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Nigeria’s Fiscal Deficit Hits Record N13.51tn in 2024, Breaching Legal Threshold as Borrowing Surges

By
Samuel Nwite
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0

Nigeria’s fiscal deficit soared to N13.51 trillion in 2024, overshooting government projections and breaching the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) limit of 3 percent of GDP, according to the latest Budget Implementation Report by the Budget Office of the Federation.

The report, which tracks government spending and revenue performance, shows that the deficit-to-GDP ratio climbed to 3.62 percent, exceeding the legally prescribed threshold under the FRA 2007.

In the 2024 fiscal framework, the quarterly fiscal deficit was initially projected at N2.29 trillion, excluding Government-Owned Enterprises (GOEs) and multilateral or bilateral project-tied loans amounting to N262.98 billion, the Budget Office said.

However, the actual fiscal outturns were far higher. The report revealed that inflows and outflows of funds in the fourth quarter resulted in a deficit of N7.17 trillion — a staggering N4.88 trillion (212.68%) higher than the prorated budget projection for the period.

“Overall, a total of N13.51 trillion deficit was recorded in 2024, representing a budget-to-GDP ratio of 3.62 percent, which is above the target rate of 3.0 percent as stipulated in the FRA 2007,” the Budget Office stated.

According to the report, the deficit was financed through multiple channels: N1.98 trillion from multilateral and bilateral project-tied loans, N6.06 trillion from domestic borrowing, N3.37 trillion from foreign borrowing, and N3.19 trillion from budget support facilities.

Mounting Fiscal Pressures

The sharp rise in the deficit underscores Nigeria’s persistent fiscal challenges, characterized by weak revenue mobilization, low oil output, and rising expenditure commitments.

By the end of the third quarter of 2024, the fiscal deficit had already reached N7.05 trillion, reflecting the widening gap between revenue and spending as the government struggled to fund large-scale infrastructure projects, subsidy costs, and social programs amid revenue shortfalls.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the trend is set to worsen. In its latest country report, the IMF projected that Nigeria’s fiscal deficit would widen further to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2025, higher than the government’s budget target.

“In the baseline, staff projects a consolidated fiscal deficit of 4.7 percent of GDP in 2025. This is higher than the budget, owing to lower oil prices and production, and already reflects lower-than-budgeted capital expenditure,” the IMF stated.

The Fund’s projection signals continued fiscal strain despite recent revenue measures, including subsidy removal and exchange rate unification.

Borrowing Surge and Rising Debt Stock

To plug the widening fiscal gap, the government has leaned heavily on borrowing, both domestically and externally. According to the DMO, Nigeria’s total public debt climbed to N152.40 trillion as of June 30, 2025, up from N149.39 trillion at the end of March — a quarterly increase of N3.01 trillion (2.01%).

In dollar terms, the total debt rose from $97.24 billion to $99.66 billion, representing a 2.49 percent increase within the same period.

The debt profile includes borrowings from bilateral partners such as China, France, Germany, and Japan, and from multilateral institutions like the World Bank, African Development Bank (AfDB), and Islamic Development Bank (IsDB).

Domestically, the government continues to raise funds through the issuance of FGN Bonds, Treasury Bills, Sukuk Bonds, Green Bonds, and Promissory Notes.

Economic Implications

The breach of the FRA’s fiscal deficit threshold highlights growing concerns about Nigeria’s fiscal discipline and debt sustainability. The Fiscal Responsibility Act (2007) stipulates that the government must keep its deficit within 3 percent of GDP, except under exceptional circumstances such as national emergencies or significant economic downturns.

Analysts say the persistent deficit and rising debt service costs leave limited room for critical capital expenditure, as a large share of government revenue is now absorbed by interest payments.

Economists have repeatedly warned that Nigeria’s debt service-to-revenue ratio — one of the highest globally — poses a significant risk to fiscal stability. Data from the 2024 budget performance report shows that debt servicing consumed nearly 90 percent of total revenue in the first half of the year.

