Corporate America Is Upbeat On Economy, But Wary Of Trump’s Policies: CNBC CFO Survey

President Donald Trump’s approval rating has been sliding, or as some see it, fluctuating, as more Americans grow uneasy about his handling of the economy, raising yet another question about whether Wall Street and Main Street are drifting apart at a moment when stocks are still coasting near record highs and corporate profits remain strong.

But the latest CNBC CFO Council Survey suggests the divide is not as sharp as it looks. The public is cooling on the president, yet corporate finance chiefs are not exactly breaking from that sentiment, even though their outlook on the broader U.S. economy remains strikingly positive.

The Q4 CNBC CFO Council Survey, conducted from December 1 to December 8 among 22 chief financial officers, shows a corporate class that still considers the economy solid despite clear signs of stress at the lower end of the income ladder. These executives see weakening labor-market conditions and stretched consumers, but they aren’t predicting a downturn. More than half of them, 59 percent, say the U.S. will avoid recession next year. And 73 percent describe themselves as optimistic about the economic outlook, a surprisingly upbeat reading given the political volatility surrounding Trump’s second year in office.

The upbeat stance extends to financial markets. Only two CFOs anticipate a stock-market correction of at least 10 percent, and none foresee a bear market ahead. Their caution lies elsewhere: most say the Dow Jones Industrial Average is unlikely to break decisively above 50,000 anytime soon, even after a strong year in which the S&P 500 has gained 16 percent. Instead, they expect stocks to remain stuck in a trading range, pausing after a long run-up.

Yet those positive economic assessments do not translate into warm reviews for Trump himself. Seventy-two percent of CFOs rated his performance in the first year of his second term as either “fair” or “poor.” Only two executives described his performance as “excellent,” while four called it “good.” That lukewarm reception stands out because the business community did secure one of its biggest priorities this year — an extension of the tax cuts — but that policy win has not lifted broader views of his leadership.

Immigration and trade policy weigh most heavily on CFO sentiment. Fourteen executives described his immigration stance as “poor” for the business environment, pointing to persistent constraints in hiring, while twenty expressed similar concerns about trade policy. Those results line up with long-running anxiety among companies that global supply chains remain fragile and that uncertainty over tariffs still disrupts planning. Seven CFOs gave the president a more favorable assessment on immigration, ranging from “excellent” to “good,” but the overall tilt remained negative.

Public polling on immigration has been mixed: recent New York Times data shows the president scoring higher on the issue than on his broader approval, while Gallup’s latest numbers point to slippage.

Inside the administration, one figure receives notably better marks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is viewed far more positively by CFOs, with 62 percent describing his performance as “good” or “excellent,” and only one executive calling it “poor.” That gap has become more pronounced as concerns build over policy direction in Trump’s second term.

The looming appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair has also made corporate finance chiefs uneasy. Trump intends to replace Jerome Powell, but 77 percent of CFOs say they do not expect a new chair to make the Fed “more effective,” a clear sign that markets and executives are unsure whether the president’s preferred pick will deliver the stability they want.

Inflation remains another sticking point. Most CFOs expect price pressures to stay above the Fed’s target into 2027, a stubborn outlook that shapes their expectations for policy next year. Even with a rate cut anticipated at this week’s December FOMC meeting, CFOs do not foresee an aggressive cutting cycle in 2026. Nearly all expect only one or two cuts through the middle of next year, which aligns with current market pricing and stands far short of Trump’s calls for deeper easing.

Stephen Miran, recently added to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and a voting FOMC member, has been pushing for outsized reductions, while National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett — widely seen as Trump’s leading candidate for Fed chair — recently argued for a 25-basis-point cut this week.

The broader backdrop is a country feeling real economic divides. Lower-income households continue to absorb the brunt of inflation, and consumer spending is starting to show signs of fatigue. CFOs themselves say consumer demand is now the single biggest risk to their businesses. It may be the one point where Wall Street confidence and public anxiety converge: the recovery is intact, but the floor beneath it feels thinner.

For Trump, the political cost is growing. Approval ratings tend to move with how Americans feel about their wallet, and the pressure on household budgets has intensified. Even with markets holding near records, the mood has shifted. The CFO survey captures that discomfort from inside the corporate sector — not outright disapproval, but a cooling that mirrors what is taking place across the electorate.

What emerges is a portrait of an economy that remains resilient enough to dodge recession, a market that remains buoyant, and a business community still largely confident in growth. Yet the president who presides over that landscape is struggling to capitalize on it, held back by policy decisions that industries continue to view as disruptive at a time when stability may matter more than ever.