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Nigeria Plans to Increase 2024 Budget Amid Challenging Economic Realities

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In a bid to bolster the 2024 budget, Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of Economy, Wale Edun, has indicated that the Federal Government may seek additional appropriations from the National Assembly if the country experiences robust revenue performance next year.

Edun made this announcement on Monday, during his appearance before the Senate Committee on Finance to defend his ministry’s budget.

The minister, who also disclosed that the 2023 supplementary budget would be executed concurrently with the 2024 budget, outlined the government’s strategy, stating that savings would be utilized to enhance the availability of funds for the 2024 budget. He said the budget would be increased to reflect the government’s commitment to addressing economic needs and priorities.

The Senate Committee urged the finance minister to eliminate bottlenecks causing delays in budget implementation once passed. Chairman Sani Musa expressed concerns over the sluggish progress in executing the 2023 supplementary budget.

President Bola Tinubu presented the 2024 budget estimates of N27.5 trillion to the National Assembly on November 29, 2023. The budget breakdown included recurrent non-debt expenditure at N9.92 trillion, capital expenditure at N8.73 trillion, debt service at N8.25 trillion, revenue at N18.32 trillion, new borrowings at N7.83 trillion, and a deficit at N9.18 trillion.

The President projected economic growth at 3.76%, with an expected moderation of inflation to 21.4% in 2024.

Edun emphasized the importance of fiscal policy review and tax reforms to augment revenue generation. He assured that the government is not trying to increase, or introduce new taxes but enact reforms that will boost tax revenues.

He stressed that these measures would not only fortify the nation’s economy but also attract domestic and foreign direct investments, fostering job creation and wealth generation.

This development is coming amid growing criticism of the 2024 budget dubbed ‘Budget of Renewed Hope’ by experts, who believe it lacks the wits to address Nigeria’s current economic challenges.

Last week, Ben Akabueze, the Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation, said that the proposed N27.5 trillion budget for 2024, awaiting approval in the National Assembly, is “too small” to adequately address Nigeria’s economic needs.

“I’m always first to acknowledge that the budget of the Federal Government of Nigeria is way too small relative to our needs and our requirements but it is now a case of cutting out coats according to our cloth rather than our size,” noted Akabueze.

Besides this concern, prominent Nigerians have expressed worry over the features of the budget, with some calling it extravagant. Peter Obi, the Labour Party presidential candidate in the last general election, said the priorities outlined in the budget fail to tackle the most pressing need of Nigerians, citing significant allocation for trips and renovations.

Obi urged a comprehensive review and revision of the budget to align with the urgent needs of the country.

BudgIT Foundation, a prominent civic-tech organization advocating for transparency, accountability, and efficient service delivery in Nigeria, has voiced apprehensions regarding the 2024 budget proposed by President Bola Tinubu and presented to the National Assembly for approval.

The organization said it identified what it deems as alarming issues and discrepancies within the 2024 budget, prompting a call for a thorough review of its contents.

“Unfortunately, having reviewed the proposed 2024 Appropriation Bill breakdown, we observed that the Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration has continued with some deleterious budget practices from previous regimes that have fostered corruption, underdevelopment, unemployment, and multidimensional poverty,” the foundation said.

The budget assumptions and Nigeria’s economic realities

Besides the backdrop of volume and features, the budget is significantly based on economic assumptions that experts fear may not be attained. For instance, the budget’s projections anticipate an average crude oil price of $73.96 per barrel in the global market and Nigeria’s oil production at an average of 1.78 million barrels per day, with an estimated exchange rate of N700/$1.

However, these forecasts contrast starkly with the current realities of underwhelming oil output, the weakening performance of the naira in the forex market, and a persistent upward trend in inflation.

Since 2022, Nigeria has struggled to maintain a daily oil production average of 1.2 million barrels per day. Achieving a significant daily increase of over 500,000 barrels within a year poses a considerable challenge, particularly considering the recent decline in oil production, illegal refining activities, oil theft, and a lack of confidence in the government’s capacity to reverse these detrimental economic trends.

Though there has been an uptick in oil production recently, with about 1.5mbd, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) said on Tuesday that Nigeria recorded 127 crude oil theft incidents between December 2 and 8, underscoring a possibility of production decline.

Also, the realities are stacking up against the N700/$1 exchange rate projection made in the budget. As of Tuesday, the naira is trading at N864.29/$1 at the official market and N1,210/$1 at the parallel market.

With the government’s efforts to boost dollar liquidity yet to yield the desired results, experts have called for the 2024 budget to be reviewed in line with the nation’s economic realities.

“We call for a comprehensive review that prioritizes broad-based economic growth, reduces inequality, addresses poverty, tackles insecurity, bridges Nigeria’s infrastructure gap, and invests in human capital development,” BudgIT said.

