VanEck, a prominent asset manager with significant exposure to digital assets, recently analyzed the sharp Bitcoin (BTC) price decline in mid-November 2025.
In their “Mid-November 2025 Bitcoin Chain Check” report, they attribute the selloff primarily to mid-cycle holders—traders who entered positions during previous market downturns and are now rotating out amid broader risk aversion—rather than long-term “whales” or institutional capitulation.
This aligns closely with the idea of “US traders” driving the pressure, as U.S.-based futures markets (e.g., CME, where much of the leverage is concentrated) experienced the most dramatic liquidations.
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Coins aged 3–5 years saw a 32% drop in supply over the past two years, as these holders often speculative traders from prior cycles offload during weakness. In contrast, coins unmoved for 5+ years remain stable, with the cohort even growing by ~278,000 BTC, signaling long-term conviction.
The downturn accelerated after President Trump’s October 10, 2025, X post announcing potential 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. This sparked a U.S. dollar surge, risk-off sentiment, and ~$19 billion in crypto futures liquidations within hours—mostly from over-leveraged U.S. traders.
Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest plummeted 20% in BTC terms since October and 19% in a single 12-hour spike. Funding rates hit lows not seen since late 2023, indicating deeply oversold conditions and reduced speculation.
Bitcoin has fallen ~31% from its October 6, 2025, all-time high of $126,080, trading around $86,000–$88,500 as of late November 2025. VanEck notes this mirrors post-halving bear phases bearish into 2026 and highlights external factors like quantum encryption risks and privacy concerns favoring alternatives like Zcash.
However, they see tactical buying opportunities emerging, with some cohorts turning net buyers and ETP outflows 49,300 BTC since October potentially bottoming out. VanEck views this as a “healthy reset” rather than a structural breakdown, advising dollar-cost averaging into bear markets.
While U.S. traders’ leverage amplified the drop, global spot markets were less affected, underscoring the role of domestic futures activity.
The 20% plunge in Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest (OI) and the collapse in funding rates to 2023 lows signal a washout of speculative excess, primarily from mid-cycle 3–5 year holders who reduced supply by 32% over two years.
This rotation—without capitulation from 5+ year “whales” whose holdings grew by ~278,000 BTC—cleanses leverage, historically paving the way for rebounds. Implication: Lower volatility ahead, with spot markets less US futures-dominated showing resilience, potentially stabilizing BTC around $85,000–$90,000 as a new base.
Bitcoin ETPs saw 49,300 BTC in outflows since October 2% of AUM, but this mirrors post-halving patterns and could bottom soon, with tactical buying from select cohorts emerging. Long-term, this reinforces ETF-driven institutional adoption, insulating crypto from retail panic.
US traders’ margin calls from crypto losses have amplified selloffs in correlated assets like AI stocks like Nvidia, contributing to a $1 trillion+ wipeout in crypto market cap and influencing Wall Street reversals.
With BTC down 30%+ from its $126,000 October peak, this highlights crypto as a “leading indicator” for risk sentiment—traders using BTC as collateral for equity bets now face forced liquidations, deepening downturns.
Expect heightened volatility in US indices like Nasdaq until Fed rate cut hopes clarify, but a crypto rebound could signal broader recovery. While US futures bore the brunt ~$19B in liquidations, international spot volumes held firmer, underscoring America’s leverage-heavy influence.
This could accelerate de-globalization of crypto trading, with Asia/Europe gaining share. The selloff coincided with tariff rhetoric boosting the USD and risk aversion, but VanEck anticipates deregulation and ETF expansions—like ETH staking amendments and SOL ETF approvals—by mid-2025.
State-level moves, such as Pennsylvania’s proposed Bitcoin reserve up to 10% of $7B and Florida’s potential adoption, signal growing sovereign interest. These could drive BTC to $160,000–$180,000 by mid-2025, per historical alt-season analogs, offsetting current bearishness.
69 public companies now hold BTC up from prior cycles, with leaders like MicroStrategy adding ~128k BTC since mid-November. If BTC dips below $90,000, some may face “underwater” holdings, prompting sales—but this trend expected to hit 100+ firms in 2025 embeds crypto in balance sheets, reducing downside risk.