On July 28, 2023, I wrote “Nigeria will either pause the full floating of its currency or return back to fuel subsidy within 6 months.” The fuel subsidy has since returned at scale. Here are my sources:

Source #1: “Asiwaju  ( President Bola Tinubu) announced withdrawal of fuel subsidy on 29th May , but believe it or not , fuel subsidy is back , we’re spending more now, about N8 trillion on subsidy than before 29th of May…But as I also said earlier during my presentation, the removal of fuel subsidy by the present administration is another good policy by President Tinubu.

“I have always supported withdrawal of fuel subsidy. But as you can see, in the course of implementation, the government has now realized that the subsidy has to be back, because right now, we are paying a lot of money amounting to trillions of naira for subsidy even more than before, because the impact has been seen and the packages of support that will reduce the impact have not been effective in reducing the impact, and so, the federal government has to backpedal by subsidizing petrol. “ – Nasir El-Rufai, former governor of Kaduna State on AriseTV

Source #2: “When Mr. President came May last year, one of the things he said is that Subsidy is gone. And truly subsidy was gone because immediately the price of fuel moved from 200 to 500 per liter. At that point truly, subsidy was gone. During that period, Dollar was exchanging for N460, but a few weeks later, the government devalued the exchange rate. And Dollar moved to about N750. At that point, subsidy was beginning to come back.

“The moment the two markets officially closed, officially the market went to about N1,300. At that point, that conversation was out of the window. Subsidy was fully back on petrol. If you want to know where petrol should be, just look at where diesel is. Diesel is about N1,300 and petrol is still selling for N600.

“So I can tell you for free that there there is at least N400 or N500 liters subsidy on petrol today. If you look at our daily consumption, say 40 million liters, and we’re spending N500 per liter, that is about N20 billion every day, N600 billion every month and 7.2 trillion yearly depending on how we look at it. So, subsidy is definitely back on petrol,” CEO of Rainoil Limited, Gabriel Ogbechie.

Our call has been validated. My position in July 2023 was that it was IMPOSSIBLE for the government to keep petrol price at a free market rate when Naira was floated. Only one could work at a time to avoid a vicious loop of negative continuum. This is simple AO Lawal O’Level Economics on inelastic products.

Good People, even at a full production capacity of Dangote Refinery, Nigeria will continue to subsidize fuel, because petrol is a huge product in Nigeria with the middle class families and their generators. Indeed, you can draw a correlation on how a faded rail system facilitated the destruction of Nigerian roads, until we have electricity from the national grid, petrol will remain in the family budgets.

On July 28, 2023, I wrote “Nigeria will either pause the full floating of its currency or return back to fuel subsidy within 6 months.” The fuel subsidy has since returned at scale. Here are my sources:

Source #1: “Asiwaju ( President Bola Tinubu) announced withdrawal of fuel… pic.twitter.com/AtD7f3z8sM

— Ndubuisi Ekekwe (@ndekekwe) April 18, 2024

Amidst its immense diversity and complex socio-economic fabric, the African continent is carving out a formidable presence in the global wealth arena with the number of millionaires and billionaires in the continent rising significantly.

The latest edition of the Africa Wealth Report for 2024, a collaborative effort between Henley & Partners and New World Wealth, unveils a compelling narrative of Africa’s burgeoning wealth landscape.

With a staggering investable wealth tallying at USD 2.5 trillion, coupled with a projected surge of 65% in its millionaire populace over the forthcoming decade, Africa emerges as a pivotal player in the global economic narrative.

In its ninth iteration, the annual report meticulously dissects Africa’s high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), revealing a current count of 135,200 individuals boasting liquid investable assets exceeding the USD 1 million mark. Furthermore, the continent boasts 342 centi-millionaires and an impressive cohort of 21 billionaires. Although compared to other continents, Africa still lags, mainly due to its multifaceted challenges obstructing economic growth.

Among the challenges are currency depreciation and underperforming stock markets.

“Currency depreciation and underperforming stock markets have chipped away at Africa’s wealth compared to global benchmarks,” notes Dominic Volek, Group Head of Private Clients at Henley & Partners. “The South African rand fell 43% against the US dollar from 2013–2023, and currencies in most other African countries also performed poorly compared to the dollar over the past decade.”

Volek added that currencies in most other African countries also performed poorly compared to the dollar over the past 10 years, with dramatic depreciations of over 75% recorded in Nigeria, Egypt, Angola, and Zambia.

Echoing Volek’s sentiment, Andrew Amoils, Head of Research at New World Wealth, noted the impact of migration on Africa’s wealth trajectory.

