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Home Blog Page 29

Google Searches for “Debasement” Reach All-Time Highs

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Google searches for “debasement” and especially “dollar debasement” have exploded to unprecedented levels in late 2025, signaling widespread public anxiety over currency erosion amid aggressive monetary policies.

This isn’t just a blip; it’s tied to the “debasement trade,” where investors flock to hard assets like Bitcoin and gold as hedges against fiat weakness. According to Google Trends, interest in “debasement” has hit its all-time high this quarter, surpassing previous peaks from 2012 during the Eurozone debt crisis.

Dollar debasement searches in the US reached record highs in recent weeks, peaking around early December 2025. The term’s visibility in global searches jumped dramatically starting October 9, 2025, coinciding with gold breaking $4,000/oz and Bitcoin nearing $120,000.

For context, the interest score Google’s normalized metric, where 100 is the peak popularity for “debasement” is now at 100 for the past 90 days, up from negligible levels pre-October.

This aligns with broader liquidity trends: US M2 money supply just hit an ATH of $22.3 trillion, fueled by the Fed’s pivot from quantitative tightening (QT) to easing, China’s stimulus, and ongoing BoJ printing.

Global M2 is even larger at ~$95 trillion. People are finally connecting the dots—this is why crypto exists. Currency debasement—historically, rulers like Henry VIII clipping coins with cheaper metals, or modern equivalents like money printing—erodes purchasing power.

Today, it’s amplified by: Post-COVID debt hangover: US debt at $37 trillion, with Trump’s fiscal policies threatening more issuance. Fed’s dovish turn: Rate cuts and balance-sheet expansion since Jackson Hole have weakened the USD to multi-year lows, boosting inflation fears.

Asset rallies as signals: Gold up 18% since August; Bitcoin searches also hit ATHs on Oct 23-24 amid these concerns. Markets are betting on “fiat debasement” over recession. Wall Street’s calling it the debasement trade: Buy scarce assets sell fiat or bonds.

As Lyn Alden noted in her December newsletter, this isn’t new—it’s the “monetary physics of a fiat system” pushing nominal prices up, even if real growth stalls. Bears shorting based on lagging data are getting squeezed by leading liquidity indicators.

Her latest deep dive, the December 3, 2025, newsletter titled “The So-Called ‘Debasement Trade'”, It unpacks why debasement fears are surging— dollar down 10% in H1 2025—the worst six-month drop in 50 years, gold blasting past $4,000/oz, and Bitcoin flirting with $120,000 in October.

This isn’t a shiny new “trade”— it’s the inexorable “monetary physics” of fiat systems playing out over five decades. Alden frames debasement as the slow erosion of fiat purchasing power through endless money printing, decoupled from gold since the 1970s.

It’s why everyday prices like Campbell’s tomato soup have steadily climbed post-1971 while asset prices balloon. The “trade” itself—short fiat/bonds, long hard assets like gold, Bitcoin, stocks, or real estate—has been winning since 2020, with bonds suffering their worst five-year run ever down nominally and way more after inflation.

The real bite comes when money supply growth outpaces bond yields. US broad money has grown 7% annually lately, but with 10-year yields at ~4-5%, net debasement is ~2-3%—mild compared to gold’s mining costs (1-2%).

Unlike the 2010s’ -5% debasement tailwind, expect “moderately negative” gaps ahead—money growing faster than yields, but without zero-rate magic. “The 40-year cycle of ever-lower interest rates is over… asset prices no longer have that tailwind of ever-lower rates behind them.”

Debasement isn’t a trade—it’s the default in fiat land, pushing nominal highs even as real growth sputters. With M2 at ATHs and Fed easing, expect more asset squeezes, but tempered by peak valuations.

For hedges, Bitcoin/gold remain her conviction bets she’s held BTC since $6,900 in 2020. The ‘monetary physics of a fiat system’ pushing nominal prices up. Debasement concerns are at an all-time high with a Trends screenshot showing the spike.

Bitcoin is the purest short-squeeze on fiat debasement. December = peak liquidity month historically. Even bearish voices are noting the shift: The ‘Recession’ trade is dead. The ‘Debasement’ trade is the only game in town.

This search frenzy reflects a tipping point—public awareness of endless money printing “No one is ever going to stop printing money,” as one post quips is driving adoption of alternatives.

