Based on the latest data from Polymarket’s “What price will Bitcoin hit in October?” markets resolved using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute high candles from October 1 to October 31, 2025, ET timezone, the implied probabilities for key price thresholds show a bullish but nuanced sentiment.
The higher Polymarket odds for Bitcoin hitting $95K (90%) versus $130K (13%) in October 2025 imply strong belief that Bitcoin is already at or near $95K, making it a near-certain threshold, while $130K is seen as a stretch, reflecting caution about short-term upside.
Traders anticipate limited explosive gains in the next two weeks, possibly due to recent price stabilization or macroeconomic headwinds.
Higher $95K odds suggest a safer bet for “Yes” shares, but low $130K odds could offer value for risk-tolerant traders betting on a breakout. The 94% historical accuracy of Polymarket’s short-term predictions supports these odds as reliable, though crypto’s volatility introduces risk of sudden shifts.
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These are independent binary markets for each threshold—e.g., “Will BTC hit $95K or higher this month?” vs. “Will BTC hit $130K or higher this month?”—so higher thresholds naturally have lower probabilities.
As of mid-October 2025 around October 16, the “Yes” share prices which directly represent probabilities are: High confidence in surpassing this level, assuming current BTC price is well above $95K. Lower odds reflect the challenge of reaching this from current levels; earlier in the month, odds were higher at ~64%.
Is the Probability Higher for $95K Than $130K?
The odds of Bitcoin hitting $95,000 this month (90%) are substantially higher than for $130,000 (13%). This aligns with market dynamics: lower thresholds are easier to achieve, especially if BTC is already trading above $95K recent reports suggest it’s in the $100K–$120K range.
The gap highlights tempered expectations for explosive gains in the remaining ~2 weeks of October, though volumes indicate heavy interest in the $130K bet. Earlier snapshots showed more optimism for $130K like 46–64% in early October, but sentiment has cooled, possibly due to volatility or macroeconomic factors like Fed signals.
Polymarket’s historical accuracy for predictions is approximately 94% for short-term events, based on analyses of resolved markets.
This figure comes from studies of Polymarket’s track record, where the “Yes” share price representing the crowd’s predicted probability closely aligns with real-world outcomes across various event types, including crypto price movements, elections, and other binary events.
For instance, in markets like “Will Bitcoin hit $X by [date]?”, the final share price before resolution often reflects the true outcome with high fidelity, especially for shorter timeframes like days to weeks.
However, accuracy can vary: Short-term markets days to a month, like the Bitcoin $95K/$130K markets tend to be more accurate due to less uncertainty and fresher data. The 94% figure is most relevant here.
Longer-term markets months to years or those with low liquidity can see wider spreads and less precision, as sentiment shifts or new information emerges.
Crypto-specific markets are influenced by high volatility, which can reduce accuracy compared to more stable events like election outcomes. For example, Bitcoin’s rapid price swings in 2025 have caused odds to fluctuate significantly within days like $130K odds dropped from ~64% to 13% in early October.
Accuracy depends on market participation and volume. High-volume markets like the $130K market with $1.49M traded are generally more reliable than low-volume ones.
Polymarket’s crowd-sourced model benefits from diverse trader input but isn’t infallible—black swan events or low-probability outcomes can skew results. Data is drawn from Polymarket’s resolved markets and third-party analyses.
For context, related 2025 year-end markets price ~61% odds for $110K overall, dropping to 29% for $150K. If you’re betting, note these are crowd-sourced predictions with ~94% historical accuracy on short-term events, but crypto remains volatile—always DYOR.