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Senate Passes Bill Increasing Ways and Means Borrowing Limit to 10%, Sparks Concern Over Nigeria’s Fiscal Stability

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In a move that has raised eyebrows and sparked debate across Nigeria, the Senate on Wednesday amended the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Act, increasing the borrowing limit the apex bank can offer the federal government from five percent to 10 percent.

This adjustment, swiftly approved during an emergency plenary session led by Senate President Godswill Akpabio, marks a significant shift in Nigeria’s fiscal policy, with potential implications for the nation’s economic stability.

The borrowing facility, commonly referred to as Ways and Means, is a financial mechanism through which the CBN provides short-term loans to the federal government to cover budgetary shortfalls. The CBN Act capped this borrowing at five percent of the previous year’s revenue, a measure designed to prevent excessive reliance on central bank financing. However, this limit was recklessly breached by the preceding government of Muhammadu Buhari, in a show of fiscal indiscipline that resulted in inflation.

During the session on Wednesday, the amendment was presented, debated, and passed with surprising speed. The Senate President, Mr. Akpabio, said that the increased borrowing limit was necessary to support the government in meeting its financial obligations.

He urged Nigerians to remain peaceful in their advocacy for better governance, stating, “We urge Nigerians to shun any act of violence. The government is doing a lot, we in the parliament are also doing a lot.”

The Ways and Means facility has been a recurring feature in Nigeria’s fiscal discussion, with the Debt Management Office (DMO) revealing that a staggering N22.7 trillion borrowed from the CBN by the federal government was securitized in May 2023. The DMO also noted that the securitization of the ways and means debt was responsible for the N24.33 trillion increase in the debt stock, which took Nigeria’s public debt to N121.67 trillion in March.

This debt accounted for more than 40 percent of the money supply in the economy, highlighting the extent of the government’s reliance on this funding source. More recently, an ad-hoc committee chaired by Senator Isah Jibrin was established to investigate a N30 trillion Ways and Means debt incurred by the previous administration under President Muhammadu Buhari. The committee has yet to submit its findings, leaving many questions unanswered about the transparency and sustainability of this borrowing practice.

During the debate on the bill’s amendment, Senate Leader Opeyemi Bamidele defended the increase, arguing that it was essential for the federal government to address immediate and future financial needs.

“The essence of the bill is to enable the federal government to meet its immediate and future obligations due to the increasing need for funds to finance the budget deficit and other expenses,” Bamidele stated, adding that the advances from the CBN are typically short-term loans intended to be repaid by the government.

Bamidele outlined several potential benefits of the increased borrowing limit, including the provision of immediate funds to cover budget shortfalls, support for essential government projects, and the maintenance of financial market stability. He also suggested that the increased borrowing could stimulate economic activity and potentially create jobs by injecting money into the economy.

“Lower the government borrowing cost by providing cheaper funds than the traditional borrowing method,” Bamidele added, suggesting that this approach could be more cost-effective for the government.

House of Representatives Disagreed

However, not all lawmakers agreed. In the House of Representatives, the bill’s passage was met with significant opposition and controversy. During a plenary session, opposition parties staged a walkout after a proposed amendment by Kingsley Chinda, which suggested a two percent borrowing increase, was rejected. Chinda argued that a lower limit would enhance transparency in federal government spending, but his proposal was overruled by James Faleka, chairman of the finance committee, who argued against going below the existing five percent threshold.

The debate reached a peak when Ibrahim Isiaka, a lawmaker from Ogun state, proposed raising the borrowing limit to 10 percent, a motion that was subsequently supported by former Deputy Speaker Idris Wase. Despite a loud dissenting voice from the opposition, Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu ruled in favor of the amendment, sparking further discord and leading to a walkout by opposition lawmakers led by Chinda. The bill was eventually adopted and passed for a third reading, even though it was opposed by most lawmakers.