Bitcoin fixes this by capping supply at 21 million, immune to debasement. If liquidity keeps flowing— ETFs front-running January inflows, per analysts, expect more ATHs in hard assets. If you’re stacking sats or eyeing gold, this is the vibe.

BHP Secures $2bn Investment From BlackRock’s GIP in Power-Network Deal as Miners Race to Unlock Capital

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BHP Group said on Tuesday that BlackRock-owned Global Infrastructure Partners will invest $2 billion into Western Australia Iron Ore’s inland power network, marking one of the most significant recent moves by a major miner to recycle capital out of low-risk infrastructure and push it back into growth.

The agreement carves out WAIO’s inland power assets into a new entity in which BHP will hold a 51 percent stake and GIP the remaining 49 percent. Under the structure, BHP will pay the new entity a tariff tied to its share of WAIO’s inland power use over a 25-year period. The Australian miner added that operational control will remain fully with BHP, ensuring continuity in how the network supports its massive Pilbara iron ore operations.

The deal landed well with analysts. “It’s a great deal that will help BHP with its capital recycling,” said CLSA’s Baden Moore in Sydney, adding that he hopes to see “more of this from BHP as they pursue growth.”

The company’s shares pared early losses after the announcement and were recently trading flat.

Chief Financial Officer Vandita Pant said the structure reflects “BHP’s disciplined approach to capital portfolio management,” adding that it strengthens balance-sheet flexibility, supports long-term value creation, and enhances shareholder value. The push comes as the mining sector grapples with higher decarbonization costs, the need for new supply in iron ore and critical minerals, and a tougher funding environment for large greenfield mining projects.

The investment arrives at a moment when the world’s biggest miners are reassessing how much capital they want tied up in long-duration infrastructure such as power networks, rail, port capacity, and transmission lines. These assets are essential to operations but can tie up billions that could otherwise be deployed into exploration, expansions, or acquisitions. Investors on the other side are hungry for precisely these kinds of low-risk assets that offer stable, contracted returns.

That shift in thinking has been evident across the sector. Rio Tinto CEO Simon Trott said last week that the company had identified multiple infrastructure assets it does not need to own outright and would explore partnerships and divestments. The world’s largest iron ore producer, like BHP, is preparing for a more capital-intensive decade as ore grades decline, energy requirements climb, and governments push miners harder on emissions.

The GIP investment provides immediate liquidity for BHP, especially at a time when iron ore remains profitable but volatile, and when long-term decarburization plans require billions in spending. WAIO is among the world’s largest integrated mining operations, and its inland power network is critical to both energy reliability and the transition toward cleaner electricity sources. Structuring the asset as a tariff-based infrastructure play allows BHP to keep control while freeing capital to support expansions or cushion balance-sheet pressures from price swings in commodities.

This approach is believed to also give large miners a clearer path to partner with infrastructure specialists who can manage and optimize long-term capital needs while miners focus on operating performance and growth. For global funds like GIP it offers a foothold in Australia’s iron ore backbone at a time when long-dated infrastructure assets with predictable cash flows are in high demand.

BHP said the deal will not affect any existing joint-venture agreements within its Australian operations. But the move underlines a broader rethinking underway in the mining world about what needs to sit on miners’ balance sheets — and what can be monetized without undermining operational control.

With competitors already mapping out divestments and partnership opportunities, BHP’s agreement with GIP signals that the next phase of capital strategy in the mining sector may be less about outright ownership and more about finding ways to unearth value from the infrastructure that keeps the world’s biggest mines moving.

Why Are Altcoins Down in 2025?

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2025 has been a tale of two cryptos: Bitcoin (BTC) soaring to new highs above $100K, while most altcoins—everything from Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) to smaller L1s like Avalanche (AVAX) and Cardano (ADA)—have bled out, down 15–60%+ year-to-date (YTD).

This isn’t just random volatility; it’s a structural shift in how capital flows, influenced by macro forces, institutional behavior, and market psychology. Think of it as BTC hogging the buffet while alts fight over scraps.

BTC dominance— BTC’s share of total crypto market cap has hovered around 55–65% for most of 2025, far higher than the 40–50% lows that typically kick off “altseason.” When BTC pumps up ~105% YTD, money rotates into BTC first, leaving alts sidelined.

Historical patterns show alts only rally when BTC stabilizes or dips below 55% dominance, but that hasn’t happened yet. Institutions and risk-averse investors park funds in BTC as the “safe” crypto play.

