By 2035, stablecoin transaction volume could rise to $719 trillion even under a baseline (organic) scenario. This conclusion is contained in a new report by the analytics firm Chainalysis. A more ambitious estimate, around $1.5 quadrillion, applies to a scenario in which additional growth drivers come into play and stablecoins become the base settlement layer for global payments.
Chainalysis forecast: the numbers
Under the baseline trajectory, adjusted stablecoin transaction volume will total $28 trillion in 2025 and reach $719 trillion by 2035 if the current pace holds. The expanded scenario allows for nearly double that figure.
If certain conditions are met, the figure could approach $1.5 quadrillion, which exceeds the current estimate of global cross-border payments, at roughly $1 quadrillion. In other words, stablecoins could eventually overtake the entire existing international payments system by volume.
What could double the forecast
Chainalysis highlights two key factors that could accelerate market growth:
- the transfer of more than $100 trillion in accumulated wealth from the baby boomer generation to younger, more “crypto-native” generations accustomed to using digital assets;
- the replacement of traditional payment infrastructure by stablecoins if they become the standard settlement layer for businesses and consumers.
Each of these factors is significant on its own, and both materializing at once is more an optimistic outlook than a guaranteed scenario.
Why the estimate looks debatable
Analysts acknowledge that this is a best-case outcome. The scale of the forecast becomes clearer when compared with familiar figures. Total cross-border payments are estimated at roughly $1 quadrillion. Remittances totaled $865 billion in 2023 and $905 billion in 2024. The total value of all global assets, including bank deposits, real estate, and cash, according to World Population Review, is estimated at around $662 trillion.
Even hitting the baseline benchmark of $719 trillion would require a sustained average annual growth rate of about 133% over an entire decade. Maintaining such momentum over such a long time horizon would be unprecedented for any financial market.
The iGaming industry has helped drive stablecoin growth
The sector is growing rapidly: the combined market capitalization of stablecoins has already topped hundreds of billions of dollars, and transaction volumes continue to rise steadily.
One of the main key drivers of transaction growth is activity on gaming platforms, including major operators licensed internationally. Online casinos were among the first to use stablecoins, and transaction volumes have been increasing year after year.
These types of payment instruments allow casinos to enter entirely new markets without relying on local payment methods. That is why virtually any online casino uses cryptocurrency in its payments to some extent. We confirmed this by analyzing a number of well-known iGaming brands. We based our review on several industry rankings, including no deposit bonuses casino Australia, which lists the biggest brands in the market. And in almost every case, we saw the option to pay with cryptocurrency. Notably, stablecoins were present there almost without exception.
Market leaders remain USDT from Tether and USDC from Circle. They dominate in liquidity and breadth of adoption in trading, decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, and cross-border settlement.
At the same time, new players are gaining ground. DAI and other algorithmic or partially collateralized solutions offer alternative mechanisms for maintaining price stability and are gradually expanding their share, attracting users seeking decentralized tools.
Large companies are developing their own plans
Corporate interest in issuing their own stablecoins is driven by pragmatic considerations: lower payment costs, faster settlement, and access to new digital financial infrastructure. Against this backdrop, PayPal, Stripe, Visa, as well as a number of banks and fintech firms, have announced or discussed such plans in recent years.
Regulators have voiced concerns
The European Central Bank warned that the growing popularity of stablecoins could reduce bank deposits and dampen lending activity. Regulators view this risk as a potential threat to the stability of the traditional financial system.
The scenario split remains open
Chainalysis’s baseline benchmark assumes volume growth to $719 trillion by 2035, whereas approaching $1.5 quadrillion is possible only if the acceleration factors materialize simultaneously and stablecoins replace traditional settlement systems at scale.