The decision to increase the Ways and Means borrowing limit has not been without criticism. Many experts and analysts have expressed concern over the potential inflationary impact of increased government borrowing. The CBN’s reliance on printing money to fund government deficits has been identified as a significant factor contributing to Nigeria’s high inflation rates.

CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso recently commented on the issue, stating, “Yes, inflation needs to be tamed in Nigeria, but it is important to understand how we got here. When you print money for Ways and Means, it has its consequences, and we are paying for those consequences right now.”

In February, Cardoso said that the CBN would no longer grant Ways and Means to the federal government unless the outstanding balance is settled.

Against this backdrop, the passage of the bill is seen by some as a reckless move that could exacerbate Nigeria’s economic challenges. It is believed that the increase in borrowing could lead to further inflationary pressures, eroding the purchasing power of Nigerians and potentially destabilizing the economy. Critics argue that rather than increasing borrowing limits, the government should focus on improving revenue generation and reducing wasteful spending.

Three Things Playing in the Nigerian Economy – Borrowing, Business Losses, Windfall Tax

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These are three things playing in the Nigerian economy.

#1 – Senate Expands Federal Government Borrowing from CBN

The Nigerian Senate has amended the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Act to enable the government to take more loans from the apex bank: “The Senate on Wednesday amended the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Act to increase the borrowing limit the bank can offer the federal government from five per cent to 10 per cent. The borrowing, popularly called Ways and Means, is a loan facility through which the CBN finances the federal government’s budget shortfalls.”

My Comment: with this expanded window, Nigeria will likely cancel any impact the recent CBN rate hike was expected to provide as the nation fights inflation. You raise the interest rate on companies, you flood the economy with free cash via loans to the government.

#2 – MTN Nigeria Records Biggest Half-year Loss On Record

MTN Nigeria broke loss records with a half-year hit of N519 billion:  “MTN Nigeria (MTNN), the local subsidiary of Africa’s largest mobile network operator MTN Plc, reported a sixfold surge in loss after tax to N519 billion in the first half of the year. According to its earnings report issued on Wednesday, this represents its biggest half-year loss on record. The loss for the six-month period is already roughly three times the loss it recorded for the whole of last year, complicating an ordeal dating back to the period Nigeria’s devaluation of the naira led to a massive foreign exchange loss for the wireless carrier.”

Comment: MTN may not pay tax to the Nigerian government possibly in the next two years. The implication is that some agencies like NITDA which depend on the percentage of profits from telco will struggle.

#3 – Banks FX-Related Profits Begin to Vanish

Nigeria’s banks made enormous profits as a result of changes in FX policies. We’re going to tax the realized FX gains to balance the economy.

Banks now: few of the gains are realized, and most have been provisioned for impairments: “[bank CEO] has stated that only about 10% of the bank’s foreign exchange gains recorded in 2023 are realized. …[he] made the statement while referring to the 70% windfall tax which has been on the bank’s realized FX gains from 2023…The Group CEO noted that most of the group’s revaluation gains have been provisioned as impairments.”

Comment: In the next quarter, I expect most of the profits which have been reported by banks to be reversed. One bank has already reversed its gains, noting that the profit was not later realized. In other words, Nigeria may not even receive much from this 70% windfall tax policy.

Intel Announces Plan to Cut 15,000 Jobs Following $10bn Cost-saving Plan

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Intel, a once-dominant force in the semiconductor industry, is embarking on a significant downsizing as part of a broader cost-saving initiative aimed at stabilizing its financial outlook and revitalizing its market position. The company has announced plans to reduce its workforce by over 15%, translating to more than 15,000 job cuts out of its current 125,000 employees.

This reduction is part of a comprehensive $10 billion cost-saving plan set to be implemented by 2025. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger shared the difficult news with employees, acknowledging the profound impact of the layoffs.

“This is painful news for me to share. I know it will be even more difficult for you to read,” he stated in a memo to the staff.