As one analyst noted, “Bitcoin’s strength comes from deep-rooted fundamentals: macro relevance, regulatory clarity, and institutional trust.” Alts, meanwhile, get treated like speculative side bets—down 80–90% from all-time highs for many.

Total altcoin market cap excluding BTC and stables is still ~9% below 2021 peaks, inflated only by new 2025 launches diluting older tokens. On X, traders echo this: “All roads lead to Bitcoin first… no altseason when Bitcoin is dropping” or pumping without rotation.

Spot BTC ETFs have sucked in billions like BlackRock and Fidelity piling into BTC and ETH, but altcoin ETFs remain stalled or limited. Approvals for tokens like SOL and HBAR started late in the year, but demand hasn’t materialized yet—unlike BTC’s $30B+ inflows.

Big money like pensions, hedge funds sticks to “blue-chip” cryptos due to lower perceived risk. As Willy Chuang of TrueNorth put it, “Institutional investors are largely driving the current Bitcoin rally, and they have minimal interest in altcoins.”

This creates a liquidity bottleneck: BTC absorbs new capital, starving alts. ETH ETF inflows hit $177M last week, but that’s dwarfed by BTC’s, and broader alt volumes are up only 20% sporadically.

X sentiment blames “ponzi DAT shenanigans” propping BTC while alts tank. Global M2 money supply growth correlates strongly with BTC (76-day lag), but alts need “spillover” liquidity that hasn’t arrived.

The Fed’s hawkish minutes in May and October meetings signaled slower rate cuts, boosting the US dollar and crushing risk assets. Inflation fears from jumping oil prices added fuel. Alts are hyper-sensitive to liquidity squeezes—think profit-taking after BTC milestones or correlated stock dumps.

Open interest in futures plunged from $250B to $142B by November, signaling fear and reduced leverage. Precious metals like gold also crashed alongside crypto in October, as the dollar rebounded. Rate cuts like the 25bps in October had a 2–3 month lag, so November–December relief is MIA.

While BTC enjoys clarity, alts face SEC scrutiny and delayed ETF approvals. A government shutdown scare in late 2025 amplified fears, and ongoing liquidations like the 1.6M investors wiped in October keep sentiment in “fear” mode.

Traders book profits on alts during dips, and narratives (AI, memes) fizzle without regulatory tailwinds. As one report states, “The regulatory landscape slowly becomes more defined and risk appetite stays muted.”

No broad alt ETF approvals until Q4, stalling inflows. 2025 saw a flood of new L1s and tokens like Hyperliquid’s HYPE, diluting the pie. Retail panic-selling during BTC dips amplifies this—alts drop harder 20–30% vs. BTC’s 10–15%.

Early-year FOMO rotates to alts (January–May seasonal pattern), but by mid-year, it’s retreat mode. Influencers hype, then dump, eroding trust. Older alts like ADA and AVAX are 40–60% off highs, while “total alts” look less bad due to fresh launches.

Experts aren’t writing alts off—2025’s pain could set up a monster 2026 rally if BTC bottoms ~$58K projected low and liquidity explodes. Watch for BTC dominance <55%, Altcoin Season Index >75, and ETH leading the charge.

Until then, it’s BTC’s world—alts are just living in it. If you’re holding, stack patience; if buying, wait for fear to peak. Crypto’s a marathon, and 2025 was the ugly middle miles.

US Shifts Stance on North Korea, Signaling Openness to Talks with Kim Jong Un

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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his daughter Kim Ju Ae visit the Ministry of National Defense on the occasion of the 76th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army in Pyongyang, North Korea in this picture released on February 9, 2024 by the Korean Central News Agency. KCNA via REUTERS

The Trump administration released its updated global security roadmap, a key policy document outlining national defense priorities for the coming years.

Notably absent from this document is any explicit reference to the “complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization” (CVID) of North Korea—a cornerstone of US policy toward Pyongyang since the 2018 Singapore summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un.

This omission has sparked widespread speculation that Washington is deprioritizing the long-stalled denuclearization goal in favor of pragmatic diplomacy, potentially paving the way for renewed high-level talks as early as 2026.

During Trump’s first term (2017–2021), the US pursued an aggressive “maximum pressure” campaign, combining sanctions, military exercises with South Korea, and personal diplomacy with Kim.

