The phrase “Altseason on Hold as Capital Concentrates in BTC and ETH” refers to a recent analysis highlighting why a broad rally in altcoins non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies isn’t materializing despite Bitcoin’s recovery to around $92,000.
In crypto cycles, “altseason” typically occurs when capital rotates from BTC and ETH into riskier, higher-beta assets like mid- and small-cap tokens, leading to explosive gains. However, as of December 2025, this rotation isn’t happening—instead, liquidity is pooling in the majors amid economic uncertainty and selective risk-taking.
Steady at 59.11% of the total market cap among top 125 coins. This elevated level shows BTC absorbing most inflows, leaving little for alts. Historically, altseason kicks off when BTC dominance drops below 55-50%, signaling capital outflow.
Ethereum dominance is Hovering at 12.80% tight range: 12.78-12.81%. ETH is seeing rare simultaneous retail and institutional inflows alongside BTC, per Wintermute’s update, but it’s not yet outperforming BTC enough to trigger downstream flows.
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BTC endured a $4,000 intraday drop last Friday, sparking $2B in liquidations, but it rebounded without broader selling. Open interest is declining, and basis rates are compressed—signs of consolidation, not capitulation.
Institutional players via ETFs and retail are favoring “reputable” assets. Spot BTC ETFs now hold over $120B AUM, with minimal spillover to alts. ETH is holding $3,000+ support, but without a confirmed BTC bottom, alts lack momentum.
This setup reflects a “flight to quality”: Traders prefer delta-neutral strategies over leveraged alt bets, delaying broad rallies.
Why Altseason Is Delayed
Unlike past cycles like in 2017-2018, where BTC dom peaked at 70% before alt surges, institutions are stacking BTC as a hedge. ETF approvals— 130+ alt filings, 30+ greenlit are rebuilding flows, but they’re starting with majors.
Liquidity fragmentation—11M+ tokens competing—dilutes pumps; thin order books mean even good news doesn’t move prices like in 2021. Ongoing uncertainty keeps risk appetite low. Alts need BTC stabilization above key resistance and ETH breaking $5K for real ignition.
Current ALT/BTC ratio near 0.25 signals capitulation, not reversal—similar to 2019’s 450-day bleed. $3B monthly token unlocks are eroding prices by ~18% post-event. Without $1B+ weekly alt ETF inflows to absorb this, dominance could crash below 10%, leaving only BTC/ETH viable.
Many see altseason as “delayed, not canceled,” but warn of a tougher cycle requiring selective picks over blanket bets. Some argue it’s quietly underway in fragments, but not the euphoric blow-off top yet. BTC holds $90K support; ETH/BTC pair strengthens (e.g., ETH >$3,500).
A BTC dom rejection from its macro downtrend could dump it to 55%, sparking rotation. Late 2025/early 2026 if macro clears (e.g., QE resumption) and alt ETFs hit $50B inflows. ETH upgrades or regulatory wins could lead, pulling in large-caps first, then mid-caps.
If unlocks outpace adoption, alts enter a “long tail” extinction—97% memecoins already dead this year. Focus on 100-500 viable projects with real utility. The market’s in a majors-led consolidation phase, prioritizing stability over speculation. Altseason isn’t dead—it’s waiting for the liquidity dam to break.
Every major altseason began only after BTC dom fell decisively below 55–50%. We are currently at 59.1% and have not even tested 55% yet. We are in the exact same setup as late 2020 / early 2021 — BTC dominance stuck 58–62% for months, alts bleeding vs BTC, institutions buying only BTC/ETH.
In 2021, the dam finally broke in February–March when BTC dom cracked below 55% and stayed there. Most likely path forward based purely on historical precedent: Another 1–4 months of alt underperformance and capitulation
Real altseason ignition only after BTC dominance breaks and holds below 54–55%. When it starts, it will be violent and fast (2021-style 3–6 month window of 10–100x in quality mid-caps). Until BTC dominance decisively cracks, history says altseason remains on hold — exactly as the market is behaving right now.