I am tracking the numbers as the purses are great signals on where things stand. Please these numbers are from the mandatory fillings which candidates are required by US laws to file with the Federal Election Commission.

August total fund raised by candidate’s direct campaign:

• Kamala Harris – $190 million
• Donald Trump – $44.5 million

August total spending:

Harris –  $174 million ($135 million was on ads)

Trump – $61 million ( $47 million was on ads)

Amount in the bank on Sept 1:

• Harris – $235 million
• Trump – $135 million

Amount raised in August by broad affiliations:

• Harris: $361 million
• Trump;s: $130 million

Party Numbers in August:

• Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee – $22.3 million
• National Republican Campaign Committee – $9.7 million

Party Cash on Sept 1:

• Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee – $87.3 million
• National Republican Campaign Committee – $70.8 million

Comment: Harris is winning the purse campaign. Trump needs to open his game as the businessman, and unlock resources. Unlike 2016 where Trump won the digital ads battle, I see more Harris’ ads than Trump’s, possibly indicating that Trump is being outspent. May the best win.

Data sources: Federal Election Commission

(The absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence; you are free NOT to believe the filings because you do not have copies)

Comment on Feed

Comment 1: It would great to see the previous trends of how spents have impacted the outcome of the elections. That would help to know if there is a correlation between spent and outcome and possibly predict the winner. Thanks for the insights Ndubuisi Ekekwe

Comment #2: While ad spending generally increases visibility and helps shape public perception, I also believe it cannot be the only factor determinant factor. Public opinion can often outweigh these metrics.

Ndubuisi Ekekwe it would be valuable to see how ad spending has influenced election outcomes in the past. If you have access to this data, we would greatly appreciate if you could share it with us, sir.

My Response: There is always a correlation that people are more invested in things they give money. In US primary elections, the strength of donation is an indication of the appeal and viability of any candidacy. If Harris was not raising money, that would have been an issue. That does not mean anything on election day. But it is better for people to give you money than not. I did not write that anyone will win because of the fundraising advantage, but I am making a case that at least, even if they do not want to vote for her, they are giving her more money than Trump! I do not see how this is a negative for Harris.

I salute the team behind Geregu, they have accomplished an uncommon feat in the Nigerian capital market: “Geregu Power Plc, a major player in Nigeria’s electricity generation sector, continues to capture investor confidence, driving its market capitalization to an impressive N2.8 trillion in September 2024.” I mean, this was largely a dead asset, and just like that, it has a value close to N3 trillion.

In business and politics, leadership matters. Geregu has unlocked value for investors, with no excuses, that in the broken current Nigeria, alpha moments exist. Who knows…this could become the magic Nigeria needs to fix its electricity paralysis. I wish the team more wins.

Yes, take action, and do not just complain. Dangote has cement, Innoson has local cars, BUA has food, Ndubuisi has tech startups, …Geregu can take power; healthcare, roads, security, etc remain. #build.

From LinkedIn

Question: Is Geregu a Dead Asset?

My Response: Buying new computers for a primary school with poor teachers does not make it high performing. The Geregu Power Plant was constructed by the Federal Government of Nigeria and commissioned into service on the 16th February 2007 . It was nothing but dead until a new management came. In two years, that firm has appreciated from N250B to close to N3 trillion.  But before it got to the market, it was dead and worth nothing up to N50B. If you know what it means to unlock that kind of value, you will understand my thesis. Where have we ever experienced such in Nigeria?

Geregu Power Hits N2.8tn in Market Cap

Geregu Power Plc, a major player in Nigeria’s electricity generation sector, continues to capture investor confidence, driving its market capitalization to an impressive N2.8 trillion in September 2024.

This milestone highlights the company’s upward trajectory, underlining its domineering growth in the Nigerian energy market and reflecting strong bullish sentiment among investors.

Since the beginning of 2024, Geregu Power’s stock has been on a remarkable upward trend, with its market capitalization crossing the N1 trillion mark as early as January 15, 2024. This achievement was propelled by a 7.52% rise in its share price, marking the company’s entry into the prestigious “SWOOT” (Stocks Worth Over One Trillion) club.

Although it experienced a period of stagnation from April to August, Geregu Power’s stock regained momentum in September, posting a 7.7% increase in market cap, which ultimately reached N2.8 trillion.

Share Price Performance

Since its listing on the Nigerian Exchange in October 2022, Geregu Power’s stock has seen a stunning appreciation, driven by positive market sentiment and the company’s robust financial performance. By September 2024, the company’s stock had soared by over 700% from its initial trading price.

The year 2024 we witnessed some of the most significant price hikes for Geregu Power. In February, the share price surged 72%, jumping from N568 to N977, with a market volume of 17 million shares. Although the stock experienced a quieter phase between April and August, market activity picked up in September, with a 15% gain by the third week and 2.5 million shares traded.

Key Drivers of Investor Confidence

One of the most significant catalysts for Geregu Power’s strong market performance is its strategic partnership with Siemens Energy. The two companies signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in Berlin on May 29, 2024, aimed at expanding the capacity of the Geregu 1 power plant.

This partnership is designed to boost the plant’s operational capacity, ensuring more sustainable and efficient power generation. This partnership positions Geregu as a key player in driving Nigeria’s power infrastructure development forward.

