By noon on Wednesday, the United States had officially launched its most punishing round of tariffs against Chinese goods, with an unprecedented 104% cumulative duty taking effect. It marks a dramatic escalation in what has become a volatile and ideologically charged trade war, one that economists warn could reshape global commerce for years.
U.S. President Donald Trump, defending the move as a long-overdue correction to what he described as “decades of unfair trade practices,” signed off on a last-minute 50% hike Tuesday night. That comes on top of an already existing 20% baseline duty and an additional 34% increase imposed earlier this year, bringing the net effective tariff on Chinese goods to 104%.
In an immediate and fiery response, China’s state broadcaster issued a stark warning just as the tariffs kicked in: “China will strike back and fight to the very end.” The message, broadcast in Mandarin and translated by several Chinese news outlets, reflects the growing resolve in Beijing to respond forcefully.
At a press conference shortly after the announcement, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian accused Washington of pursuing a strategy of economic intimidation.
“We have stressed more than once that pressuring or threatening China is not a right way to engage with us,” Lin said. “China will firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”
While officials stopped short of announcing concrete countermeasures, Beijing’s language was unambiguous. Experts believe retaliation is imminent and could hit the U.S. where it hurts most — not necessarily through tariffs, but via more sophisticated channels like restricting access to rare earth minerals, slashing purchases of U.S. debt, or squeezing U.S. tech firms operating in China.
“China can pull the rug out from under the U.S. economy anytime it wants. There’s no need to retaliate with tariffs, which hurts themselves. As our biggest supplier and one of our largest lenders, if they really want to hurt us, delivering a financial crisis is a knockout punch,” said Peter Schiff, chief economist at Euro Pacific Capital.
Why 104%? Trump’s Case for Economic Justice
In defending the drastic tariff, Trump described the move as an act of “economic sovereignty,” claiming that America has for too long tolerated structural trade imbalances, particularly with China.
“These countries are calling me, kissing my as*, they are dying to make a [trade] deal…” Please please sir let me make a deal, I’ll do anything, I’ll do anything, sir,” the president said on Tuesday.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed that line, suggesting on CNBC that the White House has “received inquiries from 70 countries” interested in new trade agreements — though he did not clarify whether those discussions included revisiting the current tariffs.
Trump’s key trade advisor, Peter Navarro, took an even more hardline stance, saying on Friday that tariffs are “non-negotiable” and a “necessary correction.” Navarro also dismissed calls for compromise, stating that “real negotiations begin only after the other side feels the pain.”
But business leaders and economists warn that the tariffs will do more harm than good as the pain is already being felt by American consumers, manufacturers, and global markets.
U.S. stocks plummeted Tuesday following the announcement. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.15%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.57% and the Dow Jones lost 0.84%. Apple, which is heavily reliant on China for manufacturing, saw its stock price fall sharply, losing nearly $300 billion in market capitalization over the last four sessions. Asian markets followed suit, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 falling 4% and South Korea’s Kospi entering bear market territory.
Citi, one of the world’s largest financial institutions, revised its growth forecast for China downward to 4.2% from 4.7%, citing the strain from U.S. tariffs and the growing uncertainty for exporters.
“The U.S. has consistently run annual trade surpluses in services,” Peter Schiff noted. “By Trump’s logic that means the U.S. has been cheating and ripping off other nations. Should those nations retaliate with reciprocal tariffs on U.S. services to level the playing field?”
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has also cautioned against overplaying the tariff hand. “Trade wars don’t have clean winners,” he said at an investment forum in New York last month. “We’re risking a global slowdown at a time when markets are already under stress.”
The imposition of a 104% tariff on Chinese goods has been described as “dumb” by many American business leaders, who believe it wouldn’t make Beijing budge.
“I worry that Trump has backed himself into a corner with 104% tariffs. China is going to respond with additional retaliation,” said freight expert, Craig Fuller. “This is a country that shut off their entire economy and did military-style lockdowns during COVID.”
Musk vs. Navarro: A Rift in Trump’s Circle With Underlying Message
The backlash hasn’t just come from traditional economic voices. Elon Musk, who has become an increasingly prominent figure in Trump’s orbit, lashed out publicly at Peter Navarro this week, calling the trade advisor a “moron” and “dangerously dumb.”
Musk’s comment, posted on X, reflects mounting concern among executives with global supply chains. Tesla, Apple, and other U.S. tech giants have made significant investments in China-based production over the past decade — all now at risk.
Though Musk did not explicitly condemn the tariffs, his attack on Navarro signals tension even among those who typically align with Trump’s economic vision. Musk is widely seen as a leading voice on Trump’s advisory panels on crypto and innovation policy and has had direct input on matters ranging from AI regulation to space exploration.
Apple and Others Scramble to Reroute Supply Chains
Companies are now racing to adjust. Apple, for instance, has begun shifting significant production to India, where tariffs currently stand at a more manageable 26%. According to The Wall Street Journal, nearly half of U.S. iPhone demand could soon be met by India-made devices. But the transition won’t be seamless — Apple is still deeply reliant on Chinese manufacturers for key components.
As a preemptive move, Apple ramped up shipments before the tariffs hit, though analysts say that strategy buys little more than time. Consumers may soon face higher retail prices if the company can’t absorb the added costs.
Smaller firms, meanwhile, lack the flexibility or cash reserves to pivot quickly. For them, the new tariffs could prove fatal.
No Off-Ramp in Sight
The Trump administration insists the tariffs are a negotiating tactic, but so far, no negotiations appear to be underway. For instance, Vietnam offered o% tariffs on U.S. goods and services in a push to address Trump’s concerns. But it was rejected, with Navarro saying on Monday that it would not be enough for the administration to lift its new levies announced last week.
“Let’s take Vietnam. When they come to us and say ‘we’ll go to zero tariffs,’ that means nothing to us because it’s the nontariff cheating that matters,” Navarro said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
Chinese officials have repeatedly questioned Washington’s sincerity, suggesting that current actions reflect “no serious interest in talks.”
If China stays true to its decision to “strike back”, a full-scale trade rupture — with global supply chains, financial markets, and bilateral relations in the balance — may soon follow.
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