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How Fintech Platforms Like OneFunded Are Democratising Access to Institutional Trading Capital in Emerging Markets

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In most accounts of Africa’s fintech revolution, the focus falls on payments: M-Pesa in Kenya, Flutterwave and Paystack in Nigeria, mobile money penetration across the continent. These are real and consequential innovations. But there is a parallel story that receives less attention – the emergence of infrastructure that allows skilled African traders to access institutional-scale capital without emigrating, without institutional affiliations, and without the personal capital that has historically been the only entry ticket to professional-level markets participation.

The talent-capital mismatch in African trading is structural and well-documented. Nigeria alone has produced thousands of technically proficient retail traders who understand derivatives, manage positions across multiple asset classes, and follow global macro developments with the same rigour as their counterparts in London or Singapore. What separates them from those counterparts is not skill. It is starting capital. A trader in Lagos who has developed a consistent edge trading with ?500,000 (approximately $300) faces a ceiling that has nothing to do with their ability and everything to do with the capitalisation constraint inherent to retail trading at small account sizes.

Proprietary trading platforms – the category of fintech infrastructure that provides evaluation-based access to institutional capital – address this mismatch directly. They represent one of the more significant, and underreported, access stories in African fintech.

Skill Over Capital: What Prop Platforms Actually Do

The conventional path to managing institutional capital runs through credentials: a finance degree, a trading desk apprenticeship, a track record at a regulated firm. These pathways are structurally inaccessible to the majority of talented traders in sub-Saharan Africa, not because the talent is absent but because the credentialing infrastructure is geographically concentrated and the entry costs are prohibitive.

Prop trading platforms replace that credentialing pathway with a performance-based one. The trader pays a fee – typically between $50 and $500 depending on the account size sought – to access a structured evaluation. If they demonstrate the ability to hit a defined profit target (usually 8–10% of account value) while observing strict risk management constraints (a 5% daily drawdown limit and a 10% overall maximum), they receive a funded account at the agreed size. The firm deploys its own capital; the trader keeps 70–90% of any profits generated.

The entire process is digital, asynchronous, and geography-agnostic. A trader in Accra competing in the same evaluation as a trader in Amsterdam is assessed by identical criteria: profit generated, drawdown observed, consistency demonstrated. The platform does not know or care where either trader lives. It knows whether they passed or failed.

This is, in fintech terms, a classic disintermediation story. The institutional capital allocation mechanism – which previously required physical presence on a trading floor, access to the right networks, and the personal capital to demonstrate skin in the game – has been decomposed into its essential components and reassembled as a digital service accessible from any internet connection.

The Technical Infrastructure Behind Evaluation Platforms

The operational requirements of a prop trading platform are more demanding than the consumer-facing interface suggests. Running a reliable evaluation system for traders across dozens of countries simultaneously requires:

Real-time risk enforcement that monitors open position P&L against daily drawdown limits on a tick-by-tick basis. When a trader’s equity reaches the daily limit, the system must respond – suspending new orders and closing open positions where necessary – within seconds. Any lag in this response creates a window where losses exceed the firm’s modelled maximum on an individual account.

Low-latency execution infrastructure connected to a regulated liquidity provider, ensuring that the prices at which traders enter and exit positions reflect actual market conditions rather than artificial spreads that would distort evaluation outcomes.

Automated payout processing capable of routing withdrawal requests to multiple payment rails depending on the trader’s location and preference. This is where the Africa-specific infrastructure challenge is most acute, and where the quality of implementation varies most significantly across platforms.

Fraud detection and consistency monitoring that identifies patterns inconsistent with genuine discretionary trading: copy trading, group accounts, or statistical arbitrage strategies that exploit evaluation mechanics rather than demonstrating the individual risk management skill the evaluation is designed to test.