Federal Court Rules Against Google in Epic Games Antitrust Case, Threatening App Store Monopoly

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In a pivotal court battle that could redefine the mobile app landscape, Google faced a significant blow as a federal court jury sided with Fortnite maker Epic Games Inc. in an antitrust case, potentially disrupting the mobile app economy and posing a substantial financial challenge for the tech giant.

The jury’s decision, reached after a nearly month long trial in San Francisco, concluded that Google Play had wielded monopoly power through anticompetitive practices. US District Judge James Donato will now determine whether Google must permit alternate payment and app distribution methods outside its exclusive app store.

Epic Games, having previously confronted Apple Inc. in a similar challenge (albeit with less success), sought not monetary damages but a transformation in app store policies.

Google, in response to the verdict, expressed intentions to contest the ruling.

Wilson White, Google’s vice president of Government Affairs & Public Policy, defended the company’s stance, stating, “Android and Google Play provide more choice and openness than any other major mobile platform.” He emphasized Google’s competition with Apple and other app stores on various platforms.

Tim Sweeney, CEO of Epic Games, reacted positively to the ruling, signaling the company’s intent to seek tangible alterations in Google’s app store policies. However, Sweeney refrained from divulging specific remedies, highlighting the need for substantial changes despite the court’s decision favoring Epic.

Legal experts and analysts anticipate significant ramifications following this verdict, anticipating potential alterations not just for Epic but for the broader internet ecosystem. Stanford University law professor Mark Lemley emphasized the case’s potential to disrupt the trend toward closed internet environments, potentially impacting market concentration.

He said the verdict “has the potential to be a very big deal — not just for Epic, which will get the ability to sell directly on Android phones — but for the entire internet.”

“The last two decades have seen a profound shift away from the open internet towards walled gardens,” he said. “That is one of the things that have kept the internet market so concentrated. This verdict just knocked a big hole in the garden wall.”

Paul Swanson, a technology and antitrust law specialist at Holland & Hart, suggested that Google might find it challenging to reverse such a sweeping verdict through post-trial procedures or appeals, indicating the substantial impact of the court’s decision.

This ruling arrives amid heightened scrutiny of Google’s business practices, coinciding with a separate antitrust case by the US Justice Department targeting the company’s search business.

Epic’s lawsuit, initiated three years ago, accused Google of monopolizing the Android app distribution market through restrictive agreements and anti-competitive maneuvers. Google defended its partnerships as measures to bolster Android phones against competitors like Apple’s iPhone.

“Epic wants you to give them a deal that they don’t have and they haven’t been able to get anywhere else,” Jonathan Kravis, a lawyer for Google, told the jury in his closing argument. “A deal that would effectively let them use the Play Store for free.”

The trial presented confidential internal communications and documents, offering insights into Google Play’s strategies and dealings with mobile device manufacturers and game developers. Jurors found Google guilty of restraining trade through revenue-sharing agreements and developer policies that hindered competition and limited alternate app distribution methods.

Alphabet had also countersued Epic, alleging contractual breaches and bad faith in Epic’s attempt to establish its own app store. However, the court opted to omit ruling on Google’s counterclaims following Epic’s executives’ admission of seeking alternatives to the Play Store.

The outcome of this trial, designated as ‘In Re Google Play Store Antitrust Litigation,’ has the potential to reshape the app market, pending Judge Donato’s forthcoming decision on remedial actions against Google.

Google has been running its Android app store and Google Play billing system as an “illegal monopoly,”a jury decided Monday in federal court in San Francisco. It’s a “historic victory” for Epic Games, owner of the popular game Fortnite, which filed a lawsuit accusing the tech giant of using “secret revenue sharing deals” to snuff out rival app stores, per The Verge. The implications of the verdict remain unclear, pending a decision on remedies by the judge in the case, and Google parent Alphabet is likely to appeal.

  • Epic was not seeking monetary damages, but CEO Tim Sweeney testified that it could save “billions” in fees if users weren’t routed to Google’s billing service.

  • The developer has been unsuccessful with a similar suit against Apple.

IMF Urges Central Bank of Nigeria to Raise Interest Rates to Tackle High Inflation

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recommended that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should raise interest rates in the next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting to address the country’s high inflation rate.

The call was made by Julie Kozack, the Director of the Communications Department at the IMF, during a press conference.

Citing Nigeria’s 27 percent inflation rate, Kozack pointed out that the CBN’s policy of mopping up excess liquidity from the system has contributed to the nation’s rising inflation.

“The Central bank, under its new leadership, has started to withdraw excess liquidity that was in the system and contributing to high inflation. The next Monetary Policy Committee meeting should further raise the policy interest rate. So, the Central bank is taking action to try to address the high inflation problem,” she said.

