Danish shipping giant Maersk warned Thursday that the Iran war is inflicting mounting damage on global trade economics, with soaring fuel prices adding nearly $500 million to the company’s monthly costs and raising fears that a prolonged energy shock could eventually choke consumer demand worldwide.
The warning from one of the world’s largest container shipping companies sent Maersk shares down 7%, their steepest daily decline in more than a year, as investors focused less on current freight demand and more on the longer-term inflationary risks emerging from the Middle East conflict.
Chief Executive Vincent Clerc said the disruption caused by the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had dramatically altered the cost structure of global shipping. According to Clerc, bunker fuel prices have surged from roughly $600 per metric ton to nearly $1,000, adding around 3 billion Danish crowns, or approximately $473 million, to Maersk’s monthly operating expenses.
“The energy crisis does not go away the day peace comes,” Clerc said during a press conference. “Oil companies I speak to expect it to last at minimum several more months, possibly many more months.”
The remarks highlight growing concern among corporate leaders that the economic consequences of the conflict may outlast any eventual ceasefire. While financial markets have frequently reacted to short-term headlines surrounding negotiations between Washington and Tehran, major industrial companies are increasingly preparing for a scenario in which elevated energy prices become embedded across the global economy well into 2027.
For the shipping industry, fuel represents one of the largest operating expenses, meaning sustained oil price increases ripple rapidly through global supply chains. So far, Maersk said it has managed to pass higher costs onto customers through spot-rate increases and renegotiated contracts.
But executives warned that the broader macroeconomic danger lies ahead. Clerc said freight demand has remained resilient through April and May, with global container growth tracking near the upper end of Maersk’s annual forecast range of 2% to 4%.
That resilience underpins how consumers and businesses have continued spending even as energy prices climbed sharply following the outbreak of the war. However, Maersk cautioned that the delayed impact of higher fuel costs could eventually spread into broader inflation, weaken household purchasing power, and reduce trade volumes.
The company warned that a combination of persistently high energy prices, slowing consumer demand, and a glut of new vessel deliveries could create what Clerc described as “a dangerous cocktail” for the industry. The concern is remarkable because Maersk is widely viewed as one of the clearest barometers of global trade activity. Weakness in container shipping often signals deteriorating industrial output, slowing retail demand, and weakening economic momentum across major economies.
The company’s latest warning, therefore, extends beyond shipping and into broader fears about the trajectory of the global economy. Analysts say the energy shock triggered by the Iran war increasingly resembles a classic supply-side inflation crisis, where transportation and fuel costs push prices higher even as economic growth weakens.
That dynamic complicates the outlook for central banks already struggling to balance inflation risks against slowing growth. The war has severely disrupted Gulf shipping routes after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important maritime chokepoints through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply normally passes.
Maersk confirmed that six of its vessels remain trapped in the Gulf. Although Clerc said only 2% to 3% of global container trade flows directly to and from the Gulf region, the indirect impact through energy markets has become far more consequential.
Oil prices surged above $125 per barrel earlier this week before easing slightly amid hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran.
Shipping executives and economists warn that even if Hormuz reopens soon, logistical normalization could take months because tankers, inventories, and global cargo networks have already been severely disrupted.
The crisis is also reviving pressure on alternative maritime routes. Maersk has continued rerouting vessels around Africa instead of using the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, extending voyage times and increasing fuel consumption. The rerouting trend has strained global shipping capacity and contributed to higher freight rates across several trade lanes.
Clerc noted that there have been no attacks this year in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement, and said Maersk is evaluating whether conditions may allow a gradual return to those routes. Still, he stressed that security concerns remain significant.
“The one limiting factor is the limitation of availability of either escorts or monitoring assets from different European, U.S. or other navies to make sure that the crossing is safe,” he said.
Maersk’s earnings illustrated the conflicting pressures facing the industry. The company reported first-quarter EBITDA of $1.73 billion, beating analyst expectations of $1.66 billion but remaining sharply below the $2.71 billion recorded a year earlier.
Freight rates declined 14% year-over-year during the quarter before rebounding sharply after the war erupted. Analysts say the industry is also confronting a structural overcapacity problem as a wave of newly built vessels enters the market following years of aggressive ordering during the pandemic-era shipping boom.
Morningstar analyst Ben Slupecki warned that the overcapacity issue is likely to intensify into 2027 because of the large number of ships scheduled for delivery. That means shipping companies could soon face a painful combination of elevated costs and weaker pricing power if global demand slows.
