I see the fusion of blockchain and cryptocurrency from two angles and in both, Nigeria can play  major roles in West Africa if not the whole continental Africa. First, Nigeria can become a trillion dollar economy by making Lagos or any of the major cities the hub for digital currency/blockchain innovations. Nigeria needs sandboxes for testing models for digital currency and blockchain across industrial sectors including banking, insurance, real estate and more.

The Central Bank of Nigeria needs to put smart regulations for cryptocurrency and blockchain and make Nigeria the preferred destinations for innovations in these areas. Globally, the plan to stifle the adoption of these emerging technologies is not a smart policy. There is no technology that rises the way blockchain has done that vanishes without impacts.

In less than a decade, Bitcoin and blockchain are now household names. They are for real. Yet, that does not mean the former is safe. We must stay ahead and lead Africa, at least, and make our country the centerpiece of the digital future.

Secondly, why I may not believe in Bitcoin, I have so much confidence in the durability and sustainability of blockchain.  Since the leading nations like U.S. and Germany have refused to regulate these new technologies, Nigeria has an opportunity to lead and enjoy the benefits inherent in them. Whether the world likes it or now, Bitcoin or its incarnate under the architecture of blockchain is certain to be part of future commerce. The earlier we understand that and make it legal, the better.

According to the Bloomberg, it seems the moment is emerging. Simply, Nigeria’s Central Bank cannot ignore digital currencies. The best strategy for us will be to issue our own digital currency and tie it to the value of the Naira.

The world’s central banks can’t ignore the growth in cryptocurrencies and may at some point have to consider whether it makes sense for them to issue their own digital currencies, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

“Whether or not a central bank should provide a digital alternative to cash is most pressing in countries, such as Sweden, where cash usage is rapidly declining,” the BIS said in its quarterly review. “But all central banks may eventually have to decide whether issuing retail or wholesale CBCCs makes sense in their own context.”

In making these decisions, institutions will need to take into account of not only privacy issues and efficiency gains in payment systems, but also potential economic, financial and monetary policy repercussions, according to the BIS.

The Big Tech Utilities

Many people like Bitcoin but to use it is still hard. I expect the ICT utilities like Google and Facebook to simplify it. Google is marching on that path with its payment API update which can in theory “accept” Bitcoin.

According to Gaundry, the new functionality that enables bitcoin payments is meant for accepting future payment methods that don’t fall under the official list of methods. So, in theory, the API could support any currency as long as it has a three-letter code. Talk about competing currencies; merchants can potentially accept any digital currency under the sun. By using bitcoin as an example for how this new utility works, though, Gaundry — intentionally or not — has suggested that the future might already be here.

We do not need Bitcoin but Nigeria needs a digital currency tied to the Naira that will enable the efficient functioning of the blockchain infrastructure which I expect to evolve in coming years in the nation. If the Central Bank blesses such a plan, we will experience a virtuoso innovation system in redesigning the architecture of some of our industrial sectors and make them more efficient even while being cost-efficient. As I noted in my entry on Blockchain Africa, blockchain has a promise for Africa. Nigeria just have to find a way to lead in that promise atleast in West Africa where its impact is huge.

Blockchain can be deployed in agricultural value chain, insurance, pharmaceutical supplies, peer-to-peer trading and lending, cross-border commerce, banking and other sectors in the continent. This underlining technology that supports Bitcoin, the crypto-currency, offers many capabilities to power new forms of business models owing to its consensus-driven decision architecture and trust networks. Blockchain delivers reliable, quality and verifiable data which enables assured digital identity during transactions. Bankymoon, a blockchain-based smart metering solution provider for power and utility grids, and BitPesa, a startup that enables trading on digital currency, are examples of the applications of blockchain to businesses. Another company, EnLedger, uses blockchain to combat fake drugs besides other applications like energy, law and land management. Circle, a startup funded by Goldman Sachs uses blockchain to make international remittance done at zero cost to the customers

All Together

The reason why we need leadership from the CBN is that without its ratification, the investing community will not support most of the blockchain-based projects in Nigeria. The reason is simple: you can build a blockchain-based remittance and CBN can ban it from being connected to our financial system. So, a regulation is needed for all the stakeholders to have clarity on the way forward. That will help unlock opportunities in the ecosystem.

