A new World Trade Organization (WTO) report paints a two-sided picture of the global economy — one powered by artificial intelligence exports and another bracing for the chill of rising tariffs.
The trade body’s latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, released Tuesday, shows that world trade has found new life in 2025, driven largely by booming demand for AI-related products. But that momentum, the WTO warns, may be short-lived. The organization expects global trade to grow 2.4% this year, more than double its earlier forecast, only to drop sharply to 0.5% in 2026 once the full weight of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff regime takes hold.
It’s a rare case of technological optimism clashing head-on with protectionist policy.
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The Tariff Trap
The WTO describes 2025 as a year of “front-loaded trade” — a global scramble to ship goods before tariffs bite. The catalyst was Trump’s sweeping tariff expansion in April, which sent shockwaves through supply chains from London to Seoul. Even the U.K., a U.S. ally, has not escaped, with a 10% baseline tariff now slapped on its exports to American markets.
Importers rushed to beat deadlines as a result, giving global trade a temporary boost of 4.9% in the first half of the year. But WTO economists caution that the rush is unsustainable. When tariffs stabilize, they say, the world may face the quiet aftermath of overstocked warehouses and slowing demand.
AI Keeps the Engines Running
The irony, however, is that the same technological forces reshaping economies — AI, automation, and advanced computing — are also propping up trade. According to the WTO, nearly half of the growth in global trade this year has come from AI-related goods like semiconductors, servers, and telecom components.
“Trade growth spanned the digital value chain, from raw silicon and specialty gases to devices powering cloud platforms and AI applications,” the report notes.
Asia, led by China, South Korea, and Taiwan, has been the epicenter of this boom, accounting for nearly two-thirds of all AI-related export growth. The United States, meanwhile, has driven about one-fifth, reflecting the fierce competition between Washington and Beijing for AI supremacy.
That rivalry is increasingly shaping trade patterns. As the U.S. imposes tariffs on Chinese goods, companies have redirected production to Southeast Asia, helping Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia emerge as key players in the AI supply chain.
Cracks Beneath the Surface
Still, the WTO’s tone is far from celebratory. Behind the data lies a fragile recovery, propped up by temporary demand and a narrow slice of high-tech exports. Broader trade in goods and services remains weak, and signs of fatigue are already emerging in major economies.
Services trade, covering areas such as logistics, finance, and travel, is projected to slow from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025, before edging down further to 4.4% in 2026. Manufacturing confidence has dipped across Europe and North America, while consumers face stagnant wages and rising prices.
“The global economy is cooling, and trade growth will cool with it,” the WTO warns.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala sought to strike a balance between realism and resolve. She credited “measured responses” by countries and the explosive potential of AI for helping trade stay afloat this year, but warned against complacency.
“Trade resilience in 2025 is thanks in no small part to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system. Yet complacency is not an option,” she said.
In her view, the world is at an inflection point — between a new era of digital-led globalization and a retreat into trade nationalism.
“Today’s disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action,” she said. “Nations must reimagine trade and lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere.”
The bottom line of the WTO’s message is that technology may be fueling trade, but politics is steering it. The world’s ports are humming again, powered by shipments of chips and servers. Yet behind that hum lies a note of uncertainty — one that could soon echo across the global economy once the tariff surge settles and the AI boom cools.