With the IMF projecting weaker oil prices and declining production — key drivers of government revenue — the likelihood of fiscal consolidation in 2025 appears slim.

This means that as the 2025 fiscal year unfolds, Nigeria faces mounting pressure to balance ambitious spending with credible revenue reforms. The government’s increasing dependence on domestic borrowing also threatens to crowd out private sector access to credit, potentially slowing economic recovery.

The IMF has advised the government to broaden its tax base, enhance non-oil revenue, and rationalize expenditures to prevent fiscal vulnerabilities from escalating. Earlier this year, the tax reform bill was signed into law, presenting hope of higher revenue generation starting from January 2026.

Fidelity Expands Crypto Offerings on Solana for Brokerage Customers

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

Fidelity Investments has made Solana (SOL) available for direct purchase, sale, and trading through standard brokerage accounts for eligible U.S. customers.

This update was announced and rolled out on October 23, 2025, marking a significant step in mainstreaming access to Solana alongside established cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Litecoin (LTC).

SOL trading and custody are now supported across multiple Fidelity platforms, including: Retail brokerage accounts. Fidelity Crypto for IRAs. Wealth management services. Institutional trading platforms via Fidelity Digital Assets.

This allows customers to buy SOL directly without needing a separate specialized crypto account. Trades are commission-free, though a ~1% spread applies. Access is limited to eligible U.S. states not nationwide yet, due to regulatory variations.

Requires an existing Fidelity brokerage account. Fidelity, managing $5.8 trillion in assets under management (AUM), has been expanding its crypto services since 2014, starting with Bitcoin mining and evolving to include spot ETFs and tokenized assets.

The addition coincides with Hong Kong’s approval of the first spot Solana ETF by ChinaAMC, launching October 27, 2025, which contributed to SOL’s price surge of ~6% to around $192 on the announcement day. Fidelity was an early filer for a U.S. spot Solana ETF in March 2025, reflecting its bullish stance on Solana’s ecosystem, which boasts 2.4 million daily active users and strong DeFi, NFT, and meme token activity.

This move democratizes Solana access for retail investors, potentially driving higher liquidity and adoption. Analysts note it could boost demand from Fidelity’s vast client base, including institutional players like pension funds, while signaling broader institutional confidence in Solana amid ongoing U.S. ETF approval delays.

Implications of Fidelity Offering Solana for Brokerage Customers

By integrating SOL into standard brokerage accounts, Fidelity lowers the barrier for its millions of retail clients to invest in Solana without needing specialized crypto accounts. This mainstreams SOL alongside traditional assets like stocks and bonds.

Fidelity’s $5.8 trillion AUM and services for wealth management and institutional clients via Fidelity Digital Assets could attract pension funds, family offices, and other large players, boosting SOL’s credibility and demand.

Expanded access through a major platform like Fidelity is likely to increase SOL trading volume, improving market liquidity and potentially reducing volatility over time. The announcement contributed to a ~6% SOL price surge to ~$192 on October 23, 2025, driven by both Fidelity’s move and Hong Kong’s spot Solana ETF approval.

Continued inflows from Fidelity’s client base could sustain upward price momentum, though short-term volatility may persist due to market dynamics. Fidelity’s early filing for a U.S. spot Solana ETF and this rollout signal strong belief in Solana’s ecosystem, which leads in DeFi, NFTs, and meme tokens with 2.4 million daily active users.

This could encourage other financial institutions to follow suit, further legitimizing SOL. It positions Solana as a top-tier cryptocurrency alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum, potentially attracting more developers and projects to its blockchain.

Traditional brokerages like Fidelity offering crypto trading directly challenges dedicated exchanges like Coinbase, Binance. Investors may prefer Fidelity’s integrated platform for its familiarity, security, and commission-free trades despite the ~1% spread, potentially shifting market share.