She highlighted the importance of addressing the high inflation rate, and the IMF’s call aligns with its previous recommendations during the Article IV Consultation held in February 2023.

Kozack emphasized the need for Nigeria to raise revenue, considering its low revenue-to-GDP ratio of 9%, which she deemed insufficient to support robust social safety nets and development spending.

“The next Monetary Policy Committee meeting should further raise the policy interest rate. So, the Central bank is taking action to try to address the high inflation problem. As we mentioned in our Article IV Consultation, which was held in February of 2023, raising revenue from the very current low revenue-to-GDP ratio of 9 percent is essential to create fiscal space for social and development spending.

“Nine percent of GDP is a very low revenue to GDP ratio, and it is really not high enough to be able to support strong social safety nets, and development spending, to help protect vulnerable households and also to meet Nigeria’s development needs,” she said

She acknowledged that the 2024 budget aims to reduce the fiscal deficit while creating space for priority spending on social and development initiatives.

However, since its Monetary Policy Meeting in July, when it raised the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), which measures interest rate, from 18.5 percent to 18.75 percent, the central bank has failed to hold another MPC meeting. In September, the CBN, under acting governor, Folashodun Shonubi, postponed the 293rd MPC meeting scheduled for Monday and Tuesday, September 25 and 26, 2023.

Although the postponement was attributed to the non-confirmation of the newly appointed governor Yemi Cardoso and deputy governors of the bank by the Senate, months have gone by since then with the central bank not attempting to hold the MPC.

The newly appointed governor, Cardoso, said the MPC meeting of the apex bank has not been effective, adding that his focus is to make it effective.

“For quite some time, there has been a dislocation of our monetary transmission mechanisms rendering the MPC meetings largely ineffective,” he said.

“For the avoidance of doubt, the Central Bank of Nigeria Act 2007 requires that the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank be held at least four times a year, and the Bank has satisfied this requirement for 2023. Our focus has been on ensuring these meetings are useful and effective.”

“Our focus is on ensuring that these meetings are useful and effective,” he stressed.

Against this backdrop, the IMF call for the increase of interest may likely not be heeded, even though Nigeria’s inflation rate has been consistently rising. The inflation rate surged to 27.33% in October, marking an increase from the previous month’s rate of 26.72%, according to the latest report published by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Central Bank of Nigeria Suspends Processing Charges on Large Cash Deposits As Another Cash Scarcity Looms

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has made a significant policy shift by issuing a directive to all banks and financial institutions, suspending processing charges previously levied on large cash deposits. This directive, effective immediately, affects deposits exceeding N500,000 for individual accounts and N3,000,000 for corporate accounts, halting the previously imposed 2% and 3% processing fees, respectively.

Referenced in the “Guide to Charges by Banks, Other Financial Institutions, and Non-Bank Financial Institutions” circular dated December 20, 2019 (FPR/DIR/GEN/CIR/07/042), this suspension will remain in effect until the end of April 2024, aiming to accommodate the evolving financial landscape and address the needs of depositors across Nigeria.

The directive mandates full compliance from all financial institutions regulated by the CBN, explicitly prohibiting the imposition of charges on cash deposits meeting or exceeding these thresholds. This move is anticipated to stimulate more substantial cash deposits, augment liquidity, and potentially have a positive impact on various sectors, including both small and large businesses.

This change in policy contrasts starkly with the 2019 announcement from the CBN to charge customers for cash deposits and withdrawals as a means to reduce cash circulation. The prior policy introduced processing fees of 3% for withdrawals and 2% for deposits exceeding N500,000 for individual accounts, while corporate accounts faced 5% processing fees for withdrawals and 3% for deposits above N3,000,000.

Moreover, just over a year ago, the CBN announced revised cash withdrawal limits, restricting over-the-counter withdrawals by individuals and corporate entities to N100,000 and N500,000, respectively, per week. Withdrawals above these limits incurred processing fees of 5% and 10%, respectively.

This latest suspension of processing charges on large cash deposits is a marked departure from previous policies and aims to ease financial burdens on depositors while fostering a more conducive banking environment. However, it comes at a time when Nigerians are once again struggling to access cash as ATMs across the country remain empty – a situation attributed to the currency swap policy introduced by the central bank late last year.

The controversial currency swap policy, which emanated from the new naira notes redesign, resulted in a nationwide cash scarcity. The central bank had announced a February deadline for the old notes to be phased out. However, the implementation unleashed chaos due to insufficient circulation of the redesigned notes, resulting in a legal showdown between several states, the CBN, and the federal government.

