I wrote a piece a few minutes ago where I quoted a Wall Street banker, noting that Nigeria’s break-even point for oil, is $133 per barrel. Some people have asked questions via comments. Let me throw more lights on that number.

Nigerian generates about 60% of its revenue from Oil and 90% of foreign exchange. Nigeria is generating massive losses for every barrel it produces. Nigeria spends 4X as much money subsidizing fuel as it spends on schools, healthcare, etc. Nigeria’s breakeven is at $133 per barrel! Cost to produce is about $17 per barrel. Millions of barrels are sitting around unsold. Nigeria is losing $35M a day in unsold inventory. Country debt stands at $84B,  and 2/3 of its revenue goes towards servicing it, and China holds the majority of it through bilateral agreements.

The $133 per barrel break-even point is the number for Nigeria to get any sustained value in oil. Some banks  model fraud, leakages, subsidies, opportunity cost, loss of value of assets, etc to arrive at that. That is different from the typical break-even point for accounting ( the point at which total cost and total revenue are equal, i.e. “even”). This one focuses on developmental economics of commodities which tracks opportunity costs lost.

So, you can produce at $17 crude oil, sell it at $30 but import it back via 4-6 different products with massive subsidies, steal some parts of that $30, refuse to invest some parts of that $30 for the future, etc, they think you need to sell at $133 to breakeven on that stupidity to compensate! It is different from typical accounting where selling at $30 could deliver breakeven, after adding other costs to the cost of production. That accounting breakeven does not include the future opportunity costs of that lack of visioning which has characterised Nigeria for decades. The developmental breakeven captures that!

 Simply, unless we sell at $133, oil cannot save Nigeria’s future.This number saves you from all wastes before the oil wells drop, using estimated reserves and when they will run dry. If you are not selling at $133 per barrel now, oil has not served you!

https://www.tekedia.com/nigeria-could-go-bankrupt-like-venezuela/

Good People, I am very happy to announce that we now have a local presence in Southern Africa to make it easier to connect with innovators and co-learners in the Tekedia Mini-MBA. South Africa and the broad Southern Africa brought some of the largest members in our current program. So, when @Sifiso wrote to us that he would like to establish a local company that would focus on expanding our works in the area, we were thrilled. He dropped that email with a keyword, “Fantastic” training. He is a current member, and this are his words.

Another great insight by Ndubuisi Ekekwe. He keeps them coming fast. Many of us miss the significance of stories that make the news headlines. For the past few years, I have followed Ndubuisi (even digging up some of his old articles). Everything tech globally and in Africa is treated with same incisive analysis and broken down as it happens.

This year, it has been a privilege to be in the mini-MBA he is running through his Tekedia Institute (USA). Weekly case studies based on current events and the underlying strategy constructs have made it easy to understand the rise and fall of technology-based businesses.

Given current trends, I am glad I took the decision to follow and enroll in the mini-MBA. Friends interested in joining the next course (22 June to 22 October 2020) can explore the course and contents at https://results.institute

Ladies and gentlemen, the payment issue is solved and fixed, Results Institute Continuing Education is approved to collect payments as a Regional Partner (Southern Africa) for Tekedia Institute.

Once Covid-19 passes, I would be visiting Cape Town and Johannesburg as usual to continue what we do therein. South Africa has always supported my works, baptizing me as a “Doctor of Innovation” after a well received program for bank leaders in Africa’s most advanced economy.

If you are in Southern Africa, Results Institute can answer any question you may have on Tekedia Institute. It is working in Zimbabwe, South Africa, etc linking governments, corporations, startups, etc for Tekedia Mini-MBA. Visit the site here – https://results.institute/

https://www.tekedia.com/mini-mba-2/

Good People, we have added the following sectors under Sector Innovation and Focus for the second edition of Tekedia Mini-MBA: Logistics, Ecommerce, Fintech, EdTech, Agtech and HealthTech. Only Founders or CEOs of related startups would facilitate them. Meanwhile, an MIT expert on supply chain management will handle a session on Effective Supply Chain Management. Our updated courses and faculty are available here.

https://www.tekedia.com/mini-mba-2/

Why is Facebook investing on connectivity in Africa and Latin America? Why is Google putting resources to expand mobile internet in Africa and beyond? Answer: every IP is an IP even though you can segment the value derivable by regions. So, if you put $100 million to provide affordable internet to people, increasing your number of users, Wall Street could boost your stock by $1 billion. It is the same playbook that is used in retail: give away $10 million through promos on the last few days of the quarter, reporting increase on same store percentages, and wait for your stock to add extra $100 million on market cap. As they always say, there is no free lunch in most parts of this world.

So, that brings me to the first Press Release from Apple signed by an Apple staff, telling Africans that it has launched new services. In short, Apple is telling us to help it tell the good people of  Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Libya, Morocco, Rwanda, Zambia, etc that its services are available in their nations.

 Apple® announced that starting today, even more customers around the world can enjoy many of Apple’s most popular Services. The App Store®, Apple Arcade™, Apple Music®, Apple Podcasts® and iCloud® are now available in 20 more countries, and Apple Music is available in 52 additional countries.

“We’re delighted to bring many of Apple’s most beloved Services to users in more countries than ever before,” said Oliver Schusser, Apple’s vice president of Apple Music and International Content. “We hope our customers can discover their new favorite apps, games, music and podcasts as we continue to celebrate the world’s best creators, artists and developers.”

