Revealing lines there: “Nigeria’s economic future is being mapped out in bold projections, with optimistic forecasts laid out by renowned economist Bismarck Rewane. Speaking at the Access Bank Customer Forum in Lagos, Rewane, the Managing Director and CEO of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, painted a picture of a growing economy, steadying at a projected 3.5% growth by 2026.

“That growth, he said, would push Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) to an impressive $400 billion, potentially making the country the second-largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa…He projected that market capitalization would reach N58 trillion by 2026”.

Interesting. So, Nigeria is not #2 in Africa on GDP right now, and we have to work to become #2. Good People, in 2015, we hit $560 billion in GDP. Then elections happened, and now, we have to work hard to hit $400 billion.

Naira has lost a value of 10x against Francophone Africa’s CFA Franc. In 2015,  Cotonou’s 1CFA Franc currency exchanged for 25 kobo, today, it is close to N2.50. Kenyan shillings have also done the same 10x against the Naira – and Naira continues to bleed. So, how do you grow under such situations? Simply, even this $400 billion GDP by 2026 is not assured.

Then the stock market which we expect to hit N58 trillion by 2026. If you use today’s exchange rate, that is less than $40 billion. South Africa’s stock exchange is well ahead of $1.2 trillion, but Nigeria needs to hit $40 billion by 2026. Right now, the stock market of Botswana is larger than Nigeria’s stock exchange.  A company in South Africa can buy all companies in our stock market with 30% of its global value.

Good People, note one thing: we are underperforming as a country, no matter how we want to put it.  And we have lost a decade. During Christmas, I was in Ovim, and I went to Oriendu Market to shop with Ifeoma (we paid for things but did not collect any…). But instead of the typical “go slow” around the junction, the road was clear. That was when I knew the extent of the economic paralysis in Nigeria!

Nigeria’s GDP will Hit $400bn in 2026 – Bismarck Rewane

Elon Musk, the self-styled champion of free speech, has retreated – after weeks of defiance, where he declared war on Brazil’s Supreme Court, following its ban on his social media platform for disobeying the court’s orders.

Now, Musk’s social network, X, has finally bowed to the demands it once vowed to resist, according to the New York Times.

It’s an unexpected move. Musk, a figure known for his relentless bravado and penchant for controversy, had refused to comply with orders to take down accounts that a Brazilian justice claimed were undermining the country’s democracy. In the midst of this standoff, Musk fired local employees, shuttered X’s offices in Brazil, and refused to pay the mounting fines. His stance was clear: no censorship, no compliance.

But things have changed

The signs emerged on Wednesday when the Supreme Court’s main justice in this matter, Alexandre de Moraes said in a court filing that X had hired new lawyers in Brazil – a shift from the company’s earlier stance, when it refused to obey the Supreme Court order to name its legal representatives.

Late Friday night, X’s legal team quietly filed papers with Brazil’s Supreme Court, revealing that the company had, in fact, complied with the justice’s orders. The accounts that had stirred the ire of the court? Taken down. The fines that Musk scoffed at? Paid. The representative that the company had been dragging its feet to appoint? Finally in place. A concession, plain and simple.

The Times quoted one of those lawyers, Sérgio Rosenthal, saying in a text message on Thursday that X planned to comply with all of the judge’s orders to take down accounts. “The goal is to regularize the company’s situation in Brazil,” he said.

It also noted a different lawyer, André Zonaro Giacchetta, on Saturday morning, saying the conditions to return to Brazil “have already been met, but it depends on the assessment of” Brazil’s Supreme Court.

This is not the image Musk cultivated. The tech magnate, who often frames himself as a gladiator for free speech, especially on his social media platform, now finds himself cornered in a fight he cannot win. And while Musk remains silent on the matter, the paperwork tells a different story: one of a man and a company outmaneuvered.

Brazil’s Supreme Court wasn’t interested in Musk’s flair for the dramatic. Moraes has been steadfast in his mission to keep the country’s democracy from being undermined by online disinformation. He didn’t hesitate to block X across Brazil when Musk refused to comply with orders to remove accounts Moraes deemed threatening to the state.

