MicroStrategy (MSTR), the business intelligence firm led by Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor, is at risk of being excluded from major equity benchmarks like the Nasdaq 100 and MSCI USA indexes.
This development stems from a sharp decline in the company’s stock price, triggered by a broader cryptocurrency market crash, and increased scrutiny on firms with heavy exposure to digital assets.
Importantly, this does not involve delisting from the Nasdaq exchange itself—MicroStrategy remains fully listed and trading—but rather removal from these influential indexes, which could have cascading effects on investor demand.
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MicroStrategy’s shares have plummeted over 57-60% in the past six months, erasing much of the premium investors once paid for its Bitcoin holdings. The stock’s volatility is closely tied to Bitcoin’s price, which has fallen from an all-time high of around $126,000 to below $81,000.
This drop has caused MicroStrategy to fall below the minimum market capitalization and liquidity thresholds required for Nasdaq 100 inclusion. The company holds 649,870 BTC valued at a 12.72% unrealized gain as of November 16, 2025, acquired through aggressive debt and equity raises.
Recent purchases include 8,178 BTC for $835.6 million. While Saylor views this as a long-term strength, index providers are reassessing firms where over 50% of assets derive from cryptocurrencies.
Both Nasdaq and MSCI are evaluating eligibility criteria amid market changes. A decision from MSCI is expected by January 15, 2026. Previously, there was optimism about MicroStrategy joining the S&P 500, but the crypto downturn has reversed that momentum.
Exclusion from these indexes would force passive funds like ETFs and mutual funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 or MSCI USA to sell their holdings, leading to significant outflows. JPMorgan analysts estimate. Up to $2.8 billion in passive fund outflows, based on nearly $9 billion in current market exposure tied to these benchmarks.
If Nasdaq 100 and other providers (e.g., MSCI World) follow suit, total outflows could reach $8-9 billion—roughly 15% of MicroStrategy’s $59 billion market cap. This could further pressure liquidity, raise borrowing costs, and dampen investor sentiment, signaling concerns over the company’s reliance on Bitcoin volatility.
On the flip side, Saylor has emphasized MicroStrategy’s resilience, positioning it as both a software business and a “Bitcoin treasury company.” Analysts highlighted reduced appeal for passive investors and long-term demand risks, noting index inclusion has historically boosted MicroStrategy’s valuation.
Monness, Crespi, Hardt recently upgraded MSTR from Sell to Neutral, citing a diminished premium over its Bitcoin NAV net asset value. Saylor continues to advocate for regulatory clarity to support crypto-exposed firms. The news coincides with Bitcoin’s slump, amplifying risks for MicroStrategy as a de facto Bitcoin proxy.
However, removal wouldn’t directly impact Bitcoin’s price unless it triggers panic selling. MicroStrategy’s situation remains fluid, with the January MSCI decision as a key watchpoint.
Since August 2020, when Strategy first adopted BTC as its primary holding, Saylor’s strategy has evolved from simple accumulation to a sophisticated “Bitcoin refinery” model—leveraging debt, equity, and innovative securities to amplify BTC exposure while generating yield for investors.
This isn’t passive holding; it’s active financial engineering designed to create shareholder value through BTC’s long-term appreciation, which Saylor projects at 30% annually over the next 20 years.
As of November 16, 2025, Strategy holds 649,870 BTC, acquired for ~$48.37 billion at an average price of $74,433 per BTC, representing about 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply and yielding 27.8% YTD in BTC terms.
Saylor’s philosophy boils down to this: In an era of fiat inflation and eroding cash value, Bitcoin is “digital gold 2.0″—a decentralized, engineered store of value that outperforms traditional assets like bonds, gold, or even the S&P 500 over time.
He argues that corporations holding cash are “losing 10-20% annually to inflation,” while BTC offers scarcity and portability, making it ideal for global capital efficiency. His approach has turned Strategy into a de facto BTC proxy, with $MSTR stock delivering ~75% average annual returns over the past five years—outpacing Bitcoin’s ~50% and far exceeding the S&P 500’s ~15%.
Saylor’s playbook is built on conviction, leverage, and innovation. Strategy buys BTC using excess cash flow from its $500 million annual software business, but primarily through capital raises.
Purchases are dollar-cost averaged (DCA) to mitigate volatility, with buys continuing regardless of price—recent examples include 8,178 BTC for $835.6 million at ~$102,171 (November 10-16, 2025) and 487 BTC for $49.9 million at ~$102,557 (November 3-9, 2025).
Saylor emphasizes “buy and hold” as the only rational long-term play, stating the firm can endure an 80-90% BTC drawdown for 4-5 years without defaulting, thanks to overcollateralization current leverage at 10-15%, trending to zero.
Even at 0% annual BTC growth, Strategy has ~80 years of runway before dividends falter; at 1.25% growth, it sustains them indefinitely. Raise low-cost capital via convertible bonds, preferred stock, and at-the-market (ATM) equity offerings, then deploy it into BTC. This creates a “self-sustaining price escalation cycle”.
BTC appreciation boosts $MSTR’s market cap, enabling more raises at favorable terms. Recent innovations include “digital credit securities” like $STRK (convertible preferred), $STRF (fixed-yield), $STRD (dividend-focused), $STRC (Stretch, variable USD yield backed by BTC), and $STRE—raising $7.7 billion in 2025 alone.
These instruments “refine” BTC into yield products, stripping volatility for fixed-income investors while passing upside to equity holders. S&P Global’s ‘B-‘ rating in October 2025 marks the first for a BTC treasury firm, validating the structure.
BTC as a $200T asset by 2045, powering AI-driven finance and replacing sovereign debt with overcollateralized digital credit. Saylor predicts BTC will surpass gold’s market cap within a decade.
Analysts at Samosa Capital argue the strategy “hurts Bitcoin’s price action” by flooding markets during peaks—~40% of holdings are now underwater after buys above $102K. Parallels to Strategy’s 2000 dot-com crash stock fell 99% fuel warnings of implosion if BTC drops below $10K.