The three Trump-Kim summits produced vague commitments to denuclearization but collapsed over demands for sanctions relief versus verifiable steps from North Korea. The Biden administration maintained CVID as the baseline but saw no progress, with North Korea conducting over 100 missile tests since 2022, advancing its ICBM and submarine-launched capabilities.

The New Roadmap

Released amid escalating US-China tensions and Russia’s deepened ties with North Korea including arms transfers for Ukraine war support, the document emphasizes threats from China, Iran, and non-state actors while redirecting focus to “extended deterrence” alliances with allies like South Korea and Japan.

North Korea’s nuclear program—now estimated to include 50–60 warheads and missiles capable of reaching the US mainland—is not addressed, marking a departure from the 2017 National Security Strategy, which labeled it a “second-tier” existential threat.

Both the US and South Korean governments quickly clarified on December 8 that no formal policy shift has occurred and denuclearization “remains the ultimate goal.” However, analysts interpret the silence as deliberate, reflecting Trump’s personal affinity for Kim and a desire to avoid provoking Pyongyang while testing waters for “peaceful coexistence” without preconditions.

Hong Min, a senior researcher at South Korea’s Korea Institute for National Unification, described it as a “conscious intent” to revive dialogue by sidelining the divisive CVID demand. Trump’s Hints at Renewed TalksTrump has long touted his “special relationship” with Kim, once claiming they “fell in love” over letters exchanged post-2019.

In recent months, he’s amplified signals of openness :September 2025 Overture from Kim: During a Supreme People’s Assembly speech, Kim Jong Un explicitly invited talks, stating: “If the US drops its hollow obsession with denuclearization and wants to pursue peaceful coexistence… there is no reason for us not to sit down.”

He added fond personal memories of Trump, contrasting this with rejection of dialogue with South Korea, which he views as a “foreign enemy.” Trump’s Response interviews and social media posts since his January 2025 inauguration, Trump has echoed this, saying he’s “proactive” about meeting Kim again “to get something done” and floated ideas like economic incentives without tying them to disarmament.

At the October 2025 APEC summit in South Korea, Trump reportedly raised North Korea in side talks with Xi Jinping, though no breakthroughs emerged. SSome analysts ramed it as a pragmatic win for de-escalation, while critics called it a concession to a “nuclear rogue state.”

Experts like Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies see it as lowering hostility to enable 2026 summits, possibly focusing on arms control (e.g., missile test freezes) or confidence-building measures rather than full disarmament.

Kim views such talks as regime validation, especially with North Korea’s arsenal now “irreversible” in his words. Dropping CVID might erode US credibility with allies South Korea fears abandonment; Japan worries about missile threats and embolden proliferators globally.

North Korea’s ties with Russia and China give it leverage, but Trump could counter with sanctions relief tied to verifiable limits on long-range strikes. With US-China rivalry dominating the roadmap, North Korea becomes a secondary lever—potentially traded for concessions on Taiwan or trade.

If talks materialize, they could echo the “freeze-for-freeze” proposals floated by China/Russia in 2017, halting tests in exchange for scaled-back US-South Korea drills. While official channels downplay the change, the roadmap’s silence speaks volumes.

Trump appears willing to meet Kim on equal footing, betting his rapport can yield stability without the “absurd obsession” of total disarmament. Whether this leads to de-escalation or a nuclear fait accompli remains the trillion-dollar question—literally, given the economic carrots Trump has dangled.

Bitcoin Mining Profitability Hits Record Lows in Late 2025

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Bitcoin mining profitability has plummeted to unprecedented lows in recent months, driven by a perfect storm of declining cryptocurrency prices, surging network difficulty, and subdued transaction fees.

As of early December 2025, key metrics like hashprice—a measure of daily revenue per terahash of computing power—have dipped below $35 per petahash per second (PH/s), marking the lowest levels in Bitcoin’s history.

This has pushed many miners into “survival mode,” with equipment payback periods stretching beyond 1,200 days and operational costs averaging $44–$45 per PH/s, leaving slim-to-negative margins for all but the most efficient operators.

Key Factors Behind the Downturn

Several interconnected pressures are squeezing miners: BTC has fallen around 20% from its 2025 peaks near $110,000, trading in the $80,000–$90,000 range. This directly erodes revenue from block rewards currently 3.125 BTC per block post-2024 halving.

The network hashrate hit a new high of 1.16 zettahashes per second (ZH/s) in October, pushing mining difficulty to an all-time high of 156 trillion. The next adjustment on December 11 is forecast to rise further to 149.8 trillion, intensifying competition.

