pool often receive allocations far exceeding their input:

• Kano State: Contributed N77.7 billion but received N117.1 billion.
• Katsina State: Contributed N22 billion but was allocated N85.6 billion.
• Abia State: Contributed N8.68 billion and received N63.78 billion—a 734.8 percent return.
• Imo State: Contributed N4.38 billion but received N70.7 billion—a 1,613 percent return.

Regional Breakdown of VAT Disparities

Across Nigeria’s geopolitical zones, the disparities are equally pronounced:

• South-West: Led by Lagos, the zone contributed N3.11 trillion (the largest share of VAT revenue) but received only N849.71 billion—27.4 percent of its contributions.
• South-South: Contributed N1.08 trillion but was allocated N543.49 billion—50.3 percent of its contributions.
• North-West: Contributed N211.27 billion but received N574.32 billion—271.8 percent of its contributions.
• North-East: Contributed N174.50 billion and received N411.84 billion—236 percent of its contributions.
• North-Central: Contributed N154.54 billion but received N408.66 billion—a 264.4 percent return.
• South-East: Contributed the least (N101.09 billion) but received N341.46 billion—a 337.8 percent return.

Collectively, southern states, driven by economic hubs like Lagos and Rivers, contributed N4.28 trillion to the VAT pool but received only N1.73 trillion—40.5 percent of their contributions. In contrast, northern states contributed N540.31 billion but received N1.39 trillion, representing a 258.2 percent return.

Tax Reform Debates

The glaring inequities in VAT distribution have become a central point of contention in Nigeria’s ongoing tax reform discussions. Advocates for reform argue that the current system disincentivizes revenue generation by states while disproportionately rewarding those that contribute less.

This controversy has significant implications for Nigeria’s broader fiscal policies. The Oyedele-led committee’s recommendations, which emphasize derivation, have the potential to incentivize states to strengthen their revenue-generation mechanisms. However, political resistance from influential groups, including the NGF, underscores the challenges of achieving consensus on reform.

The debates over VAT distribution have also fueled broader concerns about Nigeria’s federal structure and the need for fiscal federalism. Many believe that the current system perpetuates dependency on federal allocations, undermining states’ capacity to sustain independent economic growth.

Good People, I’ve read the comments on the broad conversation of building nations through credible leaders, understanding that credibility could be domain specific. Yes, Donald Trump is a credible businessman who speaks the language of business, and can tell investors what they want to hear, typically “assured high returns”, if they invest in America. Imagine if Nigeria makes Aliko Dangote the president, he can raise $billions quickly because his business credibility will enable him to bring truckloads of money into the nation as investments. Afterall, in most years, Dangote Group has raised more money than the federal government of Nigeria!

Yet, that Trump is a credible businessman does not mean he could be a credible man to lead your church choir.  In the same spirit, asking Dangote to lead a national movement to ask those who gave Nigeria loans to forgive them may not be prudent.

But in everything, I see building a nation to come down to one core sphere: pragmatism and honesty with a system that rewards results. In America, elections are readily free and fair, and the candidate most voters judge to be the best wins. But in China, they do not follow that process but when you look deeper, despite “no voting”, they are doing the same thing.

Assume Nigeria practices what China does, we will have a one-party system headquartered in Abuja. The leaders of the party will appoint 774 men and women to all the local governments in Nigeria to run those LGAs with clear targets and deliverables. Those appointments are not made based on state of origin. That means, a Kano indigene can be appointed to become the LGA of my beloved Isuikwuato LGA in Abia State. His job will be to improve my local government. If he does well, he would be promoted to a quasi-regional government like becoming a governor of Osun state. If he fails, he is cut-out.

In other words, for Chinese leaders, this is like a corporation where the party leaders are appointing managers to run shows at local, and state levels. If you do well, you are promoted, and doing well is clearly stated as developing the place. Magically, that system makes local governments and states competing against one another because every leader is working to have good scorecards for the next elevation. The current Chinese leader XI Jinping was a regional leader in different places, and his results qualified him to be on the national committee.

Credibility to lead a nation comes via many ways; the Americans and Chinese have their own models, and those are working. If you are from Imo State and did well to transform Sokoto State, it is very likely that markets will see you as a credible transformer, within the Chinese model. In America, if your fellow citizens have voted for you in a free and fair election, they will see you as a credible representative of the people. With credibility, you can form alliances and advance communities and people. 

Finally, the challenge for Africa remains that we continue to struggle to attract people with credibility at the highest levels because the process to get there is convoluted with mass rigging of elections and undemocratic systems. But in ancestral Africa, we used to have ways to elect and select leaders – yes, credible leaders – but we lost those due to colonialism, and embraced a Western system we may not mature into for the next 100 years! 

How did they do it then? Villages were governed by elders, and elders would honour promising members of the community with leadership roles. Those days, to speak in a village square, you must have been qualified by concrete things you have done in the community via service. Have you been cleaning the village source of drinking water? Have you been teaching women how to feed babies better? Have you taken orphans to apprenticeships?  In other words, you cannot get to a position of leadership without evidential tractions in communities!

In short, in ancestral Ovum (the name of my village before the British renamed it Ovim), to speak at the village square, many villagers would have seconded you and that is done out of service and impact.

Those services were self-evident to all, making it possible that when you raise your hand to speak, the elders will allow you to address the community. And upon that credible service, the villagers would readily follow you. Today, it is about what the electoral umpires have announced irrespective of what happened in the polling units or communities; that will not help the “leaders” and the subjects, and neither would those global investors believe.

Comment on Feed

Comment: What ancestral Africa? Is it the corrupt Dibia’s? Or the thieving village elders whose judgment can be scanned under wads of cash-on-hand?

My Response: Actually, if you study Africa before the Europeans came, they had a working system. That system failed when it was modulated by Western system. In the old days, if you were caught stealing, they would banish you from the village. Dibia is a word for “doctor” and I am not sure of your point, but if a Dibia was found to be corrupt, consequences followed. They excommunicated people. In ancestral Igbo, the name Nneka was powerful. A man stays in his father’s place at peace time, but at bad times, only the mother’s place was the only place of abode. There was discipline and the system functioned.  But that system was attached by Western process, breaking the heart of excommunicating people which can now be challenged in court due to property rights

Saving 140 million Nigerians from Poverty – The Simple Plan