The relationship between acquisition cost and growth is at the heart of any startup operation. There are largely two paths to growth, and the one your startup follows will determine how fast you can grow through limitations imposed by marginal cost. When you follow the path that favors business models with scalable advantage tending towards “1”, your business will generate value faster.

When marginal cost goes low, a company can experience a virtuoso moment, anchored on network effects, where more users bring more partners, and more partners more users. But that happens to startups with certain characteristics which make it possible for them to INVERT the positioning of growth trajectory and acquisition cost typical in most traditional firms.  At scalable advantage of 1, the acquisition cost curve can even begin to flatten, and yet the growth will continue to experience positive slope. Google did not waste money in advertisement for years, and yet it was adding many users.

In this video, I explain the two most important plots that define how fast you can grow that business or startup, especially at the early phase, before maturity. It is about ascertaining the speed of growth through The Trajectory Advantage of a business.

You can revisit the Scalable Advantage video below.

Visa and MasterCard are on hangovers, doing everything possible to protect their current businesses. When you examine what they are doing in Africa, the mission is clear: on-board as many merchants as possible into the networks. By doing so, Visa and MasterCard will continue to enjoy their merchant fees, which are taxes imposed on merchants for their financial transactions passing through their networks.

But their minor competitor, American Express (AmEx), losing steam in many areas, is looking into the future. It is not protecting its network because it does not really have a large one, being a premium brand. But who cares if your card is “black” or red when the numbers are stored in digital wallets. Digital payment is attacking the heart of AmEx business, making what used to be luxury brand consistently irrelevant in the age of ecommerce.

In this video, I explain how AmEx is plotting its future with a product African fintechs should care more, over what Visa and MasterCard are marketing across African capitals and banking institutions. AmEx is  partnering with blockchain startup Ripple to use blockchain to move some international payments between the United States and Britain.

American Express has introduced instant blockchain-based payments using Ripple, a fintech startup, for U.S. corporate customers sending funds to U.K.-based businesses that bank with Santander U.K., the companies said on Thursday. American Express said its FX International Payments (FXIP) business had partnered with Ripple to provide real-time, trackable non-card payments from the United States to Britain. Customers are already using the service, the companies said, and it would be extended in the future.

While that is happening, innovators are soon going to make the use of cryptocurrencies to be as easy as using debit and credit cards. Square, a payment processing company, is experimenting with making it possible for users to sell and buy Bitcoin via its Cash mobile app. Simply, in near future, expect a Bitcoin credit or debit card and that will make Bitcoin mainstream, removing the geeky complexity for everyday person.

Payments company Square said it has started allowing select customers to buy and sell bitcoins on its Cash app, as it looks to tap into a craze that has sent the cryptocurrency up nearly sevenfold this year

This industry is moving very fast. MasterCard has filed a patent on a blockchain-based money transfer. Generally, I see a future where remittance fee will drop to near zero and commissions on payments will also. In a perfect Internet, there should not be a fee for moving money across the web, as I have explained on Tekedia. Blockchain will likely make that happen, as it removes frictions between buyers and sellers, and by that process removes the needs for companies to emerge,  to become intermediaries to fix those frictions.

AmEx is taking us to that future and our fintechs should take note because this is real. A partnership with AmEx will be more vital than what Visa and MasterCard are offering today in Africa, because AmEx operation is closer to the equilibrium point. Sure, AmEx focuses on richer people, which may not be common in Africa. Nevertheless, the forward thinking view on technology should be attractive for our leading banks to meet emerging business needs.

Always remember that blockchain can fix Africa’s intra-remittance. A company like AmEx may get there before most, with this bold vision.

In this videocast, I discuss the need to build a truly pan-African digital remittance/transfer banking product which is agnostic of location or currency in Africa. None of the products we have today meets that standard. Largely, I envisage a situation where all you need to buy and sell across Africa is one bank account in just one African Union country. With that, you do not have to even think about the specific currency of that account as technology will seamlessly make it possible to access other African markets for payments, transfer etc. The banks or fintech companies must still comply with all regulations related to inter-national transfers, forex etc. The only difference is that customers will not see them as they will be hidden with technology.

I admire China. That country is very brilliant in its technology policy. In its economic and commercial policies, it is not far behind. I do not know of any nation in history that has accomplished what it did. It condensed what took the West one hundred years into 25 years. China has a population that is bigger than Africa’s, but its people are not dying in the Mediterranean, for attempting to smuggle themselves into Europe for menial jobs.

Yet, China is not perfect. It is a puzzle that no one understands. The West will bash it, only for the next day to ask China to come to party. It is a country that has become so confident of itself that it wants most things done on its own terms.

