Samsung Electronics is poised to cap off the year with its strongest quarterly profit in more than six years, riding a severe global shortage of memory chips that has sent prices soaring as customers scramble to secure components needed for artificial intelligence workloads.
The world’s largest memory chipmaker is expected to report a 160% jump in fourth-quarter operating profit, according to LSEG SmartEstimate, which aggregates forecasts from 31 analysts weighted toward those with a stronger track record. Samsung is likely to post an operating profit of 16.9 trillion won ($11.7 billion) for the October–December period, compared with 6.49 trillion won a year earlier.
If confirmed, the result would mark Samsung’s highest quarterly operating profit since the third quarter of 2018, when earnings hit a record 17.6 trillion won. Some analysts have gone further in recent weeks, lifting their estimates to above 20 trillion won as memory prices rose faster than expected late in the quarter.
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Samsung is scheduled to release preliminary estimates for revenue and operating profit on Thursday, according to Reuters.
At the heart of the surge is a sharp rebound in the memory market, driven by the rapid expansion of AI computing. As chipmakers redirect capacity toward advanced AI-related products, the supply of conventional memory has tightened just as demand has jumped across data centers, servers, PCs, and smartphones.
Prices for DDR5 DRAM, a mainstream memory chip used widely in servers and personal devices, jumped 314% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, according to market researcher TrendForce. The firm expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise another 55% to 60% in the current quarter, extending the rally that has transformed Samsung’s earnings outlook.
“As conventional DRAM prices continue to surge, Samsung — whose production capacity is largely concentrated in this segment — stands to gain relatively more from the current price upcycle,” TrendForce analyst Avril Wu said.
DDR5 DRAM is faster and more energy-efficient than its predecessor and has become increasingly important as AI workloads place heavier demands on memory performance. The strength of that segment has allowed Samsung to benefit even as competition intensifies in the most advanced AI chips.
The tightness in memory supply is not unique to Samsung. In December, Micron Technology forecast second-quarter adjusted profit at nearly double Wall Street estimates. Micron chief executive Sanjay Mehrotra said he expects memory markets to remain constrained beyond 2026, adding that in the medium term, the company expects to meet only half to two-thirds of demand from several key customers.
The profit boom represents a sharp reversal of fortunes for Samsung. Just over a year ago, chief executive Jun Young-hyun publicly apologized for disappointing earnings and operational performance after the company fell behind its cross-town rival SK Hynix in supplying high-end memory chips to Nvidia, the dominant player in AI processors.
Since then, investor sentiment has swung dramatically. Samsung shares surged 125% last year, their biggest annual percentage gain in 26 years. The stock eased 2.1% on Tuesday morning, underperforming a broader South Korean market that was down 0.2%, as investors paused after the recent rally.
Momentum picked up again last week after Jun said customers had praised the competitiveness of Samsung’s next-generation high-bandwidth memory chips, known as HBM4. Quoting customers, he said they had remarked that “Samsung is back,” comments that helped propel the stock to record highs in recent sessions.
While Jun did not name those customers, analysts said Samsung is making progress in supplying chips to Nvidia, potentially clawing back market share from SK Hynix and Micron. Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang said on Monday that the company’s next generation of chips is now in full production, adding that its Vera Rubin platform — which will incorporate HBM4 — is on track to arrive later this year.
Looking ahead, analysts expect Samsung’s operating profit to more than double in the current year to above 100 trillion won, as elevated chip prices are forecast to outweigh weaker performance in its mobile business. Memory remains Samsung’s core profit engine, but its sprawling electronics empire means the effects of the chip cycle are not uniformly positive.
Rising chip prices are squeezing margins in Samsung’s smartphone division, its second-largest source of revenue. Lee Min-hee, an analyst at BNK Investment & Securities, said he remains cautious on Samsung’s valuation, warning that higher component costs could dampen demand for PCs and smartphones. He also pointed to risks of a slowdown in AI data center spending, noting that many operators are relying increasingly on debt to finance expansion.
Samsung itself has acknowledged the strain. “As this situation is unprecedented, no company is immune to its impact,” co-CEO TM Roh, who oversees the group’s mobile, TV, and home appliance businesses, told Reuters. He said the company is working to minimize the damage, but added that the impact looks “inevitable.”
Currently, the balance of forces strongly favors Samsung’s semiconductor arm. A rare combination of tight supply, explosive AI-driven demand, and surging prices has pushed memory chips back to the center of the global tech cycle, delivering the strongest earnings rebound the company has seen since its last peak more than half a decade ago.