Platforms that have invested in this infrastructure as an integrated system – rather than assembling third-party tools without cohesion – produce more reliable outcomes for traders: drawdown calculations that match the stated rules, payouts that process within published timelines, and risk enforcement that is consistent rather than arbitrary.

Payout Rails: How Earnings Reach Traders in Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya

The payout question is the most practically significant for African traders, and the one that the industry handles with the greatest inconsistency. A trader in Lagos who generates $2,000 in profit on a funded account needs that money to arrive in a form that is accessible and cost-efficient. The mechanics of how that happens depend heavily on which platform they are using and which payment rails that platform supports.

Three routes have become standard for West and East African traders:

Wise (formerly TransferWise) operates in Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya, supporting local currency receipt in NGN, GHS, and KES respectively at real exchange rates with significantly lower fees than traditional wire transfers. Wise’s supported currencies page confirms all three are available for local delivery, along with ZAR for South Africa and TZS for Tanzania. For traders receiving regular monthly payouts in the $500–$2,000 range, Wise is typically the most cost-efficient option available.

USDT (Tether) on the TRC-20 or ERC-20 network has become the de facto settlement rail for traders in markets where banking infrastructure adds friction to international transfers. In Nigeria in particular – where access to foreign currency through official banking channels has been constrained by Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) policy for much of the past decade – USDT receipt via a local exchange or peer-to-peer platform is frequently the fastest and most accessible path to converting prop trading earnings into local currency. The stablecoin’s USD peg removes currency conversion risk from the settlement step.

Bank wire transfer remains available and is the preferred route for traders in South Africa, Kenya, and Ghana who have access to international-friendly banking relationships. Processing times of 2–5 business days and higher transfer fees make this less suitable for smaller regular payouts but more cost-competitive for larger quarterly settlements.

Each of these routes carries tax reporting obligations in the trader’s home jurisdiction that should be addressed with a local adviser. In Nigeria, income from foreign sources is assessable under the Personal Income Tax Act. In Ghana, the Income Tax Act 2015 covers foreign-source income for residents. In Kenya, the Income Tax Act requires disclosure of all worldwide income. The documentation that accompanies a USDT or Wise payment from a foreign entity is typically sufficient to evidence the source; the trader’s obligation is to declare it accurately.

OneFunded and the Infrastructure-as-Access Model

Within the prop trading platform category, OneFunded represents the infrastructure-as-access approach applied at a level of operational rigour that is relevant for traders in markets where platform reliability is not guaranteed. The firm operates with no geographic restrictions on participation, meaning traders from Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, and across the African continent access the same evaluation conditions, the same funded account parameters, and the same payout infrastructure as traders in the United States or Germany.

Payout methods include both Wise and USDT, covering the two routes most functionally accessible to African-based traders. The evaluation mechanics – profit target, drawdown limits, minimum trading days – are fully documented pre-purchase, which matters in a market where traders have limited recourse if a platform behaves inconsistently with its stated terms. The beginner-tier challenge reduces the upfront evaluation fee, which is a material consideration in markets where $300 represents a significant outlay relative to median incomes.

The broader implication is not specific to OneFunded. It is about what the existence of this category of platform means for traders in markets where the capital barrier has always been the binding constraint. The prop trading model has effectively created a new entry point into professional-scale trading that is available to anyone with a functional internet connection, a disciplined strategy, and the fee for an evaluation. In high-income markets, this is a convenient alternative to self-capitalisation. In African markets, for a cohort of genuinely skilled traders who have been boxed out of meaningful participation by capital constraints, it is something more significant.

The Honest Challenges

The access story is real, but it is incomplete without accounting for the structural barriers that limit how many African traders can actually realise it.

Internet infrastructure remains uneven. The latency and reliability required to trade forex and indices effectively – particularly during the London open and New York session when most of the relevant instruments are most active – is available in Lagos, Nairobi, Accra, and Johannesburg but significantly less consistent in secondary cities and rural areas. A trader who experiences internet disruption at a critical moment during an evaluation can breach a drawdown limit through no trading decision of their own. Most platforms have no recourse mechanism for this.

