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Kalshi’s Rapid Valuation Surge and the Emerging Prediction Market Duopoly

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

Prediction markets—platforms where users bet on real-world outcomes like elections, sports, or economic events—have exploded in popularity since the 2024 U.S. presidential race.

What started as niche tools for gauging sentiment are now seen as scalable infrastructure for event-based trading, blending elements of betting, forecasting, and financial derivatives.

At the center of this boom are two dominant players: Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated U.S.-based exchange, and Polymarket, a blockchain-native platform that’s pushing for broader U.S. access.

Recent funding rounds have propelled their combined private valuations above $25 billion, signaling investor confidence in a concentrated “duopoly” where these two platforms capture the lion’s share of liquidity and activity, rather than a fragmented field of dozens of startups.

Kalshi’s Valuation Trajectory From $5B to $11B in Weeks

Kalshi’s growth has been meteoric. Just last week, the company closed a $1 billion funding round led by Sequoia Capital and Alphabet’s CapitalG, valuing it at $11 billion—more than double its $5 billion mark from an October 2025 Series D round that raised over $300 million from backers including Andreessen Horowitz and Paradigm.

This brings Kalshi’s total funding to roughly $1.6 billion. Post-election volume surge; expanded to sports betting. Hit $50B annualized volume; global expansion to 140+ countries. Record $1.3B quarterly inflows; 60% market share in volumes.

This “doubling in weeks” reflects over $1.3 billion in fresh capital committed to Kalshi this quarter alone, driven by its pivot from politics to high-volume categories like sports like NFL outcomes and crypto events.

Open interest (OI) now stands at $320 million, nearing 2024 election peaks, with November on track for record volumes exceeding $7 billion industry-wide.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket

Investors aren’t spreading bets across the sector—they’re doubling down on Kalshi and Polymarket as the “default venues” for event risk trading.

Polymarket, which runs on Polygon’s blockchain with USDC settlements, is reportedly negotiating a new round at $12-15 billion, up from $9 billion in an October 2025 deal backed by up to $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE, owner of the NYSE).

This would push the duo’s combined valuation past $25 billion, a concentration unseen in recent crypto/fintech cycles like NFTs or AI startups. CFTC greenlight for U.S. via licensed venue; $259M weekly volume.

POLY token airdrop hype; 40% market share. Deep liquidity on just two platforms will dominate, much like DraftKings and FanDuel in sports betting. Kalshi holds ~60% volume share, while Polymarket’s on-chain data shows ~40%, with OI at $300 million.

Together, they’ve captured over $7 billion in volume since September, outpacing rivals. Kalshi’s CFTC license provides a “moat” for U.S. users, enabling fiat-based trading without crypto volatility. Polymarket’s U.S. re-entry via a derivatives venue adds legitimacy, with ICE integration potentially feeding data into Wall Street terminals.

Post-2024 election, volumes have 3x’d. Kalshi hit top of Apple’s Finance app charts with 1.3 million users; Polymarket’s decentralized model allows instant market creation hundreds live vs. Kalshi’s 10+. Sports now rivals politics as the top category.

Polymarket’s upcoming POLY token and airdrop inject crypto upside. Kalshi’s Robinhood partnership targets retail, while both use central limit order books (CLOBs) for better liquidity.

These aren’t just bets—they’re sentiment oracles for hedging (e.g., election impacts on stocks). Bank of America calls them “untaxed gambling,” but volumes suggest institutional interest.

Fiat/KYC focus; strong in U.S. sports/politics; resolution via third-party sources for nuance. Slower market launches, higher fees critics note wide spreads.

Polymarket: On-chain, global access; UMA Oracle for resolutions censorship-resistant but controversial. Zero fees, fast creation. U.S. restrictions until recently.

Both emphasize professional market makers, CLOBs, and similar categories. The battle shifts to distribution—Kalshi via apps like Robinhood, Polymarket via X partnerships and crypto wallets.

Critics argue prediction markets erode retail capital with poor odds, and resolutions remain contentious. Regulatory scrutiny could intensify, especially on “gambling” labels. Yet, with clearer paths and $25B+ in backing, the duopoly looks locked in.

If volumes hit $10B+ monthly, expect IPOs or tokens by 2026, reshaping how we price uncertainty. As one investor noted, they’ve “created a new market out of thin air.”