For Musk, this is not the first time his ideals have clashed with the realpolitik of governing bodies. X has similarly bent the knee to authorities in India and Turkey. But in Brazil, the stakes were higher. X has around 20 million users in the country, a crucial market that Musk couldn’t afford to alienate any longer. Meanwhile, users flocked to rival platforms like Threads and Bluesky, eroding X’s influence with each passing day of the blackout.

And that wasn’t the only complication. Brazil’s Supreme Court had seized $2 million from Musk’s satellite internet company, Starlink, to cover X’s fines. Musk’s ambitions in Brazil were becoming costly, not just for his social network but for his other ventures as well.

Yet, even in defeat, Musk couldn’t help but indulge in theatrics. On Wednesday, X briefly resurfaced in Brazil, bypassing the court-ordered block in what Brazil’s telecom regulator described as a “deliberate disregard” for the Supreme Court’s ruling. Musk took to X, posting cryptically: “Any sufficiently advanced magic is indistinguishable from technology,” he said.

It was a wink, a sleight of hand that suggested the return was something mystical rather than a calculated move. But the court wasn’t amused. Moraes promptly imposed a hefty $1 million per day fine and re-blocked the platform.

Now, Musk faces a difficult reality. X remains inaccessible in Brazil, one of its largest markets, and any hope of regaining traction hinges on the country’s Supreme Court lifting the ban. For all of Musk’s bluster, the power of nation-states has proven formidable.

It’s also a blow to the right-wing commentators in Brazil who had previously rallied behind Musk’s refusal to comply. Figures like Paulo Figueiredo, a prominent pundit who had his account blocked, hailed Musk as a hero for standing up to Brazil’s judiciary. But after the filing, Figueiredo lamented Musk’s capitulation, calling it “a sad day for freedom of expression.”

Musk’s allies, once loyal and admiring, are now left to reconcile their disappointment with their admiration for the man who promised to defy the system but ultimately fell in line.

This entire episode has been a boon for Justice Moraes. Since 2019, he has been a central figure in Brazil’s battle to regulate online speech, ordering the removal of hundreds of accounts that he argues pose a threat to Brazil’s democracy. His actions have been divisive, seen by some as an essential safeguard and by others as overreach. But in this clash with one of the world’s most influential tech moguls, Moraes has emerged victorious.

Musk, for his part, will no doubt continue to rail against government overreach and censorship, but the reality is hard to ignore: even the most powerful tech platforms can be brought to heel when faced with the authority of a state determined to protect its interests.

As X remains blocked, Musk’s once-defiant posture seems less like the stand of a free-speech warrior and more like a costly miscalculation. And in Brazil, at least for now, the voice of the state is louder than the voice of the platform.

Nigeria’s economic future is being mapped out in bold projections, with optimistic forecasts laid out by renowned economist Bismarck Rewane. Speaking at the Access Bank Customer Forum in Lagos, Rewane, the Managing Director and CEO of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, painted a picture of a growing economy, steadying at a projected 3.5% growth by 2026.

That growth, he said, would push Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) to an impressive $400 billion, potentially making the country the second-largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa.

“The Nigerian economy will grow at 3.5 per cent (approximately $400bn). Nigeria is on track to becoming the second-largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa,” Rewane declared, setting the tone for what he sees as a bright, albeit challenging, future for the country.

As part of this economic optimism, Rewane also foresaw improvements in Nigeria’s foreign exchange (forex) auction system. He projected that foreign reserves, a critical factor in the country’s economic stability, would grow to $20 billion, further strengthening the nation’s financial standing.

“There will be an efficient forex auction system, and unencumbered foreign reserves will hit $20bn,” Rewane predicted, reflecting his belief in a leaner, more functional system.