Average fees are at multi-year lows ~$0.58 per high-priority transaction, reducing ancillary revenue as on-chain activity cools. Electricity, hardware depreciation, and financing expenses have climbed, with all-in mining costs for one BTC reaching $137,800 cash costs at $74,600.

Public miners’ market caps dropped 16% in November alone. These conditions mark the fourth consecutive month of declining profitability, per JPMorgan analysis, with daily block rewards averaging $41,400 per exahash—down 14% from October and 20% year-over-year.

Faced with breakeven or losses, 70% of top public miners like Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, CleanSpark are diversifying into AI/high-performance computing (HPC). They’ve raised $6 billion for GPU infrastructure and secured $15.5 billion in contracts, including IREN’s $9.7 billion five-year deal with Microsoft.

However, AI revenue remains too nascent to fully offset mining losses, leading to predictions of a “shakeout” where inefficient operators capitulate and sell BTC holdings—potentially creating short-term supply pressure but long-term network stabilization.

Despite the gloom, some optimism persists: JPMorgan recently upgraded stocks like CleanSpark and Cipher Mining, sparking a rally in miner equities. Miners are also stockpiling BTC like MARA holds 53,250 BTC worth $5.6 billion, betting on a price rebound.

For a typical modern ASIC miner (e.g., 390 TH/s hashrate, 7,215W power draw at $0.05/kWh electricity): Daily gross revenue: ~$0.015–$0.02 per TH/s. Daily net profit: As low as $6.27 after costs for a full rig—barely covering expenses.

~$90,000+ for most setups; below that, operations turn unprofitable. While Bitcoin’s network security is at peak strength, miner economics are in crisis—echoing past cycle bottoms. Survival hinges on BTC climbing above $90,000 or successful AI transitions.

For individual miners, now’s the time to audit costs or consider hosting in low-energy regions; for investors, this could signal a contrarian entry if capitulation accelerates.

As of December 2025, Ethereum mining as we knew it—GPU-intensive proof-of-work (PoW) operations—has been obsolete for over three years, thanks to “The Merge” upgrade in September 2022.

This shift to proof-of-stake (PoS) ended traditional mining on the mainnet, redirecting the ecosystem toward staking and validator nodes. While this made Ethereum 99.95% more energy-efficient and scalable, it left former miners grappling with sunk costs in hardware and disrupted revenue streams.

ETC mining uses similar hardware but yields ~$0.01-0.02/TH/s daily—viable only with cheap electricity <$0.05/kWh. Broader altcoin shifts like Monero or Ravencoin face ASIC resistance but volatile rewards.

Post-Merge, ~37% of blocks remain OFAC-compliant censoring sanctioned txs, down from 78%, but MEV-Boost relays centralize block building. Validators often large pools exploit sequencing, creating bottlenecks akin to pre-Merge mining pools.

In 2025, small miners dominate Reddit threads lamenting “get-rich-quick” failures, while firms like BitMine report $4B losses on ETH exposure. Miners aren’t standing still—70%+ have diversified: Staking as the New “Mining”: Lock ETH to validate blocks and earn ~3-5% APY.

Pools like Lido lower barriers min. ~0.01 ETH, but centralization risks persist. ETC leads for GPU reuse, followed by Ravencoin and Monero. Cloud mining platforms like HashJ or IeByte offer ETH-payout proxies without hardware, using GPU scheduling for 10-20% returns.

Ex-miners like CoreWeave repurpose rigs for AI cloud services, securing $15B+ contracts. Cysic’s ComputeFi turns GPUs into liquid resources for ZK-proofs and Ethereum block proving. Protocols like Lithos (on Ergo) introduce decentralized PoW with fraud proofs, slashing invalid work for trustless pools.

Public firms blend BTC mining with ETH staking, while cloud/community models emerge to sidestep hardware woes. Ethereum’s PoS era prioritizes accessibility over raw compute, but challenges like L1 revenue erosion (vs. L2s) and ETH’s SoV competition from stablecoins persist.

In essence, Ethereum “mining” challenges are now staking and adaptation hurdles—echoing Bitcoin’s 2025 lows but with greener upside. If BTC rebounds to $120K, ETH could hit $10K, buoying yields. Stay lean, diversify, and watch L2s: they’re the real profitability frontier.