China’s Top Economic Planner Flags Bubble Risk in Humanoid Robotics Sector Amid National Growth Push

By
Samuel Nwite
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1

China’s leading economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), has issued a rare note of public caution regarding the rapidly escalating investment in the domestic humanoid robotics sector, warning that a speculative bubble may be brewing.

NDRC spokesperson Li Chao delivered the alert on Thursday, emphasizing that China’s humanoid robotics industry must find a delicate balance between “the speed of growth against the risk of bubbles,” particularly as more than 150 humanoid robotics companies, over half of which are startups or entrants from other industries, flood the market with highly similar models despite a scarcity of proven mass use cases.

While the NDRC seeks to establish better market entry and exit mechanisms and consolidate R&D resources to prevent this overcapacity, leading domestic companies like UBTech Robotics are simultaneously demonstrating significant technological commercialization that both fuels the investment frenzy and provides crucial validation for Beijing’s national strategy.

UBTech’s Industrial and Technological Milestones

UBTech, a Shenzhen-based company and one of the few publicly listed pure-play humanoid robot firms globally, has been at the forefront of translating academic ambition into industrial reality, focusing on three major scenarios: industrial manufacturing, commercial services, and household companionship.

The company has successfully executed a closed-loop commercial cycle from R&D to mass delivery and iterative improvement, providing the industry with a replicable model for scaled deployment. Its key achievements include:

  • Mass Delivery and Industrial Adoption: UBTech has achieved the world’s first mass delivery of industrial humanoid robots with its Walker S2 series. These robots are already being deployed in real-world industrial settings, notably in automotive manufacturing—collaborating with major players like BYD, Geely Auto, and FAW-Volkswagen—as well as in smart factories, intelligent logistics, and data collection centers. The company has accumulated orders exceeding 800 million yuan (approximately $112 million), with significant contracts including a 159 million yuan order to deploy Walker S2 units at a data collection center in Zigong.
  • Autonomous Operational Capability: The Walker S2 is distinguished as the world’s first industrial humanoid robot integrated with Co-Agent, UBTech’s proprietary intelligent agent system. This system grants the robot closed-loop operational capabilities, allowing for intention understanding, task planning, tool usage, and autonomous anomaly detection. Furthermore, the company successfully unveiled the Walker S2 model as the world’s first humanoid robot capable of autonomously replacing its own batteries, potentially enabling continuous, 24-hour operation on the factory floor without human assistance.
  • Strategic Government Contracts: Expanding beyond traditional manufacturing, UBTech has secured a substantial contract valued at $37 million (USD) to trial its Walker robots at a major border crossing near Vietnam. In alignment with Beijing’s push to integrate advanced robotics into public services, these humanoids will assist with border management duties, traveler guidance, and logistics, showcasing their utility in high-stakes public service and security environments.

This intense drive toward embodied intelligence—the technology behind humanoid robotics—is viewed by the Chinese government as a national priority and one of the six key industries for future economic growth through 2030.

While NDRC spokesperson Li Chao rightly cautions that large-scale, widespread adoption by households or general factories has yet to materialize, the rapid technological breakthroughs and multi-million-dollar industrial contracts secured by companies like UBTech underscore the significant momentum and the high stakes involved in China’s race to lead the global robotics industry.

How Sky’s Halo Is a Business Lesson in Balancing Demographic Appeal

By
TI Partners
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0

Aiming a product or a service at a given demographic is tough. Get it right, and you can have a lifelong fanbase. Get it wrong, and the backlash can be immense. So how do companies navigate this most tricky of situations in the digital era, and does demographic even matter anymore in the age of digital solutions?

Sky’s Halo Service

After three days in mid-November, broadcasting giant Sky decided to axe its new female-focused TikTok channel. The backlash to it had been extremely negative, with many branding it patronising and sexist. One commentator even described it as  “infantilising” and said it put back women’s sport years. Sky’s original aim had been to create an “inclusive, dedicated platform for women to enjoy and explore content from all sports, while amplifying female voices and perspectives.”

The company did apologise, saying that they “didn’t get it right”. They then added, “we’re learning and remain as committed as ever to creating spaces where fans feel included and inspired.” However, by then, the damage was done, and the social media parodies were out.

Getting Demographics Right

While Sky’s channel was condescending and a huge blunder, getting demographics right is always a tricky issue. Aiming a product at a particular niche is always tough, as you are generally grouping many individuals by a broad common thread.