While Fidelity’s move doesn’t guarantee U.S. spot Solana ETF approval, it strengthens the case by demonstrating demand and infrastructure readiness. Delays in U.S. ETF approvals contrast with Hong Kong’s progress, which could pressure U.S. regulators.

Solana’s inclusion could pave the way for other altcoins to be offered by traditional financial institutions, accelerating crypto’s integration into mainstream finance. It may spur competition among brokerages (e.g., Schwab, Vanguard) to expand their crypto offerings, benefiting investors with more choices.

Easy access to SOL via Fidelity accounts allows portfolio diversification, especially for those bullish on Solana’s high-throughput blockchain and growing ecosystem. Regulatory uncertainty, market volatility, and the ~1% spread on trades should be considered.

US Mortgage Rates Reach 1-Year Lows

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

US mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest levels in over a year, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage falling to 6.19% for the week ending October 23, 2025.

This marks the third consecutive weekly decline, down from 6.27% the prior week and a significant pullback from the over 7% highs seen at the start of 2025. For context, rates averaged 6.54% a year ago, and this is the lowest point since early October 2024.

These figures come from Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey and align with reports from Zillow and other lenders. Markets are pricing in a near-certain 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s October 29-30 meeting, following September’s cut. This has pushed down the 10-year Treasury yield a key benchmark for mortgages to a 13-month low.

Today’s CPI data showed a softer-than-expected reading—headline CPI at +0.3% month-over-month (vs. +0.4% expected) and core CPI at +0.2% (vs. +0.3%)—with year-over-year figures at 3.0% for both, below forecasts. This reduces pressure on rates to rise.

Weaker job market signals and slower business momentum despite strong PMIs are encouraging the Fed toward easing, indirectly benefiting mortgage borrowers. Applications jumped 10.8% last week, as more homeowners eye swapping high-rate loans many locked in above 7% for these levels.

Existing home sales rose 1.5% in September—the fastest pace since February—amid easing rates and softening prices homes sold 1.4% below asking in many metros. For a $400,000 loan, the monthly payment drops about $50 at 6.19% vs. 6.27%, but experts note rates would need to dip below 6% for widespread refinancing appeal since ~80% of mortgages are under 6%.

However, inventory remains tight, and prices aren’t falling dramatically yet. Another 25-basis-point Fed cut in December could nudge 30-year rates toward 6.3-6.4% by year-end.

Most analysts like the Mortgage Bankers Association, Fannie Mae see rates stabilizing around 6.4-6.5% through 2026, staying in the 6-7% range amid persistent inflation. Dramatic drops below 6% are unlikely without a major economic shift.

The US housing market is experiencing a period of moderation in home prices, with national year-over-year (YoY) growth slowing to its lowest levels since mid-2023.

While prices remain elevated—reflecting a cumulative 50% increase since 2019—recent data shows flat or slightly declining trends in many regions due to rising inventory, cooling demand from high mortgage rates now dipping below 6.2%, and softening economic pressures like tariffs and inflation.

A nationwide housing shortage of nearly 4 million units continues to provide underlying support, preventing a crash, but experts forecast modest growth of 1-3% through year-end.

Active listings hit a 4-year high in September (up 14% YoY), with 2+ months of supply in many metros—shifting leverage toward buyers and capping price upside. Homes are pending in ~17 days nationally down from 20+ earlier this year, but sales volume remains 20-30% below pre-pandemic norms due to affordability strains.

Trends vary sharply by geography, with the Northeast bucking the slowdown while the Sun Belt sees corrections. Strong fundamentals like job growth and low inventory drive gains; metros here lead the top 100 for appreciation.
South (e.g., Florida metros like Tampa, Austin TX)

7 of top 10 declining metros are in FL; overbuilding and insurance costs (up 45% in 5 years) fuel drops. West (e.g., California, Arizona) -1.4% (median $620,700). Sales up 1.4% MoM but prices softening; high escrow/tax burdens add 45% to costs vs. 5 years ago.

