In June 2020, I wrote, “The weakest link in MultiChoice’s DStv business is defending itself from Netflix. Netflix was picking some of its best customers in South Africa. Also, because Netflix was not under the high voltage searchlight DStv was subjected as a local operating company, by regulators, the cost was not optimized to compete against  the global juggernaut which does not need to open many African locations to do business in the continent. No matter how you look at it, DStv was going to struggle for years to manage the problems from Netflix.” Then, magically, there was a truce and Netflix chose DStv as a distributor. That was wisdom as Disney+ and Amazon Prime were coming after it; the distraction in Africa was not evidently necessary.

On the same day, I wrote another piece, noting, “By 2022, I expect Disney+ and Apple to also arrive on DStv. It is a natural trajectory: supply while great does not matter that much in fragmented markets in Africa when there is a dominant player with demand. DStv has been around for decades, and catching up with it would take years. But working with DStv, these American firms can move into revenue accelerations since the presence of Netflix and Amazon will strengthen DStv brand.”

Today, I report that MutiChoice, owner of DStv and GOtv, has signed partnership with Walt Disney to bring ESPN into its decoders.

That brings that unification to another level. In this business, supply is not absolutely the  king,  the person with demand has a great positioning. DStv has demand and will use it to milk much from these players before the cost of data drops to the extent that most Africans will go direct to streaming. As it stands, only the very “rich” can afford streaming since it has two elements of costs: the subscription and broadband data. The PayTV option remains fairly cheaper for most families in the continent.

This is how Nnamdi Odumody captured it on LinkedIn on President Trump’s upcoming ban of TikTok and Wechat in the U.S.

The recent Executive Order by President Donald Trump to ban the parent company of TikTok(Bytedance) and WeChat (TenCent) operations in the United States of America will create a perfect opportunity for Huawei to execute it’s Double Play Strategy playbook. With it’s Hongmei Operating System, it could witness a migration of Chinese owned apps if Beijing decides to retaliate with a ban on Google’s Android Operating System operations in China. Google will be the biggest loser as Chinese applications provide more than 25 percent of it’s Playstore revenues.

Besides the Play Store revenue for Google in China, the biggest risk is this: Chinese hardware makers can abandon Android and adopt Huawei’s Harmony OS for their phones. Harmony has been developed to overcome Trump’s ban of Huawei’s access to U.S. technologies including Android. In my non data-backed estimate, more than 60% of Android smartphones sold in the developing world are assembled in China even if the logos do not carry Chinese brands. So, if companies like Tecno, Oppo, Mi and more decide to abandon Android, Google will have stress in its business model.

Of course, nothing significant changed as Huawei remains banned. Today, Huawei has a mobile OS – HarmonyOS – and now ready to take on Android.  This competitive challenge will happen in phases. Yes, the speculation is over: Android has a real competitor in the developing world. Simply, if other Chinese phone makers like Tecno, Oppo and Mi band together into HarmonyOS, Android may be an endangered species in Africa. I expect them to make that call!

Yes, Google does not make a significant volume of Android hardware, unlike Apple which has exclusivity of the hardware which runs on its proprietary software, iOS. Simply, Google works with many partners for the hardware – the smartphones, smartwatches and tablets. So, if the Chinese phone makers revolt, expect the Android business model to crack not just in the developing world but also in the developed world where Android phones assembled in China are used.

The deal is this: the Chinese government does not even need to retaliate to the new ban. With Tencent included now after ByteDance, joining Huawei and ZTE, they may decide that now is the time to make the switch. So, in the near future, expect your Tecno, Infinix, Oppo, Mi, etc phones to be running on Harmony!

President Trump has fired the first data bullet to China: “ban TikTok and Wechat from operating in the US in 45 days if they are not sold by their Chinese parent companies”. This is not a small playbook from the U.S. The stake here is huge for most companies including African companies Tencent has invested in. Because most African tech-startups are incorporated in the US, this ban will keep their legal units busy. To avoid causing issues for these firms, let me not mention them, but Tencent has funded and supported most startups in Africa, including Nigeria.

President Trump has signed an executive order to ban U.S. transactions with ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, as well as WeChat owner Tencent. The move was issued under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and comes into effect in 45 days, following growing tensions with China over security concerns. Microsoft (LinkedIn’s parent company) is currently in talks to acquire the U.S. operations of video-sharing app TikTok, which has up to 80 million active monthly users in America (LinkedIn)

With this ban, it is all-level assaults as two great nations battle for the soul of the 21st century. In the last ten centuries, China has ruled in at least six, economically. But the U.S. is the economic leader now and doing all to keep it that way. When Alibaba Group’s Ant Financial could not get MoneyGram, I knew quickly that the U.S. was going to battle on data. Here we are: the first world data warfare.

Humans are the same, the only difference is the economic opportunity which shapes behaviour to a large extent. Since the pandemic began, crime has risen in most parts of the developed world as people do crazy things to survive. Fighting for data becomes the path to that future survival. 

China is ferociously competitive and the U.S. is going for collateral damage to defend its castle. No one is safe and there would be many unintended consequences. MTN Group is selling assets in the Middle East as it works partly to avoid this indirect tension.

How would China respond? Ban Microsoft Windows or Apple iPhone? Not really because those would be own-goals to China. For every Windows sold, China makes money because the machines which power Windows are largely assembled in China for Dell, HP, Lenovo and others. Of course, despite the latest re-localization, China remains the lab for assembling Apple products. I think China will just chill – it has met an unpredictable American leader that cannot be modeled by any communist party algorithm. That would be wisdom because any nonsense move, Trump can delist all Chinese companies in Wall Street!

Meanwhile, it is party time for Facebook with this assault on TikTok. The founder has crossed $100 billion in wealth. The Reels does not need to be great; it simply needs to be ok. With other Instagram features, many will stick with it as not many would like to have many apps in their phones. Instagram brings a unification in this space and having many features in one app saves time and helps many people.

Instagram is taking on TikTok with the global launch of short-form video rival Reels. It debuted in 50 countries, including the U.S., on Wednesday, and Facebook is offering lucrative incentives to popular TikTok creators to woo them over to Reels. The new rivalry is unfolding as TikTok faces an uncertain future in the U.S., though Microsoft (LinkedIn’s parent company) is in talks to acquire U.S. operations. TikTok’s CEO accepted the challenge from Instagram by saying “bring it on.”