Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, on Monday praised a newly adopted mechanism for assessing OPEC+ members’ maximum oil production capacity, saying the framework will strengthen market stability and reward countries that continue to invest in boosting output.
OPEC+ on Sunday approved the mechanism, which will be used to calculate members’ baselines from 2027, the production reference point that determines individual output quotas. The group, which includes OPEC members and allies led by Russia, said the new system offers a clearer and more reliable way to determine the true capacity of each country.
Prince Abdulaziz described the decision as “fair and transparent,” adding that the level of technical detail behind the mechanism gives the alliance a stronger tool to manage global oil supply.
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“Now we have the most detailed, the most technical, transparent approach of how we can move forward in the future in managing the market and how to attend to production,” he said during the launch of a Saudi-Russian business forum in Riyadh.
He added that Sunday’s meeting was “probably one of the most successful days in my personal career” and expressed gratitude for Russia’s backing. The minister said the framework will “reward those who invest and those who believe there is growth,” giving an advantage to producers expanding capacity.
The new system comes after years of tension within the group over production baselines. The United Arab Emirates, which has built significant new capacity, has long pushed for higher quotas. Others, particularly some African producers, have seen capacity decline but resisted reductions in their quotas. Angola quit OPEC in 2024 following disputes about its production allocation.
As part of Sunday’s decisions, OPEC+ agreed to keep oil output unchanged for the first quarter of 2026. According to sources familiar with the talks, the evaluation of members’ maximum production capacity — crucial for the 2027 quota reset — will take place between January and September 2026.
Oil Prices Hold Firm as Geopolitical Risks Mount
Global oil prices were steady on Tuesday as traders weighed rising geopolitical tensions against a generally oversupplied market. Brent crude slipped 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $62.99 a barrel by 1017 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dipped 13 cents to $59.19. Both benchmarks gained more than 1% on Monday, with WTI nearing a two-week high.
Analysts say the price movements reflect a tug-of-war between bearish supply fundamentals and a cluster of new risks.
“The latest goings-on in the oversupplied global picture putting pressure on prices have been balanced by hits on Russian infrastructure that accelerated through the weekend, as well as bubbling tensions between U.S.-Venezuela,” said Rystad Energy’s Janiv Shah.
He added that geopolitical risk premiums had risen in recent sessions after Russian-flagged vessels were targeted.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium confirmed that oil shipments had resumed from one mooring point at its Black Sea terminal after a major Ukrainian drone strike on November 29 disrupted operations. The incident added to concerns about supply disruptions as the conflict in the region continues to intensify.
Further uncertainty entered the market after U.S. President Donald Trump declared on Saturday that “the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela” should be considered closed. The U.S. warning introduces a fresh layer of unpredictability given Venezuela’s status as a major oil producer.
Analysts are also watching developments around the Ukraine peace talks, which could influence Russian crude flows.
“Focus is also on the Ukrainian peace talks, which might result in Russia increasing its crude oil and product exports once again, although this process is likely to be protracted,” said Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates.
On the diplomatic front, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner are holding talks in Moscow on Tuesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev will also meet Witkoff, according to individuals familiar with the discussions mentioned by Reuters.
Meanwhile, Russia signaled confidence in its oil trade with India despite recent declines. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Indian journalists that the dip in India’s purchases of Russian oil may last only for “a brief period.” Moscow, he said, intends to boost supplies to New Delhi. Russia remains India’s largest oil supplier, but the South Asian nation is set to reduce imports to a three-year low this month after the U.S. sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, Moscow’s top oil producers.