Goldman Sachs has pushed back its expected timeline for U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, now projecting quarter-point reductions in September and December 2026 rather than the previously anticipated June start, according to a research note published Wednesday.

The revision comes amid heightened concerns over inflation pressures stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and its impact on global energy prices, even as recent labor-market softening keeps the door open for earlier action if needed.

The Wall Street firm had previously forecast the Fed to begin easing in June, followed by another cut in September. In the updated outlook, Goldman strategists wrote: “By September, we expect both some further labor market softening and progress on underlying inflation to contribute to the case for a cut.”

They added that earlier reductions remain possible “if the labor market weakens sooner and more substantially than expected.”

The note arrives against a backdrop of significant market turbulence driven by the Middle East conflict, now in its second week. Brent crude futures have surged past $104 per barrel in recent sessions — levels not seen since mid-2025 — after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran disrupted production and led to a near-total halt in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman highlighted that sustained energy-price increases could feed into broader inflation and inflation expectations, complicating the Fed’s path to policy normalization.

Despite the oil shock, the brokerage emphasized that a sufficiently sharp deterioration in labor-market conditions would likely override inflation concerns.

“If the labor market weakens enough to warrant earlier rate cuts, concerns about higher oil prices feeding into inflation or inflation expectations are unlikely to prevent the Fed from easing sooner,” the strategists wrote.

Labor Market and Inflation Signals

A weaker-than-expected February jobs report has kept alive concerns over cooling employment momentum, with nonfarm payrolls growth slowing and the unemployment rate ticking higher in recent months. Goldman sees this trend as supportive of eventual easing but not yet decisive enough to prompt immediate action.

Traders are currently pricing in only a ~41% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s September meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The central bank is widely expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at the upcoming two-day policy meeting ending March 18, with February CPI data (due Wednesday) and core PCE inflation (due Friday) likely to show persistent pressures above the 2% target.

The Fed outlook revision reflects a broader risk-off environment. Global equities have come under pressure, with the pan-European STOXX 600 down 0.7% Wednesday after earlier steep declines. Asian stocks were mixed overnight, while U.S. futures traded flat. The U.S. dollar has strengthened as the dominant safe-haven asset, gaining ground against major peers despite geopolitical uncertainty.

The Middle East conflict continues to dominate sentiment. Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, with threats to attack vessels, halting tanker traffic, and driving up freight rates. Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery remains offline after a drone strike, and disruptions persist across Iraqi Kurdistan fields and Israeli gas production. The IEA has proposed the largest-ever release of strategic reserves, and G7 energy ministers have endorsed using stockpiles, though no coordinated action has been confirmed.

Implications for Monetary Policy and Economic Growth

Goldman’s delayed timeline aligns with a growing consensus that energy-driven inflation could delay the Fed’s easing cycle. A sustained oil-price shock — if the conflict prolongs — would raise input costs, fuel inflation expectations, and potentially force the Fed to hold rates higher for longer, weighing on growth-sensitive sectors.

However, the brokerage stressed that labor-market weakness could override inflation concerns. If payrolls deteriorate further and unemployment rises meaningfully, Goldman sees the Fed prioritizing employment support over temporary energy-price pressures — a view consistent with the central bank’s dual mandate.

For markets, the revised outlook adds to near-term uncertainty. Higher-for-longer rates would pressure rate-sensitive assets (tech, real estate, small caps) while supporting the dollar and financials. Energy equities and commodities remain beneficiaries, though volatility is elevated.

The Fed’s March meeting will provide the next major signal, with CPI and PCE data likely to shape expectations for the balance of 2026. If Middle East tensions ease and oil prices stabilize, Goldman’s September-December timeline could prove conservative. If the conflict drags on or escalates, inflation risks rise, potentially pushing rate cuts even further out.

So far, the conflict is showing no clear sign of ending, and energy markets remain in flux, exposing economies to a dilemma.

Anthropic is engaged in discussions with a consortium of major private equity firms, including Blackstone and Hellman & Friedman, to establish a joint venture focused on deploying the startup’s Claude AI technology across the investors’ portfolio companies, according to a report by The Information.

The proposed partnership would adopt a Palantir-style model, providing consulting services and implementation support to help private equity-backed businesses integrate Anthropic’s AI models into their operations — ranging from workflow automation and data analysis to customer service and decision-support tools.

The report cited one person directly involved in the talks and another briefed on the discussions.

The talks come at a delicate moment for Anthropic, which has been embroiled in a high-profile dispute with the U.S. Department of Defense. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth labeled the company a “supply chain risk” and imposed a six-month phase-out of Claude usage across federal agencies and defense contractors after Anthropic refused to remove restrictions on mass domestic surveillance and fully autonomous lethal weapons.

However, Reuters reported Wednesday that the Pentagon has informed senior leaders that use of Anthropic tools — including Claude — may continue beyond the phase-out period if deemed critical to national security, offering a potential reprieve.

The Information noted that the U.S. government conflict temporarily disrupted the joint-venture discussions but did not derail them. Talks are ongoing, with the private equity partners viewing Anthropic’s enterprise-grade AI — known for strong reasoning, safety alignment, and constitutional guardrails — as a valuable tool for portfolio companies seeking efficiency gains in a competitive environment.

Rationale and Palantir Parallel

The proposed structure draws inspiration from Palantir Technologies, which has built a lucrative business model around helping government and enterprise clients implement its data analytics and AI platforms through hands-on consulting, integration, and customization services. A similar Anthropic-led venture would position the startup to capture recurring revenue from implementation, training, and ongoing support — complementing its core API and model licensing business.

For private equity firms, the partnership would offer a differentiated edge: portfolio companies could deploy Claude to optimize operations, reduce costs, and accelerate digital transformation — particularly in sectors such as financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, and retail, where AI adoption is accelerating but in-house expertise remains limited.

Blackstone, one of the world’s largest alternative asset managers with over $1 trillion in assets under management, has increasingly focused on technology-enabled value creation across its portfolio. Hellman & Friedman, known for software and technology investments, has backed numerous enterprise software and SaaS companies that could benefit from advanced AI capabilities.

The Pentagon standoff — which led to a public criticism from Defense Secretary Hegseth — has paradoxically boosted Claude’s consumer popularity, propelling the iOS app to the top of Apple’s U.S. free apps chart in late February. Many users cited ethical alignment as a reason for switching from ChatGPT after OpenAI announced its own Pentagon agreement.

Despite the controversy, Anthropic has continued to secure enterprise traction. The company has emphasized its commitment to safety and constitutional AI principles, refusing to compromise on red lines around surveillance and lethal autonomy — a stance that has resonated with privacy-conscious customers and developers.

The potential joint venture would represent a significant step in Anthropic’s commercialization strategy, moving beyond model licensing to high-touch consulting and integration services. It would also diversify revenue streams ahead of a possible IPO in 2027–2028, following OpenAI’s expected public debut.

For private equity firms, access to Claude via a dedicated venture could accelerate portfolio value creation and provide a competitive edge in operational efficiency. The model aligns with the industry’s push to extract more value from AI beyond simple software licensing.

The talks also highlight the evolving relationship between frontier AI labs and large institutional investors. Private equity’s deep pockets and long-term horizons make it an attractive partner for AI companies seeking stable capital and real-world deployment opportunities. The joint venture is expected to mark one of the largest private-sector AI deployment initiatives to date, potentially setting a template for how other labs partner with financial sponsors to scale enterprise adoption.