Payment rail friction for the challenge fee itself is a real obstacle. Paying $200 to a foreign entity from Nigeria requires navigating CBN restrictions on international card payments, which have varied significantly in recent years. USDT payment of the challenge fee resolves this for many traders, but adds a conversion step and introduces the basis risk of USDT acquisition at local P2P rates that may differ from the official USD rate.

Regulatory grey areas exist in most African jurisdictions. The prop trading challenge model does not fit cleanly into existing frameworks for securities trading, gambling, or financial services. Most regulators have not issued specific guidance on the model, which means traders operate in a space where the legal classification of their activity – and the tax treatment of their earnings – is subject to interpretation. This creates compliance uncertainty that a trader in a well-regulated market does not face.

Platform risk is higher in this market segment than in conventional financial products. Prop trading platforms are not covered by deposit protection schemes or investor compensation frameworks. A platform that fails or refuses payouts leaves traders with limited recourse. The due diligence burden falls entirely on the trader, which requires access to reliable community information – something that is increasingly available through African trader communities on Telegram and Discord, but unevenly distributed.

The Broader Fintech Implication

The prop trading platform model is one instance of a broader pattern in emerging market fintech: the decomposition of access barriers that were previously structural and geographic into problems that can be addressed with well-designed digital infrastructure. Mobile payments addressed the banking access barrier. Digital lending addressed the credit access barrier. Prop trading platforms, for a specific and skilled cohort, address the capital access barrier in one of the world’s most genuinely meritocratic markets – financial trading – where skill is the only durable edge and where geography has historically been one of the primary determinants of whether that skill gets deployed at meaningful scale.

The model is not a solution for everyone. It requires existing skill, existing discipline, and a reliable enough internet connection to execute under real market conditions. But for the cohort of African traders for whom those conditions are met and for whom the capital barrier is the remaining obstacle, it represents a genuinely new infrastructure layer – one that did not exist ten years ago and that the continent’s growing trader population is beginning to use.

Maersk Warns Energy Crisis Will Not Automatically End if Iran War Ends

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Danish shipping giant Maersk warned Thursday that the Iran war is inflicting mounting damage on global trade economics, with soaring fuel prices adding nearly $500 million to the company’s monthly costs and raising fears that a prolonged energy shock could eventually choke consumer demand worldwide.

The warning from one of the world’s largest container shipping companies sent Maersk shares down 7%, their steepest daily decline in more than a year, as investors focused less on current freight demand and more on the longer-term inflationary risks emerging from the Middle East conflict.

Chief Executive Vincent Clerc said the disruption caused by the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had dramatically altered the cost structure of global shipping. According to Clerc, bunker fuel prices have surged from roughly $600 per metric ton to nearly $1,000, adding around 3 billion Danish crowns, or approximately $473 million, to Maersk’s monthly operating expenses.

“The energy crisis does not go away the day peace comes,” Clerc said during a press conference. “Oil companies I speak to expect it to last at minimum several more months, possibly many more months.”

The remarks highlight growing concern among corporate leaders that the economic consequences of the conflict may outlast any eventual ceasefire. While financial markets have frequently reacted to short-term headlines surrounding negotiations between Washington and Tehran, major industrial companies are increasingly preparing for a scenario in which elevated energy prices become embedded across the global economy well into 2027.

For the shipping industry, fuel represents one of the largest operating expenses, meaning sustained oil price increases ripple rapidly through global supply chains. So far, Maersk said it has managed to pass higher costs onto customers through spot-rate increases and renegotiated contracts.

But executives warned that the broader macroeconomic danger lies ahead. Clerc said freight demand has remained resilient through April and May, with global container growth tracking near the upper end of Maersk’s annual forecast range of 2% to 4%.