The company aims to streamline operations by cutting research and development (R&D) and marketing expenditures by billions each year through 2026, reducing capital expenditures by over 20% this year, and halting non-essential work. Additionally, Intel will conduct a thorough review of all active projects and equipment to ensure cost efficiency.

Financial Performance and Challenges

Intel reported a loss of $1.6 billion for Q2 2024, a significant increase from the $437 million loss in the previous quarter.

“Our Q2 financial performance was disappointing, even as we hit key product and process technology milestones,” Gelsinger admitted.

Despite the company achieving critical milestones, revenues have not grown as anticipated, and Intel has yet to fully capitalize on emerging trends such as artificial intelligence (AI).

The company’s second-quarter revenue stood at $12.8 billion, a slight 1% decrease year over year. While Intel has faced substantial losses in its Foundry business—$7 billion in operating losses in 2023 and another $2.8 billion this quarter—its PC and server businesses remain profitable. The company is also set to receive up to $8.5 billion in U.S. government funding from the CHIPS Act, providing some financial relief.

Investors have been critical of Intel’s financial performance, as the company has oscillated between losses and profits over the past two years, resulting in a cumulative gain of just $1.1 billion between Q2 2022 and Q1 2024. Intel has been the worst-performing tech stock in the S&P 500 this year, as noted by CNBC.

From a technological standpoint, Intel has struggled to establish a strong foothold in the AI server chip market, where competitors like Nvidia dominate. The company has also faced challenges in the graphics sector and had to significantly overhaul its flagship laptop chips to compete with energy-efficient ARM chips from Qualcomm and Apple.

Additionally, Microsoft recently opted for Qualcomm chips over Intel for its latest consumer hardware, further highlighting the competitive pressure Intel faces.

On the earnings call, Intel CFO David Zinsner emphasized that while the company’s next flagship AI laptop chip, Lunar Lake, shows promise, it alone will not be sufficient to reverse the company’s fortunes.

“The AI PC is a big winner for the company,” Zinsner stated but noted that Lunar Lake is a “narrow targeted product” relying on external wafers from TSMC. The subsequent product, Panther Lake, which will be internally sourced and have a much-improved cost structure, is expected to ramp up in the second half of 2025 with significant volume benefits by 2026.

Intel is now in the process of restructuring, suspending its dividend, and reducing overall spending while maintaining core investments to execute its strategic vision and build a resilient and sustainable semiconductor supply chain both in the U.S. and globally.

Detailed Breakdown of Intel’s Cost-Saving Measures

  • Workforce Reduction: Over 15,000 job cuts, representing more than 15% of Intel’s current 125,000 employees.
  • R&D and Marketing Expenditure Cuts: Billions of dollars in annual reductions through 2026.
  • Capital Expenditure Reduction: More than 20% reduction this year.
  • Operational Streamlining: Halting non-essential work and reviewing all active projects and equipment for cost efficiency.
  • Restructuring and Dividend Suspension: Maintaining core investments while reducing overall spending.

The company plans to complete the majority of the announced layoffs by the end of 2024, with a companywide enhanced retirement offering and voluntary layoff applications available to eligible employees starting next week.

Meanwhile, Microsoft has listed OpenAI, a company with which it has a long-term strategic partnership, as a competitor in its annual report. This move has sparked discussions about the evolving dynamics between the two companies, with some users expressing surprise and others anticipating potential conflicts. The shift highlights the competitive landscape in the AI and search engine sectors, where Microsoft now views OpenAI as a rival alongside other major players like Google and Amazon.

Farewell to the Elegant Stallion – Onyeka Onwenu Passes On

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Building on my March 2020 Tribute to Dr Victor Olaiya – Highlife’s “Evil Genius”, in May 2020, I paid tribute to Another African Music Legend, Tony Allen, but more recently, the singer, actor, broadcaster and activist, Onyeka Onwenu, whose love ballads and songs about women’s rights were a soothing balm during Nigeria’s rocky 1980s and earned her the nickname “Elegant Stallion”, has died at 72.

