In the final result called by INEC, Nigeria’s election umpire, here are the main summaries, from the 36 states of the federation and Abuja:

Tinubu of APC scored the highest votes; 8,805,420 votes and won 12 states (Rivers, Borno, Jigawa, Zamfara, Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Niger, Ekiti, Ondo, Oyo,  Ogun).

Atiku (PDP) scored 6,984,290 votes; won 12 states (Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Kaduna, Gombe, Yobe, Bauchi, Adamawa,  Taraba,  Osun, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa).

Obi (LP) got 6,093,962; won also 12 states (Edo, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, FCT, Plateau, Imo, Ebonyi, Nasarawa, Anambra, Abia, Enugu)

Kwankwaso (NNPP) won 1,496,671 votes and won a state – Kano State.

Using the results, Tinubu scored at least 25% of votes in 29 states; Atiku (21) and Obi (16). One needs at least 24 or 25 states (including Abuja). Based on that, Tinubu gets the call.

Pending a determination that the total canceled votes (many of them across the nation) will not change the outcome, INEC will do the trigger and make a call for Tinubu.

Yet, this is a really low-turnout election which is contrary to alternate data. In 2019, APC received 15,191,847 votes while PDP finished with 11,262,978 votes, giving at least 26 million to elect the president. In 2023, you have about 21 million voters. In 2015, the number was about 28.2 million.

The pollsters are correct: Obi wins with high turnout, but Tinubu wins with low turnout. This election, from official numbers, is low turnout but INEC has to explain how it lost at least 5 million voters in a cycle where more people registered, collected PVCs, etc, implying that voter suppression possibly changed the outcome.

The West Africa Elders Forum (WAEF) Election Mission to Nigeria has urged the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to comply with the electoral law and the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, in the process of collating the election results.

The WAEF’s election mission, led by former Ghana president, John Dramani Mahama and includes former Nigerian president, Goodluck Jonathan, former Beninoise President, Boni Yayi, former Vice President of The Gambia, Fatoumata Jallo Tambajang, among others, issued the statement after days observing the electoral processes.

The Mission said although the election has been largely peaceful, it has been characterized by challenges of delay in arrival of electoral materials, voter suppression, ballot box vandalization and incidents of violence in some states, which created anxiety among citizens who were passionate to cast their ballots.

The situation, which is increasingly heating up the polity – creating a room for potential unrest as protests have erupted in some places across the country – including INEC collation center in Abuja, is largely based on the electoral umpire’s failure to transmit election results electronically according to electoral laws.

Given Nigeria’s role in the stability of the West African region, the Mission urged INEC to thoroughly investigate those concerns and comply with the electoral law and the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, in the process of collating the election results.

Below is the full text of the statement:

STATEMENT BY WEST AFRICAN ELDERS FORUM (WAEF) ON NIGERIA’S FEBRUARY 25, 2023, 2023 ELECTIONS ISSUED IN ABUJA, NIGERIA, FEBRUARY 28, 2023

The West Africa Elders Forum (WAEF) Election Mission to Nigeria, 2023, wishes to commend Nigerians for the resilience and patriotism displayed during the Presidential and National Assembly election which held on Saturday February 25, 2023.

In December 2022, we deployed a pre-election mediation mission led by former Sierra Leonean President, His Excellency Ernest Bai Koroma to interface with key stakeholders. Our Election Mission led by former Ghana president, His Excellency John Dramani Mahama which has been in the country since last week, witnessed election day proceedings on February 25, 2023 and has continued to observe the unfolding developments, since the collation process began.

Other members of the Mission include former Beninoise President His Excellency Boni Yayi, former Nigerian President His Excellency Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, former Vice President of The Gambia, Her Excellency Fatoumata Jallo Tambajang, former Burkinabe Prime Minister and President of the Economic Community of West African States His Excellency Kadre Ouedraogo, and former Deputy Chair of the African Union, Dr. Erastus Mwencha.

The Mission noted how Nigerians across the country demonstrated faith and patriotism in their country, defying many challenges to perform their civic duties. While the elections were peaceful in a number of places, challenges of delay in arrival of electoral materials, voter suppression, ballot box vandalization and incidents of violence in some states, created anxiety among citizens who were passionate to cast their ballots.

We commend Nigerians for the calmness, patience and maturity they have continued to exhibit as they wait for the collation process to be concluded.

The Mission notes that some political parties and concerned citizens have raised procedural questions and allegations of infractions of the electoral law in the process of collation of results. We call on all aggrieved parties to document and present their claims to INEC, in accordance with the Electoral Act 2022.

The Mission notes the imperative of retaining the confidence of Nigerians in the ongoing electoral process and, therefore, urges the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to thoroughly investigate those concerns and comply with the electoral law and the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, in the process of collating the election results.

We reiterate that Nigeria is a major stakeholder in the sustainability of democracy in West Africa and the responsibility of maintaining the nation’s thriving democracy and the general peace of our sub-region rest on all our shoulders, especially on the integrity of INEC and other election management bodies in West Africa, during elections. We therefore urge INEC to live up to its responsibility of delivering free, fair and credible elections, in accordance with the nation’s laws.

WAEF urges political parties, candidates and their supporters to remain calm and peaceful while awaiting the final outcome of the electoral process.

As former leaders who are committed to peace and stability in our sub-region, we have begun a round of consultations with some of the presidential candidates and other key stakeholders, taking to them our message of hope, understanding and peace.

So far, WAEF have held meetings with some of the presidential candidates including the Presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso and the Presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in Abuja.

This afternoon we also held consultations with the All Progressives Congress Presidential candidate Senator Bola Tinubu and the Labour Party Presidential candidate, Mr. Peter Obi, in an expanded meeting that included the Heads of Missions of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union (AU), His Excellency Ernest Bai Koroma and His Excellency Uhuru Kenyatta, respectively, as well as the President of the ECOWAS Commission, His Excellency Dr. Omar Alieu Touray.

We have continued, in all of these meetings, to urge the candidates and their supporters to maintain peace and use all available legitimate means to sort out their concerns and grievances. We hope to sustain this Mission until the electoral processes are successfully concluded.

We, therefore, urge everyone to be circumspect in their actions and responsibilities, during this moment in order not to jeopardize the collective stability and peace of the nation.

Signed:

H.E. John Dramani Mahama

President of the Republic of Ghana

(2012-2017)

Head of WAEF Mission to Nigeria’s 2023

H.E. Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan

President, Federal Republic of Nigeria (2010-2015)

Convener, WAEF