That resilience underpins how consumers and businesses have continued spending even as energy prices climbed sharply following the outbreak of the war. However, Maersk cautioned that the delayed impact of higher fuel costs could eventually spread into broader inflation, weaken household purchasing power, and reduce trade volumes.

The company warned that a combination of persistently high energy prices, slowing consumer demand, and a glut of new vessel deliveries could create what Clerc described as “a dangerous cocktail” for the industry. The concern is remarkable because Maersk is widely viewed as one of the clearest barometers of global trade activity. Weakness in container shipping often signals deteriorating industrial output, slowing retail demand, and weakening economic momentum across major economies.

The company’s latest warning, therefore, extends beyond shipping and into broader fears about the trajectory of the global economy. Analysts say the energy shock triggered by the Iran war increasingly resembles a classic supply-side inflation crisis, where transportation and fuel costs push prices higher even as economic growth weakens.

That dynamic complicates the outlook for central banks already struggling to balance inflation risks against slowing growth. The war has severely disrupted Gulf shipping routes after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important maritime chokepoints through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply normally passes.

Maersk confirmed that six of its vessels remain trapped in the Gulf. Although Clerc said only 2% to 3% of global container trade flows directly to and from the Gulf region, the indirect impact through energy markets has become far more consequential.

Oil prices surged above $125 per barrel earlier this week before easing slightly amid hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran.

Shipping executives and economists warn that even if Hormuz reopens soon, logistical normalization could take months because tankers, inventories, and global cargo networks have already been severely disrupted.

The crisis is also reviving pressure on alternative maritime routes. Maersk has continued rerouting vessels around Africa instead of using the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, extending voyage times and increasing fuel consumption. The rerouting trend has strained global shipping capacity and contributed to higher freight rates across several trade lanes.

Clerc noted that there have been no attacks this year in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement, and said Maersk is evaluating whether conditions may allow a gradual return to those routes. Still, he stressed that security concerns remain significant.

“The one limiting factor is the limitation of availability of either escorts or monitoring assets from different European, U.S. or other navies to make sure that the crossing is safe,” he said.

Maersk’s earnings illustrated the conflicting pressures facing the industry. The company reported first-quarter EBITDA of $1.73 billion, beating analyst expectations of $1.66 billion but remaining sharply below the $2.71 billion recorded a year earlier.

Freight rates declined 14% year-over-year during the quarter before rebounding sharply after the war erupted. Analysts say the industry is also confronting a structural overcapacity problem as a wave of newly built vessels enters the market following years of aggressive ordering during the pandemic-era shipping boom.

Morningstar analyst Ben Slupecki warned that the overcapacity issue is likely to intensify into 2027 because of the large number of ships scheduled for delivery. That means shipping companies could soon face a painful combination of elevated costs and weaker pricing power if global demand slows.

Tesla’s China-Made EV Sales Jump 36% in April, Extending Recovery Streak Amid Fierce Local Competition

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Tesla posted its sixth consecutive month of year-over-year sales growth in China in April, with deliveries of vehicles produced at its Shanghai Gigafactory rising 36% from a year earlier, according to data released Thursday by the China Passenger Car Association.

The company delivered 79,478 units of the Model 3 and Model Y built in Shanghai last month. While April sales were down 7.2% from March, the strong annual comparison signals that Tesla is gradually regaining momentum in its second-largest market after a difficult 2025 marked by heavy market share losses to aggressive local rivals.

The performance highlights Tesla’s resilience in China, where it faces intense price competition from domestic EV makers offering advanced technology at lower price points. At the same time, the figures underscore the critical importance of the Shanghai plant, which serves not only the domestic market but also exports vehicles to Europe and other regions.

A major constraint on faster growth remains regulatory approval for Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, widely viewed by Chinese consumers as a key premium feature. Tesla now expects to secure full FSD approval in China by the third quarter, Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja said in April — a delay from the company’s earlier target of the first quarter.