One sector of entertainment that has worked hard to do this is the iGaming industry. When it comes to slot games, it has done this through providing extensive choice. You will find that many games by developers have similar mechanics or functions and share bonuses. Yet by changing elements, such as graphical themes, music, and difficulty levels, they can appeal to whole new audiences. This has provided everything from kawaii-style fairground themes like Fluffy Favorites slot to mythology-themed outings like Mega Zeus. Each appeals to a different demographic, but provides a similar entertainment experience.

Learning from Demographic Mistakes

The first step in demographics is defining your product or service. This involves understanding what it provides, its special features, and its unique approach. By checking this, you can consider what demographic this would appeal to. After, start to dig into analytics to see who your customers already are. It could include looking at social media statistics or website traffic. You may already have solid market data on this.

The next step is to begin conducting market research amongst this group. Ask what they’re looking for, and test different approaches. It is unlikely this is something Sky tried with the Halo channel, instead making assumptions about what consumers wanted and what would attract them. Once you have this information, you can start to break this demographic down into target personas. This increases personalization even further and can help shape your marketing efforts.

Targeting demographics has some huge advantages. It is almost accepted business practice. Yet making assumptions about what your customer wants, and how it should be presented, can lead to disaster. If you are considering it, invest time and money into quality research and avoid these mistakes.

Cybertruck’s Market Uncertainty

By
TI Partners
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0

Recent reports from various technology and automotive sources indicate that Tesla’s Cybertruck, once considered a design icon for electric pickups, is experiencing a decline in sales and an increase in public criticism. The contrast is notable, especially as some investors have shifted their attention toward more stable, income-generating assets, such as high dividend stocks, during periods of volatility in the EV sector.

The Tesla Cybertruck was initially expected to achieve strong sales, with projections of around 250,000 units per year.

However, the reality has fallen short of expectations with only an estimated 5,300 units delivered in the third quarter of 2025, representing a 63% drop from the previous year’s figures — a setback for Tesla stock performance.

Moreover, various industry trackers have reported that the used vehicle market is experiencing unusually steep depreciation. Some Cybertrucks depreciate by approximately 35% within a year, with Tesla now offering lower trade-in prices to early buyers.

Additionally, the rollout of the Cybertruck has been impacted by technical issues. A recent report indicated that the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) — on behalf of Cybertruck owners — initiated a recall for almost all Cybertrucks built before mid-2025 due to a trim panel defect that could detach while driving.

Many owners have expressed dissatisfaction with the Cybertruck’s quality, reporting issues such as malfunctioning doors, spontaneous glass cracking, and vehicles requiring multiple service calls.

Tesla has addressed some of these complaints through software updates, though questions remain as to why a vehicle starting at around $80,000 faces such quality challenges.

Secret purchases to offset expenses

Some industry sources claim that several companies controlled by Elon Musk have purchased significant numbers of Cybertrucks for internal logistics and other company operations. These purchases have been consuming a significant amount of unsold inventory.

But why would companies buy multiple units of the same vehicle unless they are attempting to downplay concerns about its quality by presenting the Cybertruck as part of their fleet? These purchases may have absorbed some of the excess stock Tesla had on hand.

Elon Musk could also use this strategy to hide disappointing sales. The more the case is examined, the more negative signals it reveals about the situation, which may explain the lengths to which Musk might go to maintain the appearance of robust performance.

Purchasing their own vehicles affects delivery figures, which in turn impact revenue and the company’s overall image, positively influencing investor sentiment and the company’s representation on stock screens.

Cybertruck’s success in the mass market remains uncertain. Experts worry that the vehicle’s unconventional design may hinder its popularity outside the U.S. Currently, the claims that Tesla purchased Cybertrucks haven’t been proven beyond observations made by outlets.

However, the combination of low sales, recalls, and the recent reports of Musk’s companies buying Cybertrucks illustrates the difficulties Tesla faces in sustaining both demand and investor confidence for one of the brand’s most ambitious vehicles to date.

Meesho Targets Valuation of Up to $5.6bn in IPO as India’s Listing Boom Accelerates

By
Samuel Nwite
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0

Meesho, the Indian e-commerce platform that built its brand by targeting value-conscious shoppers in smaller cities, is aiming for a valuation of up to 501 billion rupees ($5.6 billion) as it prepares to go public next week.

