The price of Bitcoin (BTC) briefly surged above the $90,000 mark after spending weeks consolidating between the $80,000 and $90,000 range.
While the breakout initially sparked optimism, fresh on-chain data and renewed geopolitical tensions suggest investors may need to remain cautious.
According to Burak Kesmeci, an analyst at CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) realized price—currently around $99,600 as of late December 2025 remains a critical resistance level. This metric represents the average cost basis of recent buyers, many of whom are still underwater at current prices.
Kesmeci noted that until Bitcoin achieves a decisive close above this level, there is little reason for excitement. In his words, there can be no true bull market until short-term investors “with a broken heart” return to profitability.
On-chain data shows a convergence of resistance between $99,000 and $102,000, reinforcing the importance of this zone for sustained upside momentum.
As of January 4, 2026, Bitcoin was trading around $90,000, following approximately $161 million in short liquidations. However, the rally proved fragile. With traditional markets closed, BTC attempted to hold early-year gains ahead of futures reopening on Sunday.
Momentum above $90,000 was cut short after reports of explosions in Venezuela triggered a sharp sell-off. Reports revealed that the US had launched airstrikes in the Venezuelan capital. Within an hour, Bitcoin dropped from near $91,000 to below $90,000, underscoring how quickly geopolitical headlines can unsettle crypto markets.
The episode reflects a familiar pattern. During periods of heightened geopolitical tension, Bitcoin has often behaved like a risk-sensitive asset rather than a standalone hedge.
The price briefly slid toward the $87,500 region, erasing gains from the previous day and halting the recovery attempt. A modest rebound followed, with BTC stabilizing near $90,000 at the time of reporting.
Throughout 2025, Bitcoin repeatedly reacted to global macro and geopolitical developments, ranging from U.S. government shutdown concerns to U.S.–China trade tensions and conflicts in the Middle East. Just days into 2026, the trend appears to be continuing, with Bitcoin once again responding sharply to global risk events.
Market commentators remain divided but cautiously optimistic. The analytics account @Wealthmanager attributed the dip to short-term selling pressure linked to U.S. actions involving Venezuela, while maintaining a bullish near-term outlook.
The account suggested that if tensions do not escalate, the move could prove temporary, with a recovery toward the $96,000–$100,000 range in the coming days or weeks.
Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe echoed this view, describing the pullback as a “classic” reaction to Venezuela-related headlines. He emphasized that the broader January trend remains upward, as long as Bitcoin holds above its 21-day simple moving average, currently around $87,850.
Outlook
In the short term, Bitcoin’s price action is likely to remain headline-driven, with geopolitical developments and broader risk sentiment playing an outsized role. Elevated volatility could persist if global tensions intensify.
From a structural perspective, however, the $99,000–$102,000 zone remains the key hurdle. A sustained break above the short-term holder realized price would likely restore confidence among recent buyers and strengthen the case for a renewed bull phase.
Until then, Bitcoin may continue to oscillate between optimism and caution, reacting swiftly to both on-chain signals and global events.