In Europe, internal emails from regulators reviewed by Reuters reveal continued skepticism toward the technology, suggesting approval timelines there could also slip. These delays are particularly painful because autonomous driving capabilities have become a major battleground in the premium EV segment.

Tesla also saw a recovery in several key European markets last month, including Sweden, France, and Denmark. Higher oil prices resulting from the U.S.-Iran conflict helped boost demand for battery electric vehicles across the continent. This comes after Tesla lost nearly half its European market share in 2025, a sharp decline driven by rising competition from both European legacy automakers and Chinese newcomers.

To counter the wave of cheaper Chinese rivals, Tesla is accelerating development of a more compact, lower-priced SUV to be produced in China, according to sources familiar with the matter. The new model is seen as essential for Tesla to broaden its appeal in the world’s largest EV market, where price sensitivity has increased significantly as more affordable options flood the market.

The competitive pressure in China is intense. Local champions such as BYD, Nio, XPeng, and Li Auto have rapidly improved their technology, design, and pricing, forcing Tesla to defend its premium positioning while simultaneously working on more accessible vehicles.

April’s strong China performance provides some relief for Tesla after a bruising period. However, analysts predict that the company’s long-term success in the country will depend on several factors: securing timely FSD approval, successfully launching the new compact SUV, and maintaining brand desirability in an increasingly crowded and price-sensitive market.

China remains vital to Tesla’s global ambitions. The Shanghai Gigafactory is one of the company’s most efficient plants and a major export hub. Strong performance there not only boosts revenue but also helps absorb fixed costs and supports economies of scale across Tesla’s global operations.

The recovery in both China and parts of Europe suggests Tesla may be turning a corner after a challenging 2025. But experts, even Tesla bulls, believe that sustaining the growth will require navigating regulatory hurdles, managing intense local competition, and delivering on promises around autonomous driving technology that many customers are eagerly awaiting.

Tesla’s April sales rebound is an encouraging sign, but the launch of new models and broader FSD rollout, as well as its ability to defend and expand market share in China, will be one of the most important variables shaping its performance in 2026.

Google Rewrites Tech Recruitment, Plans To Let Software Engineers Use AI Assistants In Job Interviews

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Google is beginning to dismantle one of Silicon Valley’s oldest traditions: the idea that elite software engineers should solve coding problems entirely on their own.

The company is piloting a new interview process that will allow software engineering candidates to use artificial intelligence assistants during portions of the hiring process, a major acknowledgment that the profession itself is being fundamentally reshaped by generative AI.

The change, detailed in an internal document reviewed by Business Insider, is part of a broader overhaul designed to align hiring with what Google calls the “modern engineering landscape.” The company plans to initially test the format with select U.S. teams before potentially expanding it globally.

Under the pilot, candidates applying for junior to mid-level engineering roles will be permitted to use an approved AI assistant during Google’s “code comprehension” interview round. Applicants will be expected to read, debug, and optimize existing codebases while demonstrating how effectively they collaborate with AI systems.

“Interviewers will evaluate AI fluency, including prompt engineering, output validation, and debugging skills,” the document stated.

Google confirmed the initiative and said candidates in the pilot phase will use Gemini, the company’s flagship AI model.

“We’re always evolving our interview processes to ensure we’re recruiting and hiring the best talent,” Google Vice President of Recruiting Brian Ong told Business Insider. “As a part of that, we’re rolling out a pilot for software engineering interviews to be more reflective of how our teams are operating in the AI era.”

The decision marks a significant break from decades of hiring orthodoxy in the technology industry, where technical interviews have long revolved around whiteboard coding challenges, algorithm memorization, and unaided problem-solving under pressure.

For years, those interviews served as a gatekeeping mechanism for elite engineering talent. But the rapid rise of AI coding assistants is now forcing companies to confront a difficult question: if professional engineers increasingly rely on AI tools in their day-to-day work, does testing them without AI still measure the right skills?