[…]

The App Store, Apple Arcade, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts and iCloud are now available in the following countries and regions:

• Africa: Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Libya, Morocco, Rwanda and Zambia.

[…]

Apple Music is also expanding to the following countries and regions:

• Africa: Algeria, Angola, Benin, Chad, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Namibia, Republic of the Congo, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Tanzania and Tunisia.

This is the first time I am reading a direct press release from Apple which specifically mentioned African countries. It should not come as a surprise: Apple needs numbers because it has upgraded its strategy of selling proprietary hardware packaged with exclusive software, to one that focuses more on services. So, Apple needs numbers – anywhere those can come. Because without numbers, partnerships with retailers, vendors, etc staff.  That explains why that $300 iPhone will come within two years. If Apple sees good traction from here, it can make an affordable phone to serve the market. Everything will change, post-covid-19.

The full press release below.

Apple Services Now Available in More Countries Around the World

The App Store®, Apple Arcade™, Apple Music®, Apple Podcasts® and iCloud® are now available in 20 more countries, and Apple Music is available in 52 additional countries

CUPERTINO, California, April 21, 2020/ — Apple® (www.Apple.com) announced that starting today, even more customers around the world can enjoy many of Apple’s most popular Services. The App Store®, Apple Arcade™, Apple Music®, Apple Podcasts® and iCloud® are now available in 20 more countries, and Apple Music is available in 52 additional countries.

“We’re delighted to bring many of Apple’s most beloved Services to users in more countries than ever before,” said Oliver Schusser, Apple’s vice president of Apple Music and International Content. “We hope our customers can discover their new favorite apps, games, music and podcasts as we continue to celebrate the world’s best creators, artists and developers.”

The App Store, Apple Arcade, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts and iCloud are now available in the following countries and regions:

Africa: Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Libya, Morocco, Rwanda and Zambia.
Asia-Pacific: Maldives and Myanmar.
Europe: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Montenegro and Serbia.
Middle East: Afghanistan (excluding Apple Music) and Iraq.
Oceania: Nauru (excluding Apple Music), Tonga and Vanuatu.

Apple Music is also expanding to the following countries and regions:

Africa: Algeria, Angola, Benin, Chad, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Namibia, Republic of the Congo, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Tanzania and Tunisia.
Asia-Pacific: Bhutan.
Europe: Croatia, Iceland and North Macedonia.
Latin America and the Caribbean: the Bahamas, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Turks and Caicos and Uruguay.
Middle East: Kuwait, Qatar and Yemen.
Oceania: Solomon Islands.

The App Store, now in 175 countries and regions, is the world’s safest and most vibrant app marketplace, with over half a billion people visiting each week. It is the best place for users to discover new apps and allows developers of all sizes to distribute their apps to customers around the world. The App Store features many ways for developers to build their businesses, and since it launched in 2008, developers have been creating innovative apps that influence culture and change lives.

Apple Arcade is a groundbreaking game subscription service within the App Store, offering users unlimited access to the entire catalog of more than 100 exclusive games, all playable across iPhone®, iPad®, iPod touch®, Mac® and Apple TV®. Apple Arcade is adding new games and expansions every month from some of the world’s most visionary game developers.

Apple Music is the most complete music experience, now available in 167 countries and regions and offering more than 60 million songs.  With world-class music experts and tastemakers curating thousands of playlists and daily selections, and the renowned global radio station Beats 1, Apple Music is the best music service for iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch®, Apple TV, Mac, HomePod® and CarPlay®, and is also available on Android and and other devices.

New Apple Music subscribers in the 52 additional countries can enjoy a six-month free trial of the service, with locally curated playlists including Africa Now, Afrobeats Hits, Ghana Bounce and more. In addition, users have access to world-class music experts, tastemakers, and artist-led programs from globally celebrated creators including Virgil Abloh, Billie Eilish, Elton John, Pharrell, and more.

Apple Podcasts is the best place to browse and listen to the world’s largest catalog of podcasts, now featuring over 1 million shows in more than 100 languages and 175 countries and regions.

iCloud is an essential service that keeps users’ personal content safe, up to date, and available across all their Apple devices, allowing them to store a lifetime of photos, keep important documents at their fingertips, and share and collaborate with ease. iCloud backs up iPhone, iPad and iPod touch automatically and includes Find My to help locate and secure missing devices. With Family Sharing, up to six family members can share access to Apple Services, including Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple Music, iCloud storage, as well as individual music, movie, TV, book and app purchases. Available in 175 countries and regions, iCloud comes with 5GB of free storage and offers affordable 50GB, 200GB and 2TB plans.

For a full list of Apple Media Services availability around the world, please visit Apple Support (https://apple.co/34SAX9d).

Apple revolutionized personal technology with the introduction of the Macintosh in 1984. Today, Apple leads the world in innovation with iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch and Apple TV. Apple’s five software platforms — iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS and tvOS — provide seamless experiences across all Apple devices and empower people with breakthrough services including the App Store, Apple Music, Apple Pay and iCloud. Apple’s more than 100,000 employees are dedicated to making the best products on earth, and to leaving the world better than we found it.

Brian Bumbery
Apple