Nigeria’s GTBank key enabler which has helped it to run efficiently delivering industry-leading 40.2% cost-to-income ratio (CIR) will anchor its scalable advantage into the digital domain. At this low CIR number, the bank is strategically positioned  to lead the new ecosystem of banking: digital. Simply, when the cost of doing business is cheap, a firm enjoys huge advantage in the competition. Yet, this digital banking competition is still open.

Yes, any Nigerian bank or fintech can win the digital banking competition. The key element is managing your marginal cost to be as low cost as possible, thereby making it possible to enjoy scalable advantage. Once that is done, other benefits will fall in line. If the marginal cost does not tend to zero, the fintech or bank will struggle to enjoy a huge scalable advantage that will deliver scale within the unbounded distributed internet channels.

Internet makes it easy to have low marginal cost, a major contributor on top of the broad ICT productivity gains we already enjoy on our businesses. With the low marginal cost, digital products do better. This ability to scale massively on internet via possibly zero cost is the reason why blockchain poses a threat to the banking industry. Blockchain technology can attain that zero marginal cost thereby moving customers to blockchain-based platforms. The key competitive weapon is any technology that delivers zero or near zero marginal cost.  I recommend for Nigerian banks and our fintechs to critically examine the adoption of blockchain in their business processes.

Back to GTBank, it may be having a CIR of 40.2% but blockchain can make digital banking to deliver 5%. If that happens, you have changed the basis of competition. When that happens, you are talking of disruption.  Any bank or fintech that gets ahead will have an immense advantage. I expect these evolutions as Internet matures.

• Remittance: As internet matures and the core elements developed, the world will have one “currency” and the elements of remittance will not be needed. Besides, the transfer of funds, if necessary, can be done without fintech in the midst. We already have companies doing remittance for free between U.S. and Europe. In future, that will not be a service because technology will make Internet to get all nations and their currencies to converge.
  • Within a decade, moving money around the world will be free. It is already done. Circle which received funding from Goldman Sachs allows Americans and Europeans to move money at zero fee across the Atlantic.  And that reminds me, if you have a technical team, put efforts to see how blockchain can improve your business process and save you so much money
• Payment: In a blockchain, no one  will need a bank or fintech to facilitate payment. The buyer and seller can exchange blockchain transactions to effect deals. It is going to be an advanced mPesa where buyer pays seller through the mobile number, except that mPesa is not owned by any corporate entity
• Lending: With most frictions gone, lenders will lend to borrowers and all contracts sealed in the open general ledger of blockchain. The need for fintechs and banks will be limited.

What To Do

You must find a technology strategy to have a marginal cost as close to zero for you to win.  Blockchain may be that path today.

I am a fan of Amazon.com because Amazon works. I see how Amazon simplifies commerce through superior distribution system and efficient pricing mechanism. Amazon makes freelancers business people and supports people to earn income for things they enjoy doing on their spare time. Writers, craft-people and indeed anyone can find an opportunity to monetize a skill via the Amazon ecosystem.

(I have chosen Amazon because so far it is the only digital company that enters an emerging nation with loads of cash. In India, it is going with $5 billion. Contrast that with others that only come with enough money for sales offices.)

But I have not even thought about this particular experience captured by a Tekedia commenter:

… Africa and Nigeria in particular needs Amazon. Its not only in connecting small businesses with buyers, the Internet space will also thrive. Think about lots of bloggers like me that are struggling. On my website, I recommend books but I can’t find a good affiliate program to sell and earn commission on those books.
There are bloggers that writes about phones, laptops, fashion, ceramics, arts, but they are not thriving because they cannot really make money from what they do.
With Amazon and it’s Affiliate Program, a lot of value will be created both for the original sellers and the people writing about them.

Yes, Amazon can unlock value in the blogging community. The Amazon we have today is the spending Amazon, we need to have the making-money Amazon where Nigerians can operate shops on Amazon and make money. I have noted many ways Amazon will support and improve the African economy if it makes here with the same bravado it unleashes in U.S.

