U.S. corporate insiders sold shares at a notably aggressive pace relative to buying, pushing the sell-to-buy ratio or sales-to-buy ratio to its highest level in five years.
Nearly 1,000 executives at U.S.-listed companies sold shares during the month. Only about 207 were net buyers. This resulted in a seller-to-buyer ratio of around 4.8 meaning roughly 4.8 sellers for every buyer, the highest since early 2021 around the peak before the 2022 bear market and the second-highest since the 2020 crisis period.
This aligns with bearish or cautious insider sentiment, as insiders often sell more when they perceive valuations as stretched.Context and implications: The U.S. market hit record highs in early 2026, crossing 7,000 for the first time amid an extended bull run driven by AI enthusiasm.
Register for Tekedia Mini-MBA edition 19 (Feb 9 – May 2, 2026).
Register for Tekedia AI in Business Masterclass.
Join Tekedia Capital Syndicate and co-invest in great global startups.
Register for Tekedia AI Lab.
Insiders appear to be locking in gains after multi-year rallies, amid concerns over elevated valuations, sustainability of heavy AI capital expenditures, geopolitical tensions, and potential over-optimism. Similar patterns occurred in 2021, where high selling preceded the 2022 downturn though with a lag—not an immediate crash signal.
Some analysts view this as a cautionary note rather than definitive doom, as insiders sell for personal reasons and buying remains low overall. Aggregated market-wide insider buy/sell ratios from GuruFocus show low buy/sell activity around 0.23 in early February 2026, below the 5-year average of ~0.35, reinforcing reduced optimism.
This has sparked discussion on platforms like X, with posts highlighting it as a potential warning sign amid extreme bullishness in surveys. It’s a noteworthy contrarian indicator worth monitoring, but not a standalone predictor—markets can stay elevated longer than expected.
The market has been strong overall—S&P 500 hovering around 6,900–7,000 levels amid AI enthusiasm—but several sentiment and positioning metrics suggest potential over-optimism or complacency, which contrarians view as bearish i.e., when everyone is bullish, it may be time to be cautious, and vice versa.
Bullish sentiment at 39.7% above historical average of 37.5%, neutral at 31.3%, and bearish at 29.0%. Bullish readings have stayed elevated recently hitting highs around 49.5% in mid-January, which is often a contrarian warning of excessive optimism preceding pullbacks or corrections. Historically, extreme bullishness correlates with lower forward returns.
CNN Fear & Greed Index: Hovering in the low-to-mid 40s range around 41–45 recently, dipping into “fear” territory at times but not extreme. This composite (factoring in volatility, breadth, options, etc.) has pulled back from higher greed levels earlier in the year, suggesting some cooling but still not signaling deep fear that contrarians love for buying opportunities. Readings below 25–30 often mark capitulation bottoms.
SPX put/call around 1.15–1.26 recently with total CBOE 10-day moving average near 0.86–0.88. Higher ratios above 1.0 for index indicate more protective put buying, which can be bullish contrarian (fear = potential bottom), but the current mildly elevated levels suggest hedging amid uncertainty rather than outright panic. Low ratios (below 0.7) would be more exuberant/bearish contrarian.
Other broader contrarian-flagged signals in the environment: High market concentration and complacency — Equity indices remain heavily weighted toward AI/mega-caps, with flows showing record ETF inflows and one-sided positioning per reports from BlackRock and others. This echoes past episodes of capex overinvestment and euphoria, viewed as fragile.
Some strategists note global stocks trading well above moving averages, with greedy sentiment as a potential sell signal. Weakness in leading risk-on areas while broader indices hold up, hinting at underlying cracks. These indicators aren’t screaming imminent crash (markets can remain “irrational” longer than expected), but they lean toward caution in a bull run that’s stretched multi-year.
Contrarians often see high bullish sentiment, heavy inflows, and complacency as reasons to trim exposure or hunt value elsewhere. Always combine with fundamentals, economic data like jobs reports, and your risk tolerance— no single indicator is foolproof.