As reported in the UK Guardian Newspaper, she had just finished a performance at a private party in Lagos when she became ill and died hours later at a nearby hospital, having suffered a heart attack. She was best known for the disco anthem One Love (1986), and You and I (1991), which was repurposed for the 1999 movie, Conspiracy – which she also starred in – and is widely regarded as one of the most iconic soundtracks of Nollywood, the world’s second-largest film-production industry.

Just in case you missed it, one song that stands out for me and is etched in my memory is, and remains, Odenigbo calling for the unification of her homeland, Nigeria.

Adieu “Elegant Stallion” aka Onyeka Onwenu.

Understanding US Debt-to-GDP Ratio of 200% by 2045

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The trajectory of the United States’ federal government debt has been a topic of significant concern and discussion among policymakers, economists, and the public. As we look towards the future, projections indicate a challenging fiscal landscape. The Treasury Department’s forecast suggests that by 2045, the federal government’s debt could approximate 200% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This projection aligns with various analyses, including those from the International Monetary Fund and the Congressional Budget Office, which also predict a substantial rise in debt relative to GDP over the coming decades.

The debt-to-GDP ratio is a critical metric for assessing a country’s fiscal health. It compares the national debt to the country’s economic output as measured by GDP. A higher ratio implies a larger debt size relative to the economy, which can affect a country’s borrowing costs and financial stability.

Factors Contributing to the Rise

Several factors contribute to the projected increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio. These include demographic shifts, such as an aging population leading to higher Social Security and Medicare costs, and structural budgetary imbalances between federal revenues and expenditures. Additionally, interest rates are expected to play a role, as they influence the cost of servicing existing debt.

The forecasted debt levels pose significant policy challenges. They necessitate a reevaluation of fiscal strategies to ensure long-term sustainability. Policy options may include reforming entitlement programs, adjusting tax policies, and exploring avenues for economic growth to increase revenues without disproportionately raising the debt.

Economic growth can mitigate the impact of rising debt by expanding the GDP against which the debt is measured. Policies that foster innovation, productivity, and workforce participation are essential for promoting growth. However, growth alone is unlikely to resolve the debt issue without accompanying fiscal reforms.

The issue of high government debt levels is a matter of concern for economists and policymakers worldwide. When a nation’s debt reaches an elevated level compared to its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), it can lead to several potential economic and fiscal consequences.

High levels of debt can be inherently inflationary, as they may provide a stimulus to the economy, accelerating hiring and wage growth. If the economy is already at full employment, this could lead to higher inflation rates.

As debt levels rise, so can the interest rates on that debt. This increase in interest rates can lead to higher borrowing costs for the government, which in turn can crowd out private investment and slow economic growth.

Increased government debt can lead to greater market volatility. Investors may become hesitant to buy government debt securities if they doubt the government’s ability to repay, which can hurt the economy

It’s worth noting that while the U.S. faces its own fiscal challenges, it is not alone. Many developed nations grapple with high debt-to-GDP ratios, navigating the balance between growth, fiscal responsibility, and social welfare.

As we approach 2045, the decisions made today will significantly shape the fiscal reality of tomorrow. It is crucial for ongoing dialogue and action to address the rising debt in a manner that secures economic stability and prosperity for future generations.

The conversation around the U.S. federal government debt is complex and multifaceted, involving economic theories, policy debates, and ethical considerations. What remains clear is the need for informed and proactive measures to manage the nation’s fiscal future responsibly.

Meanwhile, in Nigeria, the Senate has amended the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Act to enable the government to take more loans from the apex bank: “The Senate on Wednesday amended the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Act to increase the borrowing limit the bank can offer the federal government from five per cent to 10 per cent. The borrowing, popularly called Ways and Means, is a loan facility through which the CBN finances the federal government’s budget shortfalls.”