Midwest (e.g., Chicago); +2% to +4%
Mixed; steady but slower than Northeast peers. Negative growth is concentrated in overvalued Sun Belt areas, where investors now ~33% of buyers are pulling back amid higher carrying costs.

Mortgage rates at 1-year lows ~6.19% for 30-year fixed are encouraging more listings up 10-15% YoY but not yet sparking a buying frenzy—93% of Americans still cite costs as “too high.” Inflation at 3% YoY limits aggressive Fed cuts; tariffs could add upward pressure on construction costs, slowing new builds down 3% expected in 2025.

Elevated activity 1/3 of purchases sustains demand but favors cash-heavy deals, sidelining first-time buyers. Monthly payments for a median home exceed $2,500 up 50% since 2019; escrow/tax hikes exacerbate this, leading to longer market times up 10-20 days in softening areas.

Prices likely flat to +1.5% YoY, with inventory growth potentially +20% enabling more negotiation—mid-October (Oct 12-18) flagged as optimal buying window for softer prices and higher listings.

Gradual rebound to +3-6% growth as rates stabilize at 6-6.5%; NAR predicts 11% sales increase if inventory hits 4 months’ supply. No crash expected—experts like Zillow and Fannie Mae see sustained elevation due to shortages.

Focus on local comps; lock rates soon if buying. Sellers in cooling markets may need incentives. Overall, the market is thawing but remains buyer-cautious—lower rates could tip it toward balance by spring 2026.

Trump-Xi To Hold Meetings on 30th October in South Korea

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

The White House has officially confirmed that U.S. President Donald Trump will hold a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on October 30, 2025—next Thursday—in Busan, South Korea.

This marks their first in-person encounter since Trump’s return to office earlier this year. The meeting is scheduled on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit, which runs from October 31 to November 1 in Gyeongju, South Korea.

Trump is embarking on a multi-country Asia tour starting October 24, including stops in Malaysia and Japan, before arriving in South Korea for the summit.

While Trump had teased the possibility of a Xi meeting multiple times in recent weeks, the White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt provided the exact details during a briefing on October 23. The leaders have spoken by phone at least three times in 2025, most recently in September, discussing issues like TikTok’s U.S. operations.

This summit comes amid a fragile U.S.-China trade truce established in May 2025, which averted triple-digit tariffs. However, tensions have escalated recently: China expanded export controls on rare earth minerals and related technologies in early October, critical for electronics and defense.

In response, Trump threatened an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports on top of the existing 30%, potentially effective as early as November 1. Trump has highlighted fentanyl trafficking as a top priority, stating he plans to press Xi on it directly, alongside demands for China to curb oil purchases from Russia.

The last in-person Trump-Xi meeting was in 2019 at the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan. Based on public statements and recent developments, the agenda is likely to focus on: Trade and Tariffs: Resolving the standoff over rare earths, soybeans, and broader agricultural purchases to prevent a full trade war escalation.

Fentanyl and Drugs: Trump has repeatedly called this a “big penalty” issue, linking it to existing tariffs. Potential discussions on Taiwan, North Korea’s missile activities, Russia’s war in Ukraine Trump claims Xi wants it ended, and U.S. export curbs on software to China.

Trump has expressed optimism about a “fantastic deal,” emphasizing direct talks as the best path forward. Outlets like Reuters and CNBC describe the meeting as a critical opportunity to “dial down tensions” in the world’s top two economies, but note the elusive nature of a comprehensive trade deal.

Discussions are buzzing with a mix of optimism and caution on X. Users highlight the meeting’s overlap with a busy earnings week (e.g., Meta, Amazon, Microsoft) and the Fed’s rate decision, calling it a “trading marathon.” Some speculate on outcomes like tariff pauses, while others worry about volatility if talks falter.