Amazon, if it comes to Africa, will invest in logistics which small businesses can use to improve e-commerce. Amazon will become the modern postal systems in Africa. In Nigeria, where none practically exists, Amazon will build one, for itself as first customer, and then open it up to enterprises to use in order to support its business. Most of the Amazon fulfillment centers in America are used by Amazon sellers. Africa needs that.

Amazon, if its makes it into Africa, will bring efficiency in the food delivery system. It will invest in preservation and storage of food, making sure that waste is reduced. Amazon is vertically and horizontally integrated and understands the meatspace more than any of the present operating peers in Africa. It will find a way to source local food items in local farms and will touch the lives of farmers. The vision of Whole Foods will be the one for Africa.

A content creator, unlike Facebook, Google and others that aggregate and feed on others, Amazon will invest in local contents for Amazon. You will see it build up Amazon Prime Africa with local contents that will give jobs to artistes and others. Instead of asking you to do it, Amazon will do it with you, providing the money.

Amazon will massively put money in local carpenters, apparel makers, etc to make sure they can produce enough to meet the demand in its ecosystem. It will lend money as it does in U.S. to those doing well.

Above all, Amazon will make sure that Africa intra-trade works. We rarely trade among ourselves because our trade routes are still linked to the colonial masters that built them. Amazon will provide a digital trade route that will decouple us from those colonial routes and offer a true emancipation.

The question is this – who can get Amazon, an evolving important company in the 21st century with increasing deflationary power in the U.S. economy to think Africa. It is the real deal because of its mantra of big and bold vision. Amazon may even build new airports across African cities to make sure its businesses work. Sure, you may say Amazon will dominate but the good news is that with its ecosystem business, it can only succeed when the locals are succeeding. That is why it is different.

I see a future, if Amazon makes it into Africa, for Amazon Africa virtual  wallet to become the single African currency, because if everyone trades on Amazon, we can simply use its wallet to settle obligations across borders. This will work because Amazon is both a meatspace and cyberspace business, unlike any other.

The Aba Shoe Industry

Today, I want to note that Amazon will solve the Aba Shoe sector mess. We have not been able to grow that sector for decades. Amazon could help to unlock it, by taking it global. The same can be said of the leather industry in Kano, arts in Osogho, and other crafts across the nation. Specifically, these are some things Amazon can do to fix Aba shoe industry mess:

• Support some shoe designers and get them to produce under a unique label. You can call it the Amazon NG label
• Amazon will provide a shared infrastructure at scale to make it easier for makers and designers to have access to tools and equipment they need to design and make shoes
• If Amazon NG controls some of the brand rights, it will support the shoe makers to expand capacity in production. The firm will invest to boost capacity for the designers so that they can produce more shoes and leather materials
• Amazon will help the shoe makers improve quality so that the shoes can be sold internationally
• Amazon  will lead a globally structured advertising, using the Aba Innovations (Aba needs a city brand which has to be nurtured)
• Amazon is international with experience in the luxury and non-luxury leather materials. It will market the shoes globally
• Amazon will hire global anchors that can help make the message of Aba Innovations powerful around the world.

All Together

As I noted earlier this week that Amazon has a global ambition. Nigeria can be part of that global expansion plan: we have the population and we love to shop. Now is the time for the Nigerian government to send a letter of invitation to Jeff Bezos, the CEO of Amazon, and tell him that we are waiting for the firm. Jeff may consider that request and make it to Nigeria. Amazon is as important as Shell, Mobil, and GE in the future Nigerian economy, if not more catalytic.  Now that we are transitioning our economy, through diversification out of minerals and hydrocarbon, to a knowledge-based one, Amazon can play a critical role through commerce.

Yes, Amazon will unlock the value in ecommerce and make multitudes of merchants in Nigeria by fixing the weakest link we have today in ecommerce: logistics.  Nigeria has no strategy to fix this weak point, and without the resolution through a functioning postal service, the promise of ecommerce will not be possible. A company with capacity can support our ecommerce with capital and take our merchants global.  Amazon has that pedigree.