Google’s answer appears to be no.

The overhaul reflects how deeply AI-generated coding has already penetrated the company’s operations. In April, Google disclosed that roughly 75% of new code produced internally now involves AI-generated contributions. OpenAI President Greg Brockman recently said the industry has moved from AI generating roughly 20% of code to closer to 80% in some environments.

The result is a profound shift in what it means to be a software engineer. The industry is rapidly moving away from a model where engineers spend most of their time manually writing code toward one where they increasingly supervise, refine, and validate AI-generated output. That transition places growing importance on judgment, systems thinking, and the ability to detect errors or hallucinations rather than purely syntactic coding ability.

Google’s interview redesign is effectively institutionalizing that reality. The company’s internal document describes the new format as “human-led, AI-assisted” and says the process is intended to better simulate an engineer’s actual workflow “in the GenAI era.”

The interview changes extend beyond coding rounds. Google’s long-running “Googleyness and Leadership” interview, traditionally focused on culture fit and behavioral questions, will now include technical design discussions centered on candidates’ prior engineering work.

Meanwhile, one technical interview round for junior candidates will be replaced with broader “open-ended engineering challenges,” signaling a move away from rigid algorithmic testing toward assessing adaptability and real-world engineering judgment.

The pilot will initially launch across several Google divisions, including Google Cloud and the Platforms and Devices unit.

As AI Redefines Coding

The shift also underscores that artificial intelligence is no longer viewed merely as a productivity enhancement tool. It is increasingly redefining corporate structures, hiring priorities, and workforce composition.

Companies across Silicon Valley are racing to redesign engineering organizations around AI-assisted development. Anthropic, OpenAI, Microsoft, and Meta have all aggressively integrated AI coding systems into internal workflows, while startups are increasingly building products with smaller engineering teams than would previously have been possible.

But that trend has fueled mounting concerns about the future of entry-level software jobs. Traditionally, junior engineers learned through repetitive debugging, maintenance work, and incremental coding assignments. AI systems are now automating much of that labor. This has stirred concern that the disappearance of those foundational tasks could weaken the apprenticeship pipeline that historically produced senior engineering talent.

Yet Google’s hiring experiment indicates that major firms increasingly view AI fluency itself as a core professional skill. In this new framework, engineers are not expected to compete against AI systems. They are expected to know how to work alongside them.

That philosophy is already gaining traction elsewhere in the industry. AI coding startup Cognition and design platform Canva are among the companies that now permit candidates to use AI tools during technical interviews. Many believe that banning AI in hiring assessments no longer reflects how software is actually built.

Emily Cohen, head of people and operations at Cognition, compared prohibiting AI use to banning calculators in mathematics.

“I guess this is like asking a kid to take a math test without a calculator,” she told Business Insider. “For the bulk of building something similar to what you would do on the role, you can and should use AI tools.”

The implications could extend far beyond recruitment. Google’s move signals that Silicon Valley may be entering a post-whiteboard era where engineering prestige is defined less by memorizing algorithms and more by managing increasingly sophisticated AI systems.

That transition could reshape university computer science programs, technical certifications, and the broader labor market for software developers. It may also intensify competitive pressure on engineers themselves.

As AI lowers barriers to writing code, companies may place greater emphasis on creativity, product intuition, infrastructure design, and cross-functional thinking, skills that are harder to automate. Engineers who fail to adapt to AI-assisted workflows risk becoming less competitive in a rapidly evolving market.

But the interview overhaul is partly defensive for Google. The company is under intense pressure to prove it can remain dominant in an industry being rapidly disrupted by generative AI. Rivals including OpenAI, Anthropic, and Microsoft have accelerated the pace of AI adoption across software development, forcing Google to modernize not only its products, but also the way it recruits talent.

The result is a striking reversal for an industry that once treated AI-assisted coding as a form of shortcutting. At Google now, knowing how to use AI effectively may soon become one of the most important qualifications a software engineer can possess.