Think about it: China banned Facebook in the country, but it is also one of the main advertises on Facebook. It does not make sense, but when you pay more attention, you will understand that China operates that way. For all it does in the world, it is what it thinks will help its economy that matters. If advertising on Facebook makes that possible, there is no problem with that.

Cisco is now on its 8th consecutive quarterly drop, not because of competition from any U.S. company, but because of one major Chinese company named Huawei. In a period of global expansion, who would have projected that Cisco will be in this type of mess. Huawei has won, not just on pricing but also on technology.

If you go deeper, the trouble in GE today and its cutting or eliminating dividends momentarily is because of competition from China. The more I study all the press releases and the statements from GE, the more I see one key factor: GE is extremely powerless because its markets have changed dramatically. It will be tough quarters ahead for GE. Chinese state enterprises own the markets GE is participating in right now. Always remember that when China brings funds, Chinese companies do the jobs with Chinese machinery and technologies. When that happens, someone has to win and some will of course lose.

Even the challenges IBM has faced recently can be attributed to China. If the global economy is expanding and some of the finest Western companies are experiencing decreasing revenues, it simply means that someone is taking market share from them. China is indeed that someone. The wins are everywhere including in supercomputing.

Overall, China now leads the supercomputing race with 202 computers to the US’ 144. China also leads the US in aggregate performance. China’s supercomputers represent 35.4 percent of the Top500’s flops, while the US trails with 29.6 percent. With an anti-science regime in charge of the government, America will only continue to see its technological lead decline.

When I read that Qualcomm is investing millions of dollars in China, I smiled.

“This group of innovative companies focuses on AI, IoT and other areas. We strive to help these companies make their ideas and creativity a reality, by providing financial, technology and business support. Qualcomm Ventures will continue to enable innovation among startups in the frontier tech areas, and help grow the entire industry,” Quinn Li, VP and global head of Qualcomm Ventures, said in a statement.

Simply, from Qualcomm to Apple, Google to IBM, everyone has seen that the future belongs to China. It is obvious and there is nothing within view that can change that trajectory. China has advanced so much in manufacturing that no one even wants to try anymore. To try, you simply have to pay Chinese to come and open a branch office in your locality as the state of Wisconsin USA is doing.

Gov. Scott Walker (R) and Foxconn Technology Group Chairman Terry Gou will sign a final agreement Nov. 10 granting the electronics giant $3 billion in tax incentives for a massive manufacturing campus in southeastern Wisconsin.

Yes, an American state is offering $3 billion tax incentives to a Chinese firm. That is the story these days: China is coming and it has its own terms. You either comply or another nation takes the opportunity. And what they are doing is working as they continue to rack up billionaires. From Wall Street Journal:

The number of  billionaires in Asia surpassed that of the United States for the first time last year, according to a report by UBS and PricewaterhouseCoopers. The number of Asian billionaires grew by 23% last year, compared to 5% in the US, and half of those billionaires were Chinese.

According to Fortune Magazine, “on average, a new billionaire is minted there every other day” in Asia. That Asia is primarily driven by China. China is winning and there are many reasons why that win will continue:

• China has a working leadership that gets things done. When they want to execute on a project, China mobilizes its citizens to get that job done
• China is winning on trade. When you win economically, good things happen. As they turn out great empires like Alibaba, Tencent and Huawei, the strength of China will widen. Forget that Chinese government plans to take “equities” in some of these digital companies. That is also why it is China – a government takes equity in a private company so that it can be part of the company’s strategic decision making.

On top of all the external controls, Beijing is also considering taking a stake in some of China’s largest internet companies, according to the Wall Street Journal. Planting a flag in those firms would likely give the Chinese government a more absolute role in corporate decision-making.

• China is doing a lot in the technology space. Some of the most fascinating technology companies of the future will come from China. The resources they have will give them an edge.

All Together

My recommendation for Nigeria is to push towards a stronger relationship with China. We need to be thinking of the state of the world in 30-50 years and how China is going to be making most calls. A man that gives cash is always at better positions to one that gives credits. China comes with cheque while the West comes with forms to apply for credits. You can accuse China on whatever you want to accuse it, but the fact is this: it is not freezing your brain to agree to its terms. If a Chinese company had come to Nigeria with a condition that it would not pay tax for years, many people will complain. But Wisconsin State, USA did just that. Brazil has been doing that regularly, attracting Chinese firms who use Brazil to serve Latin America. We need to have a real policy to understand China.

I do believe that Nigeria can begin that process by making efforts to structure its scholarships (NDIC, NITDA, NCC, etc) to include Chinese universities, not just American and European ones.  And those scholarships cannot just be for technology and engineering, but also policy. When we understand China, it will be easier for us to do business better with China.