Nigeria’s business climate gathered more momentum in October 2025, with the Business Confidence Index rising to 111.3 points from 107.9 in September, according to the latest NESG–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor.

The new reading marks one of the strongest sentiment levels recorded this year and reinforces a growing sense of optimism across the private sector.

The BCM report shows that businesses are increasingly upbeat about current conditions, encouraged by easing inflation, a steadier exchange rate, and an improvement in overall macroeconomic stability. The upward movement also tracks a major year-on-year rebound from the 76.8 points recorded in October 2024, a period when operators were far more cautious about economic prospects.

The monitor noted that the domestic business environment “maintained its positive trajectory,” with the Current Business Performance Index holding firm in expansion territory. The warmth in sentiment reflects perceptions that the economy is adjusting to earlier shocks more effectively, allowing firms to plan with fewer disruptions.

A detailed sector review shows that all five major economic segments—Manufacturing, Trade, Agriculture, Services, and Non-Manufacturing—recorded expansion in October. Manufacturing and Trade delivered the most notable gains, rising by 8.8 points and 7.8 points respectively, to reach 111.3 and 115.4. Non-Manufacturing closed at 115.0, while Agriculture and Services posted 111.4 and 111.0.

Agriculture maintained its forward push, climbing from 107.3 points in September to 111.4 in October. Crop Production and Agro-Allied operations were the main drivers. Improved seed varieties, targeted government input programmes, and the softer inflation profile helped boost confidence among farmers and processors. Exchange-rate stability also eased pressure on operators who rely on imported inputs. Livestock and Forestry registered gains, though at a slower pace than the previous month.

Even with the improvement, Agriculture still faces barriers. Shortages of raw materials, recurring outbreaks of livestock diseases, and higher feed and input costs continue to squeeze producers. These pressures raise production costs and filter into market prices, limiting how far operators can push output without eroding margins.

Manufacturing posted one of its strongest recoveries this year. The sector’s index jumped to 111.3 points from 102.5 in September. Key segments such as Food, Beverage, and Tobacco, as well as Cement, recovered after slipping in the previous month. Businesses attributed the rebound to a more reliable power supply, improved access to finance, and better navigation of policy and regulatory hurdles.

Firms also reported that a more stable foreign exchange market helped them stabilize import planning and reduce the unpredictability that had weighed heavily on operations earlier in the year.

The Services sector maintained its modest growth path, rising to 111.0 points from 108.5 in September. The gains were backed by improvements across different service activities and a macroeconomic backdrop shaped by lower inflation and reduced currency volatility. However, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, along with Other Services, recorded slower growth. The BCM noted that this exposes the fragility still lingering within the broader services industry, which remains sensitive to shifts in financing conditions and consumer spending power.

The report urged authorities to pursue economic reforms with greater urgency. It pointed to the need for infrastructure upgrades, security improvements, and expanded access to credit, warning that sustained momentum would require clearer policy coordination and firmer support for productive sectors.

The higher BCM reading carries broader implications. It shows that private-sector operators are beginning to rebuild confidence after years of unpredictable macroeconomic swings. The renewed optimism is tied to the pockets of stability that have emerged in recent months, from cooling inflation to a more predictable FX market. With all major sectors staying firmly in expansion mode, the recovery appears more evenly spread instead of being driven by isolated industries. Analysts often see broad-based expansion as a sign that underlying economic conditions are strengthening rather than masking weaknesses.

The BCM aligns with other indicators pointing to improved activity. For instance, the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 56.4 in November from 55.4 in October, marking a stronger and more widespread increase in private-sector output. That rise reinforced the sense that the economy is gaining sturdier ground as the year progresses.

October’s BCM reading places Nigeria on a firmer footing heading into the final months of 2025. The challenge now lies in maintaining this momentum and ensuring that policy direction continues to support the conditions that have allowed confidence to rise across the country’s biggest economic sectors.

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