The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is kicking off its final meeting of 2025 today, Tuesday, December 9, with the highly anticipated interest rate announcement set for tomorrow, Wednesday, December 10, at 2:00 p.m. ET.
This follows a two-day session, including a policy statement, updated economic projections including the “dot plot” for future rates, and a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell starting at 2:30 p.m. ET.
It’s a pivotal moment, especially amid a year marked by economic turbulence, including a recent government shutdown that delayed key data releases like October’s inflation and jobs figures.
The market is pricing in a strong likelihood of the Fed delivering its third consecutive 25-basis-point (0.25%) rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate down to a range of 3.00%-3.25% from the current 3.25%-3.50% post-September and October cuts.
Tools like the CME FedWatch show about an 80-87% probability of this move, driven by a cooling labor market—layoff announcements hit 1.17 million through November, the highest since 2020—and persistent but moderating inflation— September’s core PCE at 2.9%, above the 2% target but down from peaks.
A Reuters poll of over 100 experts found 82% expecting the cut to support jobs without reigniting inflation. However, there’s internal Fed division—October’s minutes showed splits, with some preferring to hold steady—and forecasts for 2026 vary, with medians pointing to two more cuts but no clear consensus.
The Fed’s “data-dependent” approach is complicated by gaps from the shutdown, but Inflation held steady at 3% annualized in September up slightly from 2.9% in August, per BLS data. November figures drop post-meeting on December 18.
Jobs: Murky, but JOLTS job openings data releases today could show softening demand. Unemployment report follows on December 16. GDP growth forecasts in the SEP may be revised down slightly due to shutdown impacts, but the Fed ended its balance sheet runoff on December 1, signaling a pivot toward easing.
If the Fed surprises with a hold or bigger cut unlikely, <5% odds, it could jolt markets—stocks dipped Monday on caution. A cut could lift growth stocks and sectors like tech/real estate cheaper borrowing boosts valuations, but uncertainty lingers for 2026.
Asia markets fell today, echoing Wall Street’s pre-decision jitters. BTC hovered around $90K today (-1.4%), with traders eyeing dovish signals for a rally—non-yielding assets like BTC thrive on lower rates.
Yields may dip further; USD could weaken vs. EUR if cuts signal prolonged easing. Dovish tilt could squeeze shorts in silver/gold, with COMEX deliveries already at 52M oz 87% of inventories.
With the FOMC meeting underway today and the announcement looming tomorrow, the baseline expectation remains a 25-basis-point (0.25%) rate cut, lowering the federal funds target range to 3.50%-3.75%—the third consecutive easing move this year.
This would reflect the Fed’s prioritization of a softening labor market unemployment edging up to 4.2%, layoffs at 1.17 million through November—the highest since 2020 over sticky inflation (core PCE at 2.9%, above the 2% target but stable).
However, internal divisions evident in October’s 10-2 vote and hawkish dissent from members like Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller and data gaps from the recent government shutdown introduce risks of a hold 12-20% odds per CME FedWatch or even a hawkish surprise.
A measured cut signals the Fed’s confidence in achieving a “soft landing”—sustaining moderate GDP growth ~2.1% annualized in Q3 while taming inflation without tipping into recession. By ending quantitative tightening on December 1, the Fed is injecting subtle liquidity which could boost credit availability and support business investment.
However, with forecasts for only 1-2 more cuts in 2026 median dot plot projection: 3.00%-3.25% by year-end, prolonged easing is off the table, tempering growth stimulus. Powell’s presser will be key—watch for hints on 2026 pauses or Chair succession his term ends May 2026.
Overall, expect volatility, but the base case is a measured cut to balance jobs and prices in a resilient if uneven economy.