Kalshi Doubles Valuation to $22 Billion as Wall Street Rushes Into Prediction Markets

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Prediction market platform Kalshi has raised $1 billion in a new funding round that values the startup at $22 billion, marking the explosive growth of event-based trading markets as institutional investors increasingly treat them as a new financial asset class.

The Series F round, announced Thursday, doubles Kalshi’s valuation from the $11 billion mark it reached just five months ago during its previous fundraising.

The financing was led by Coatue, with participation from heavyweight technology investors including Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, and Paradigm.

Kalshi said the fresh capital would be used to accelerate adoption among hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, asset managers, and insurance companies, a sign that prediction markets are evolving far beyond their early image as speculative retail betting platforms.

The company is also expanding institutional-focused products, including block trading services, broker integrations, and risk-management tools aimed at attracting large pools of capital.

“Kalshi is building the leading platform for trading in real-world events,” said Philippe Laffont, founder of Coatue. “Consumers have already embraced it, and we believe institutions will follow.”

The speed of Kalshi’s ascent has drawn comparisons to the early stages of the artificial intelligence boom, particularly as investors search for new high-growth financial technology sectors capable of generating large-scale network effects.

“There are few categories in recent history that have scaled this quickly outside of AI,” said Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour. “Event contracts could become a trillion-dollar market, and we’re still in the early stages of that transition.”

The company told Bloomberg that its annualized revenue has surpassed $1.5 billion, a figure that would place it among the fastest-growing financial technology firms globally.

Kalshi’s rise marks a broader transformation in financial markets, where investors are increasingly trading probabilities tied to political outcomes, economic indicators, weather events, corporate decisions, and geopolitical developments. Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to real-world outcomes, with prices effectively representing the market’s collective probability estimate of an event occurring.

Once viewed as niche products sitting somewhere between gambling and forecasting, prediction markets have gained growing legitimacy as sophisticated investors use them to hedge risks and gauge sentiment. The sector expanded dramatically during the U.S. election cycle and amid heightened geopolitical volatility linked to conflicts in the Middle East and global economic uncertainty.

Kalshi, alongside rival Polymarket, helped drive mainstream interest in the category by allowing users to trade on events ranging from election outcomes and central bank decisions to sports and pop culture moments.

Industry analysts say the rapid institutionalization of prediction markets could fundamentally alter how financial firms manage uncertainty. Instead of relying solely on traditional derivatives or macroeconomic models, firms are increasingly experimenting with event contracts as tools for pricing geopolitical risk, regulatory outcomes, and market-moving developments in real time.

Insurance companies, for example, could potentially use prediction markets tied to climate risks or natural disasters, while hedge funds may deploy them to hedge exposure to elections, wars, or monetary policy shifts.

That institutional interest appears to be accelerating quickly. Kalshi said trading activity from institutional clients has surged 800% over the past six months, while the company claims to account for roughly 90% of prediction market activity in the United States.

The firm’s regulatory positioning has also given it a significant advantage. Unlike some offshore competitors, Kalshi operates under oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, allowing it to legally offer event contracts in the U.S. market. That distinction became especially important after regulatory restrictions hampered Polymarket’s U.S. operations following a 2022 ban.

Still, the rapid growth of prediction markets is also drawing scrutiny from regulators and policymakers concerned about market manipulation, gambling risks, and the potential politicization of financial speculation. It is argued that highly liquid markets tied to elections, conflicts, or disasters could create incentives for disinformation campaigns or attempts to influence outcomes for financial gain.

While some warn that the blending of trading and entertainment could increase speculative behavior among retail users, particularly younger investors already active in cryptocurrency and meme-stock markets, others counter that prediction markets often aggregate information more efficiently than traditional polling or analyst forecasts, producing more accurate real-time probability assessments.

The debate is likely to intensify as companies like Kalshi expand deeper into institutional finance.