A positive outcome could stabilize global markets; failure might trigger immediate tariff hikes, impacting U.S. consumers who bear much of the cost via higher prices and sectors like tech and autos.

Overview of Rare Earth Tensions

Rare earth elements (REEs)—a group of 17 metals essential for technologies like electric vehicles (EVs), semiconductors, wind turbines, defense systems, and consumer electronics—have become a flashpoint in U.S.-China trade relations.

China dominates the global supply chain, mining about 70% of REEs and processing over 90%. In early October 2025, Beijing escalated controls on REE exports, prompting swift U.S. retaliation and global market jitters.

These moves threaten to unravel a fragile May 2025 trade truce that had paused triple-digit tariffs. The tensions are set against the backdrop of an upcoming Trump-Xi meeting on October 30 in Busan, South Korea, where de-escalation could be on the table.

Beijing restricts exports of seven REEs samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, yttrium and related magnets in response to U.S. tariffs of 34% on Chinese goods. U.S. auto firms like Ford halt production due to shortages.

U.S. President Donald Trump announces 100% additional tariffs on all Chinese imports on top of existing 30%, effective November 1, unless controls are rolled back. Questions Trump-Xi summit viability.

Ministry of Commerce calls U.S. tariffs “hypocritical” and controls “legitimate” for national security; no immediate counter-levies, signaling openness to talks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer label controls a “global power grab” and threat to supply chains. Bessent floats extending tariff pause if China delays REE rules. China accuses U.S. of “stoking panic.”

U.S. announces REE strategic reserve and billions in investments with Australia. EU plans Brussels talks with China; French President Macron pushes for EU “Anti-Coercion Instrument” against Beijing. X discussions highlight risks to AI/tech sectors.

Exporters need MOFCOM approval; foreign firms using Chinese REEs/tech must apply for licenses to ship products globally, even if manufactured abroad. Ties to foreign militaries (e.g., U.S. defense) trigger automatic denial.

From December 1, 2025, applies to “internationally made” goods, mimicking U.S. Foreign Direct Product Rule but without national security carve-outs. Fines or imprisonment under Chinese law; non-compliance risks cutoff from Chinese suppliers.

Beijing cites “national security” and preventing “misuse” in military/AI sectors, but analysts see it as leverage against U.S. chip export bans. These controls extend to lithium-ion batteries effective November 8 and could veto global manufacturing of REE-embedded products like EV motors and fighter-jet sensors.U.S.

Trump’s 100% tariff threat could add $500B+ in annual costs to U.S. importers, hitting consumers via higher prices for electronics and autos. U.S. also eyes new software export curbs. DOD’s July 2025 deal with MP Materials for U.S. mine-to-magnet chain 1,000 tons NdFeB magnets by end-2025, <1% of China’s output.

S&P 500 dropped 2%+ on October 10; Big Tech (NVIDIA, AMD) vulnerable to AI chip disruptions. U.S. imported $22.8M in Chinese REEs in 2023; shortages could curb EV/defense production. EU mulls DUV lithography bans on China; Japan/South Korea stockpiling. IMF upgraded global growth forecast pre-escalation but warns of risks.

Analysts like those at CSIS and Eurasia Group call this “economic coercion” mirroring U.S. tactics, but China’s processing monopoly gives it an edge—experts doubt full reversal post-Trump-Xi talks. A “one-shot bazooka” strategy may spur permanent diversification, per Resources for the Future.

This standoff underscores supply chain vulnerabilities; long-term, expect accelerated “friend-shoring” to allies like Australia and Canada. Updates from Busan could pivot the trajectory. This meeting could set the tone for U.S.-China relations through 2026, especially with Trump eyeing an early 2026 visit to China.

JPMorgan Expands Business Services Banking Team with Key Hires from Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs

By
Samuel Nwite
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0

JPMorgan Chase & Co has made a strategic push to dominate the U.S. business services sector, hiring three top investment bankers from Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs to help drive dealmaking and expand its investment banking revenue base.