However, not all is set on an easy course. While there are gains to be expected, the naira’s performance is less than ideal. According to Rewane, by 2026, the naira is expected to trade at N1,550 to the dollar in the parallel market. This, he explained, will be driven by a combination of intervention funds, diaspora remittances, and exchange rate policies.

“These gains are driven by intervention funds, remittances, and adjustments to exchange rate policies,” Rewane noted, though he acknowledged that the exchange rate was a cause for concern.

Inflation and Interest Rate Forecasts

On the topic of inflation, which has plagued the Nigerian economy in recent years, Rewane offered some relief. He predicted that inflation would drop to 22% by 2026, a notable improvement from its current levels. In tandem with this decline, he expects the monetary policy rate (MPR) to come down to 20% annually, which, in his view, would reduce the prevalence of bad loans in the banking sector.

“We will see inflation drop to 22 per cent, and the MPR is likely to come down to 20 per cent, which will reduce bad loans,” Rewane explained, pointing to the potential for a healthier financial sector with reduced risk.

Petrol Prices and Stock Market Growth

Fuel prices, always a recurring controversial issue in Nigeria, are expected to stabilize at N900 per liter by 2026, according to Rewane. This, he said, would be due to increased production from the Dangote refinery and smaller modular refineries, ensuring a steadier supply of fuel.

“We expect petrol to stabilize at N900 per liter due to increased production from Dangote refinery and modular refineries,” Rewane said, giving Nigerians some hope for fuel price stability.

He also had positive news for the stock market. He projected that market capitalization would reach N58 trillion by 2026, supported by the listing of major companies such as Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). These developments, he argued, would inject fresh energy into the market and attract more investors.

Commodity Prices on the Rise

Despite the encouraging forecasts for economic growth and inflation, the cost of essential commodities is expected to rise significantly. Rewane predicted that by 2026, a basket of tomatoes would cost N20,000, a bag of rice would sell for N75,000, and a bag of beans would reach N110,000. These price hikes reflect the ongoing pressures on food supply and demand in the country.

Minister of Finance’s Optimism

While Rewane’s forecasts provide a broad outlook, the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, also weighed in with some encouraging data. According to Edun, Nigeria has experienced a net inflow of approximately $2.35 billion per month into the Central Bank’s reserves over the first seven months of the year, which has helped stabilize the naira in the forex market.

“There has been a net inflow in the first seven months of this year of about $2.35bn every month,” Edun explained. This, he said, had also contributed to improved foreign exchange liquidity.

“We also have foreign exchange liquidity. The gross reserves are up,” he added.

The finance minister credited the government’s efforts for these positive developments.

“On the fiscal side as well, government revenues are growing,” Edun said, highlighting the strides made in improving the country’s fiscal position.

However, he noted that Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio, currently at 10%, and revenue-to-GDP ratio at 15%, were still low, calling for increased spending on infrastructure and social safety nets.

Diverging Views from Taiwo Oyedele

While Rewane’s projections were largely optimistic, Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, voiced a more cautious outlook. He expressed concerns over Nigeria’s current economic challenges, including divestment, poor education, and rising unemployment.

“Our projection is slow, and I do not pray that Bismarck’s projection comes to pass,” Oyedele said, highlighting the issues that continue to impede Nigeria’s economic progress. He also pointed out that the naira had lost ten times more value than the Kenyan shilling, emphasizing the magnitude of Nigeria’s currency depreciation in recent years.

Oyedele stressed the need for more data-driven decision-making to ensure that Nigeria’s policies and reforms are effective.

“We need to use data and evidence so that it can work for us,” he said, advocating for a more informed approach to policy-making.

In closing, Oyedele shared the government’s plans to reduce corporate income tax in the coming years, aiming to ease the tax burden on businesses while improving the efficiency of tax collection to increase revenues.

Bismarck Rewane’s projections, supported by key government insights, suggest a mixed outlook for Nigeria’s economy. While there are clear signs of potential growth, especially in GDP, forex reserves, and the stock market, the challenges of inflation, rising commodity prices, and currency depreciation cannot be overlooked.