The listing marks one of the most anticipated tech market debuts of the year and reflects the momentum building in India’s public markets, where investors have been snapping up consumer-tech offerings at a pace not seen in years.

The company has set a price band of 105 to 111 rupees per share ($1.18 to $1.24) for its three-day initial public offering that opens on December 3. Anchor investors can place bids starting December 2. According to Meesho’s prospectus, shares are expected to begin trading on India’s main exchanges on December 10.

Based on Reuters calculations, the IPO could raise roughly 54 billion rupees ($604 million) at the top of the price range. Meesho plans to issue new shares worth 42.5 billion rupees, while existing shareholders Elevation Capital and Peak XV Partners will sell a combined 105.5 million shares. That is lower than the 175.7 million shares they initially planned to sell. SoftBank, one of Meesho’s largest backers, is not selling its stake in the offering.

The company intends to use proceeds from the share sale to invest in cloud infrastructure, expand its technology operations, and cover general corporate expenses.

Meesho’s listing comes during one of India’s busiest IPO cycles on record. The domestic market is widely expected to surpass the $20.5 billion raised last year, with as much as $8 billion still anticipated in the final quarter of 2025 alone. The platform now joins a growing cohort of technology-driven companies that have already tested investor appetite this year, including Groww, Lenskart, and PhysicsWallah.

The rush of listings has been supported by stable macroeconomic conditions, strong domestic liquidity, and renewed enthusiasm for consumer-facing digital businesses. The government’s decision to cut consumption and income taxes in an effort to boost household demand has also provided companies like Meesho with a more supportive environment heading into 2026.

Meesho’s bet on India’s next wave of online consumers

Founded as a platform that enables small sellers and micro-entrepreneurs to reach online shoppers, Meesho grew by focusing on middle and lower-income consumers outside major metros. This market has been largely underserved by Amazon and Walmart-owned Flipkart, which command a significant share of India’s premium online retail segment but have had a tougher time building deep penetration in the country’s smaller towns.

Meesho built its business around low prices, minimal commissions, rapid seller onboarding, and tight cost controls. That formula resonated strongly in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, where shoppers are sensitive to price and lean toward unbranded or lightly branded products. Market analysts say the company’s ability to convert these customers into repeat online buyers has been a key advantage.

By going public now, Meesho is attempting to cement its position in a segment of the e-commerce market that is expanding faster than premium online retail. Investors who have followed the company’s growth believe its lighter operating model could help it maintain margins in a market where scale is often expensive to achieve.

Why the valuation matters

The targeted valuation of 501 billion rupees is significant not only for Meesho but for India’s broader tech ecosystem. During the post-pandemic funding boom, several private companies were assigned valuations that later became difficult to justify. The market has since become far more disciplined.

A successful debut for Meesho would signal that investors are willing to reward sustainable growth, profitability, and differentiated market positioning rather than just sheer user numbers. It also reinforces the idea that Indian investors are increasingly ready to back homegrown consumer-tech platforms with large domestic user bases.

One notable feature of the offering is that Elevation Capital and Peak XV Partners are selling fewer shares than originally planned, cutting the offer from 175.7 million shares to 105.5 million. Their decision suggests confidence in Meesho’s long-term story and reduces selling pressure at the time of listing. SoftBank’s choice to hold onto its stake instead of trimming its position further strengthens that narrative.

Analysts say the combination of reduced selling and fresh capital for cloud and tech infrastructure is likely to reassure prospective investors, particularly those concerned about cash burn in Indian e-commerce.

Meesho’s challenge in a market ruled by giants

Despite its gains, Meesho continues to operate in a fiercely competitive market. Amazon and Flipkart remain deeply entrenched, and competition is intensifying across categories like fashion, personal care, and household goods. Tax cuts may be boosting consumption, but margins remain thin across the sector, and logistics costs in India have not fallen as quickly as platforms had hoped.

Even so, Meesho’s early advantage among price-driven consumers gives it a foothold that is not easy to replicate. The company’s rapid expansion into smaller markets, along with its push into cloud efficiency and tech optimization, will be key to maintaining its edge after the IPO.

Meesho’s public listing will test whether a business built on affordability, low-friction selling, and deep penetration outside India’s major metros can achieve long-term investor confidence. If the offering succeeds, it could shift how Indian e-commerce companies are valued and open the door for similar platforms to consider public markets.

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