The move is part of a broader plan by John Richert, the head of mid-cap investment banking at JPMorgan, who told Reuters that he aims to increase the division’s annual fee revenue from around $100 million to $500 million within three to five years — a fivefold jump that mirrors the bank’s ambitious growth trajectory in mid-market dealmaking.

“I’d like to increase headcount in senior level by five times in the next two to three years. I will call it the power of fives,” Richert said, emphasizing that the expansion in both human resources and business volume will occur simultaneously.

The bank’s new hires — Erik Carneal, David Sweet, and Ye Xia — bring decades of experience and deep relationships with private equity clients and corporate boards.

Carneal, who joins as vice chair, spent 14 years at Deutsche Bank, where he advised clients across professional, education, and commercial services, cultivating long-term relationships with executives and financial sponsors. With over 25 years in investment banking, he is expected to play a key role in mentoring younger bankers and shaping the bank’s long-term sector strategy.

David Sweet, also from Deutsche Bank, joins as managing director focusing on commercial and residential services. Sweet previously led Deutsche Bank’s coverage in that space, working with clients in HVAC, facilities management, and other recurring-revenue business lines.

Meanwhile, Ye Xia, formerly at Goldman Sachs, will serve as executive director to expand JPMorgan’s coverage of industrial and commercial services, digital infrastructure, and professional services. Xia’s previous experience spans roles at Guggenheim Partners and Rothschild & Co, where she advised clients on mergers, acquisitions, and capital raising.

All three will be based in New York, reporting directly to Richert, and will work closely with Dana Weinstein, JPMorgan’s current head of business services investment banking, who will retire next year. Upon her departure, Richert will take over as global head of business services coverage, further consolidating the unit’s leadership structure.

These appointments follow the addition of Jonathan Slaughter earlier this year as vice chair of Business Services in London — a move that signals JPMorgan’s global ambition in the sector.

A Sector Ripe for Consolidation

The business services industry — which employs about 22.5 million Americans, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data — includes a broad range of non-core operational functions that companies are increasingly outsourcing, such as janitorial, landscaping, restoration, HVAC, and catering services.

Once dominated by small, family-run businesses, the sector has evolved into a magnet for private equity investment, as firms seek to roll up regional players into larger, scalable platforms with predictable, recurring cash flows.

Richert said private equity interest in the space has surged, supported by ample dry powder. “We have a number of private equity meetings per week in which investors are asking to show them everything we have in HVAC, everything we have in restoration, in landscaping,” he said.

According to Reuters data, private equity deal volume reached an all-time quarterly high of $310 billion in the third quarter, underscoring the liquidity available for new acquisitions and consolidations.

Shielded from AI and Trade Shocks

Richert noted that the business services segment enjoys relative protection from macroeconomic headwinds such as automation and trade disruptions.

“Even if you are a clothing manufacturer impacted by tariffs, somebody still has to clean that facility at night,” he said. “This is a sector that’s largely insulated from the threats of AI-driven job substitution or geopolitical trade risks.”

Richert’s aggressive expansion strategy builds on the success of JPMorgan’s mid-cap investment banking division, which he transformed from a 30-person team to a 250-banker operation with annual revenues surpassing $1 billion, up from $150 million when he took over seven years ago.

The bank now serves over 11,000 mid-cap companies through its commercial banking arm — relationships that it intends to leverage for more M&A, advisory, and capital-raising activity in business services.

The expansion comes as competition intensifies among Wall Street firms seeking a larger share of the business services and facilities management market. Rivals like Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Jefferies have also been recruiting senior bankers to capture deal flow from the ongoing wave of private equity consolidation.

But Richert said JPMorgan’s balance sheet strength, global network, and longstanding relationships with corporate clients give it a clear advantage.

The bank’s recruitment drive and deal focus are believed to align with a broader trend of financial institutions pivoting toward sectors offering defensive characteristics amid rising interest rates and uncertain market conditions.

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