“Approximately 18,700 high-net-worth individuals have left Africa over the past decade,” Amoils reveals. “Most of these individuals have relocated to countries such as the UK, the USA, Australia, and the UAE.”

Nevertheless, Africa remains a crucible of opportunity, boasting some of the world’s fastest-growing markets. The ‘Big 5′ wealth markets – South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Kenya, and Morocco – stand as a testament to Africa’s economic vibrancy, commanding over 56% of the continent’s millionaires and over 90% of its billionaires, according to the report.

Despite facing challenges over the past decade, including a 20% decline in its millionaire population, South Africa still boasts the largest population of HNWIs in Africa. With 37,400 millionaires, 102 centi-millionaires, and 5 billionaires, South Africa leads the continent in terms of wealth concentration. Egypt follows closely behind with 15,600 millionaires, 52 centi-millionaires, and 7 billionaires.

Nigeria ranks third with 8,200 HNWIs, followed by Kenya with 7,200 millionaires, Morocco with 6,800, and Mauritius with 5,100. Algeria, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Namibia are the top 10 wealthiest countries in Africa, with varying numbers of HNWIs ranging from 2,300 to 2,800. Despite economic challenges, these countries continue to attract and sustain affluent populations, contributing to their positions as key players in Africa’s wealth growth.

Moreover, burgeoning economies such as Mauritius, Namibia, and Zambia are poised to witness exponential growth in their millionaire populations over the next decade.

Renowned South African political commentator Justice Malala noted Africa’s economic prowess, projecting Sub-Saharan Africa as the second-fastest-growing region globally in 2024, trailing only behind Asia.

The growth prospect has opened room for Africa to expand its leadership role globally. With Africa expected to claim 11 out of the 20 fastest-growing economies globally, African leaders are clamoring for greater representation in international decision-making forums.

“With Russia, China, the USA, and the EU all jostling for favor on the continent, African leaders have become more emboldened and are demanding a seat at the top tables. These will come with closer relationships between continental leaders and other “middle powers” such as India, Turkey, Argentina, and Saudi Arabia. Already, Ethiopia and Egypt have joined the BRICS grouping and the African Union has become a permanent member of the G20. Previously, only South Africa was in these exclusive clubs,” said Malala.

He added that with growth projected at 4% by the IMF, Sub-Saharan Africa will be the second-fastest–growing region in the world in 2024, after Asia.

Though the wealth comes from many sectors of the continent’s economy, real estate stands out – with some cities claiming the lion’s share of the growth.

In real estate, Johannesburg and Cape Town emerged as veritable bastions of wealth, with promising growth trajectories witnessed in cities such as Kigali, Windhoek, and Marrakech.

Louisa Mojela and Nontobeko Ndhlazi of WIPHOLD extol Africa’s allure for investment, attributing its appeal to a youthful demographic dividend and rapid urbanization.

In luxury real estate, Cape Town reigns supreme, closely followed by Grand Baie in Mauritius and select cities in South Africa and Morocco. Berry Everitt, CEO of the Chas Everitt International property group, notes Africa’s allure in the global luxury real estate arena, propelled by a burgeoning demand fueled by demographic and urbanization trends.

However, Africa’s economic mobility is stifled by passport limitations, constraining citizens’ ability to traverse international boundaries for business and investment endeavors.

According to the report, only two African passports, those of Mauritius and Seychelles, grant their holders access to more than 50% of global GDP without requiring a visa in advance. This is despite Africa being home to some of the most open nations in the world based on the Henley Openness Index, which measures visa-free access to other countries. While many African countries are open in terms of visa-free access, the economic power and influence associated with global GDP access remain limited for most African passport holders.

“Africa tops the list of rejections with 30% or one in three of all processed applications being turned down, even though it had the lowest number of visa applications per capita. This was 12.5% higher than the global average,” said Mehari Taddele Maru, part-time professor at the School of Transnational Governance and Migration Policy Centre.

“The rejection rates for African applicants for Schengen visas are generally 10% higher than the global average, three times higher than the highest rejection rate, and ten times higher than for US-Americans. Despite justifications based on security or economic concerns, the European visa system clearly demonstrates apparent bias against African applicants.”

However, the report noted that Africa is ascending in the global wealth echelons – underpinning a continent on the precipice of transformation, brimming with opportunities for discerning investors. It however emphasized the need for friendly immigration policies as investment migration is emerging as a potential further mechanism to accelerate Africa’s economic growth.

“By offering residence and citizenship by investment opportunities, African countries can attract vital foreign capital, stimulate job creation, and foster knowledge transfer,” said Volek.