This strategic collaboration has been noted as a major contributor to Geregu Power’s stellar financial performance. The company reported an impressive pre-tax profit of N30.2 billion for the first half of 2024, a 145% increase from the N12.3 billion recorded during the same period in 2023. Despite this remarkable growth, the market did not immediately react to the company’s positive results. However, by September, investor sentiment turned bullish again, pushing the stock up by 15%, with 2.5 million shares changing hands.

At Geregu Power’s 12th Annual General Meeting, Chairman Femi Otedola expressed optimism about the company’s future, emphasizing its focus on aligning with global energy trends.

He stated, “In 2024, Geregu Power aims to align our business operations with the global trend towards affordable, clean, and efficient energy systems.” This vision, combined with the company’s strategic moves, is believed to have further fueled investor confidence in Geregu’s long-term potential.

Another factor bolstering investor confidence is the company’s commitment to its shareholders. Geregu Power’s dividend policy has been praised by market participants for its generosity.

Patrick Ajudua, President of the New Dimension Shareholders Association, lauded the company’s decision to pay dividends above its earnings per share (EPS). He highlighted that despite an EPS of N6.25, the company will pay N8.00 as a dividend, demonstrating its commitment to rewarding shareholders.

Looking ahead, Geregu Power’s recent earnings forecast for Q4 2024 projects revenue of N61.46 billion, a 103% increase from Q2 2024. Additionally, the company anticipates a pre-tax profit of N11.07 billion, up from N8.25 billion recorded in Q2.

A Bright Future in Nigeria’s Energy Sector

With ongoing challenges in the country’s electricity generation and distribution, Geregu Power’s expansion plans and strategic partnerships with global players like Siemens put the company in a strong position to help bridge Nigeria’s energy gap. This means, that as the government looks to improve power supply and attract investments into the sector, the company’s leadership role is becoming increasingly critical.

Energy experts have noted that Geregu Power’s strategic initiatives, including its capacity expansion and commitment to delivering shareholder value, will likely keep it at the forefront of Nigeria’s energy transformation.

HP acquired Compaq, a largely IP-less company, and in the process ran itself down the drain. General Electric (GE) spun out GE Capital,  the company’s one oasis,  and  the nucleus of its large ticket business, and in the process lost its mission. Yes, GE failed to understand that some of the reasons people bought those turbines and machines were partly because GE Capital was funding the acquisition. But when GE Capital was out of the conversation, the core business of GE dried up; I wrote against the spinoff before it was concluded.

Now, we’re reading that Qualcomm was going after Intel: “Qualcomm recently made a move toward acquiring struggling chipmaker Intel, sources cited by CNBC confirmed, marking a potential mega-deal in the technology industry. This news, initially reported by the Wall Street Journal, caused Intel’s shares to jump by 3%, while Qualcomm’s stock fell by a similar margin. If this deal were to materialize, it could become one of the largest technology mergers in history, given Intel’s current market capitalization of over $90 billion.”

Goodness me – that would be an ecclesiastical business marriage. But I am not sure the US regulators would allow such to happen. While everyone wants to save Intel,  this conversation is not wholly about Intel. Yes, TSMC, China and Taiwan are right there on the table, and the US government will decide if Qualcomm can actually run and manage the Intel Foundry business which is strategic for America. 

More so, AMD, and to a large extent Nvidia, may file briefs against that combination. Qualcomm + Intel will be a lethal combo which can rattle many competitors considering the position of Intel in the desktop world and Qualcomm in mobile. The US Government may not want one company to control those two worlds.

Intel is not dead yet, and its position is still better than where AMD was about 18 years ago. With one design, AMD is back and strong. Intel should be fine if it goes ahead to spin out the foundry business so that it can focus on design. The problem with Intel Foundry staying inside and serving only Intel is that if Intel does not have a great design cycle, triggering product demand, the foundry becomes under-utilized. Also, no matter the governance, companies like AMD and NVIDIA may not risk sending their designs to a foundry within Intel. In other words Intel Design + Intel Foundry will not work as I have pointed out for years. There are limited incentives for Nvidia, Apple, AMD, and others to move their businesses from TSMC to Intel Foundry within Intel Corp.

An independent contract foundry is a better business model since statistically you have a higher probability of getting orders since any company which wins on design is your customer. Unlike an internal foundry that is serving only  its internal design unit,  and which can have a poor design cycle, a contract foundry business goes with any winner, and can win head or tail, all the time!

Intel must not sell. Rather, it must spin out Intel Foundry and focus on design. The successes of Nvidia and Broadcom should not make the giant panic; it needs to go back to transistors and craft better designs, because design is where the wins come! But it has to part ways with the foundry business as quickly as possible.

LinkedIn News: Qualcomm has initiated acquisition talks with chipmaking competitor Intel, but an agreement is “far from certain,” The Wall Street Journal reported, citing anonymous sources. With a market value of $93.2 billion, an Intel takeover would be one of the largest tech pacts ever, and the deal would almost certainly draw antitrust scrutiny. Qualcomm’s overture comes at a turbulent time for Intel, which has embarked on turnaround initiatives, including cutting 15% of its workforce. Earlier this week, Intel announced it would create an AI chip for Amazon and spin off its foundry business.

Qualcomm Moves to Acquire Intel, Pushing Its Shares Up