Although in its latest ruling on the matter, the Supreme Court overturned its earlier judgment, which extended the CBN’s deadline to December 31, ruling that both the new and the old naira notes will co-circulate indefinitely – both banks and Nigerians are believed to have become apprehensive. The situation resulted in speculations and possible hoarding of cash by financial institutions. Many banks have currently put a limit on how much customers can withdraw.

Andreessen Horowitz (a16z)’s Crypto Idea List for 2024

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The venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) has published its annual list of crypto ideas for 2024, highlighting the areas of innovation and opportunity in the blockchain space. The list, which is based on the insights and observations of the a16z crypto team, covers a wide range of topics, from decentralized artificial intelligence (AI) to immersive gaming experiences.

One of the main themes of the list is the convergence of crypto and AI, which the firm believes will enable new forms of collaboration, coordination, and creativity. For instance, a16z envisions a future where AI agents can autonomously interact with smart contracts, oracles, and decentralized applications (DApps) on the blockchain, creating novel use cases and value propositions. Some of the examples include:

AI-powered marketplaces that match buyers and sellers of data, compute, and algorithms, creating a more efficient and transparent data economy.

AI-driven governance mechanisms that leverage collective intelligence and machine learning to optimize decision-making and resource allocation in decentralized organizations.

AI-enhanced security solutions that leverage zero-knowledge proofs, homomorphic encryption, and secure multi-party computation to protect data privacy and integrity on the blockchain.

Here are our top 10 crypto ideas for 2024:

1. Decentralized identity: The ability to prove who you are and control your own digital identity without relying on intermediaries or centralized authorities. This will enable more privacy, security, and access to online services and platforms for billions of people around the world.

2. Web3: The next generation of the internet, powered by decentralized protocols and applications that are open, permissionless, and censorship resistant. Web3 will enable users to own and monetize their own data, content, and digital assets, as well as participate in the governance and development of the platforms they use.

3. DeFi: Decentralized finance, or the use of smart contracts and blockchain technology to create alternative financial products and services that are more transparent, inclusive, and efficient than traditional ones. DeFi will enable anyone with an internet connection to access a global and open financial system that offers more choice, liquidity, and opportunity.

4. NFTs: non-fungible tokens, or unique digital representations of anything from art and music to collectibles and gaming items. NFTs will enable new forms of creative expression, ownership, and monetization for creators and collectors alike.

5. DAOs: Decentralized autonomous organizations, or entities that are governed by a set of rules encoded in smart contracts and executed by a network of participants. DAOs will enable new ways of organizing and collaborating around shared goals and values, without the need for intermediaries or centralized control.

6. Metaverse: The collective virtual reality that encompasses all digital spaces and experiences, where users can interact with each other and with digital objects in immersive and realistic ways. The metaverse will enable new forms of socialization, entertainment, education, and commerce that transcend physical boundaries and limitations.

7. Layer 2: Solutions that aim to improve the scalability, speed, and cost-efficiency of blockchain transactions by moving some of the computation and storage off the main chain (layer 1) and onto a secondary layer (layer 2). Layer 2 will enable more users and applications to access the benefits of blockchain technology without compromising on security or decentralization.

8. CBDCs: Central bank digital currencies, or digital versions of national fiat currencies that are issued and controlled by central banks. CBDCs will enable central banks to modernize their monetary systems, enhance their monetary policy tools, and increase financial inclusion and stability.

9. Privacy: Technologies that aim to protect the privacy and anonymity of users and transactions on blockchain networks. Privacy will enable users to have more control over their personal information and data, as well as prevent unwanted surveillance and censorship by third parties.

10. Interoperability: The ability of different blockchain networks and protocols to communicate and exchange data with each other seamlessly and securely. Interoperability will enable more cross-chain collaboration, innovation, and value creation among the diverse crypto ecosystems.

Another theme of the list is the emergence of crypto-native gaming platforms that leverage blockchain technology to create immersive and interactive experiences for players. The firm predicts that crypto gaming will become a mainstream phenomenon in 2024, attracting millions of users and generating billions of dollars in revenue. Some of the examples include:

Play-to-earn games that reward players with crypto tokens or NFTs for their participation and contribution to the game economy. Metaverse platforms that enable users to create, explore, and socialize in virtual worlds powered by blockchain technology. GameFi platforms that combine gaming and decentralized finance (DeFi) to offer players new ways to earn, invest, and trade in-game assets and currencies.

The a16z crypto team concludes the list by stating that they are excited about the potential of crypto to transform various industries and sectors in 2024 and beyond. They also invite entrepreneurs, developers, researchers, and enthusiasts to join them in exploring and building the future of crypto. These are just some of the crypto ideas that we are excited about for 2024. We believe that crypto is not just a technology, but a movement that will transform the world for the better.