The pump price of petrol at various Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) outlets surged to between N998 and N1,030 per liter on Wednesday in Lagos and Abuja, respectively.

This significant price hike follows the NNPC’s decision to terminate its exclusive purchase agreement with Dangote Refinery, signaling a shift in Nigeria’s fuel supply chain and its deregulation efforts.

Earlier in the week, the NNPC reportedly decided to cease being the sole buyer of petrol from Dangote Refinery, a move that effectively opens up the market for independent marketers to negotiate and purchase fuel directly from the refinery. The hope is that, in the long run, increased competition among marketers sourcing from the Dangote Refinery and other suppliers will stabilize the market and lead to better prices for consumers.

This shift aligns with global best practices of a fully deregulated market, where refineries sell their products on a willing buyer, willing seller basis.

Before the shift, the NNPC was acting as the exclusive offtaker for the Dangote Refinery’s petrol, a move intended to ensure stability in fuel supply following the government’s removal of petrol subsidies earlier in 2023. However, this arrangement became unsustainable for NNPC Ltd, as it found itself shouldering substantial costs, selling petrol below its purchase price.

Between September 15 and 30, NNPC lifted around 103 million liters of petrol from the Dangote Refinery, which represents a 26% performance rate of its planned daily offtake of 25 million liters per day. The NNPC had aimed to lift 400 million liters within this period, but the actual offtake fell significantly short, raising concerns about the refinery’s ability to meet national demand.

The reasons for this shortfall remain unclear, but experts speculate that logistical issues, production bottlenecks, and other challenges may have limited Dangote Refinery’s capacity to supply petrol at the expected volumes.

The impact of this shift has been immediately felt at the pumps, where petrol prices have surged significantly. In Abuja, outlets in the Central area, Wuse, and Lugbe were seen adjusting their prices to N1,030 per liter by Wednesday morning, sparking frustration among motorists. In Lagos, the price ranged between N998 and N1,030 per liter, according to several outlets.

This price spike is directly related to NNPC’s withdrawal from its subsidized sales and its decision to no longer absorb the cost difference between its purchase price from Dangote Refinery and the retail price offered to marketers. As a result, the full burden of the market price has now been transferred to consumers, driving fuel prices above the N1,000-per-litre mark for the first time in the nation’s history.

While consumers are bearing the immediate brunt of the new pricing structure, independent petroleum marketers are still in negotiations with Dangote Refinery on the terms of direct offtake. Ukadike Chinedu, the National Public Relations Officer of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), confirmed that they have not yet started purchasing directly from Dangote, but discussions are close to finalization.

“We have not started off-taking from Dangote. But now that the NNPC has said they are no longer the sole off-taker, we will continue our discussion with Dangote.

“Our discussion with Dangote is also reaching the concluding stage by the end of this week; independent marketers will come out with the price Dangote is giving to us. We are still loading from NNPC. We are waiting for Dangote to come out with their price and that will also allow us, the independent marketers, to effect our price,” Ukadike said.

A Major Blow to Inflation Control Efforts

The timing of this price hike could not be worse for the Nigerian economy, which has been grappling with inflationary pressures since the removal of fuel subsidies in May 2023. The government’s subsidy removal policy, although aimed at fiscal sustainability, led to a dramatic rise in the cost of living, with inflation soaring to record levels by mid-year. However, in August, there were signs of inflation easing, as the inflation rate slightly declined to 32.15% from the 33.40% recorded in July 2024, offering a glimmer of hope for economic recovery.

Unfortunately, economists believe that the sudden rise in petrol prices threatens to reverse these early gains in the fight against inflation. Fuel prices have a direct and immediate impact on the costs of transportation, manufacturing, and goods distribution, all of which feed into the overall inflation rate. With petrol now selling at over N1,000 per liter, the cost of transporting goods across the country is expected to skyrocket, leading to further increases in the prices of essential commodities, including food.

Economists have also warned that the latest petrol price hike could trigger a new wave of inflation that may push the rate well beyond the 35% mark by the end of the year. This will add further pressure to a population already struggling with high costs of goods and services, stagnating wages, and rising unemployment.