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Exploring New Ways to Support Employees Can Reduce Frauds at Nigerian Filling Stations

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The market for filling stations will continue to expand as long as Nigerians keep driving vehicles that need to be filled with petroleum and diesel. As long as people continue to utilize generators as a backup source of electricity for their homes and companies, the expansion won’t stop anytime soon either. The filling station market aspect of the downstream sector of Nigeria’s oil and gas industry is predicted to increase significantly between 2022 and 2027, at a rate of roughly 1.5% annual compound growth. Despite this, there are numerous obstacles to overcome.

Looking at the obstacles, our analyst observes that there would be no significant variation from what businesses and other stakeholders have experienced over the last two decades. Thousands of filling stations in Nigeria would see revenue and profit decline as a result of inconsistent national government policies and global economic uncertainties caused by geopolitical crises. Employees have always been one of the conduit pipes via which major sales revenue is faded away, regardless of the level to which they would drain owners’ investment fund. As stated in our earlier investigation, several forms of sharp practices ranging from non-remitting sales income to theft from the company’s accounts as well as meter manipulation occur every day, from attendants to managers.

Our fraud data at several filling stations shows that between 2012 and 2022, station owners reported that their managers and attendants had stolen a total of N281, 250, 240. Further analysis reveals that managers stole N5,985, 325 on average, while attendants stole an average of N8,388,643. Our data shows that when attendants and managers collaborated on stealing and theft activities, the average amount stolen increased. It was worth N43,000,000. An assessment of the fraud categories as well as the age range reveals that employees aged 31 to 40 years were the principal perpetrators in 55.17% of the 29 reported and prosecuted cases. Employees between the ages of 21 and 30 were followed by those between the ages of 41 and 50 in 24.13% of the cases.

Sensitivity of the Age Range to the Fraud Types

Another important finding from our analysis is the age range’s susceptibility to the forms of fraud. Our analysis reveals that employees of all ages deceived their companies at the same rate. According to our analyst, this necessitates serious thought on the part of the station owners and numerous employees’ associations in the downstream sector. This conclusion is bolstered further by the fact that petrol workers have been on low remuneration since 2016. From a psychological and economic standpoint, paying employees a low wage is one way to promote financial irregularity in all facets of any business. Given the current state of the economy in the nation, paying attendants between N10,000 and N15,000 and managers an average of N60,000 and expecting them to refrain from financial fraud is untenable.

Exhibit 1: Fraud Types by Average Salary

Source: Nigerian Newspapers, 2012-2022; Infoprations Analysis, 2022

Examining this insight in the context of employee average salaries and fraud types will be helpful. According to the data in Exhibit 1, three of the four most common fraud types in the industry involved employees making less than N50,000 while 66.66% of employees (n=3) who committed non-remittance of sales revenue earned the same amount as the four employees who were reported for tampering with the Point-of-Sale system, earning N20,000. More than half of the 21 employees who were reported by the stations and charged with the crime under the state’s criminal code also made the same salary. The average wage of the four employees who were accused of stealing and prosecuted in several courts was N60,000.

Exhibit 2: Average amount (N) stolen by age

Source: Nigerian Newspapers, 2012-2022; Infoprations Analysis, 2022

The large amount of average sales revenue that was lost in 2019 suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic’s effects must have encouraged employees to participate in fraudulent behaviour. This reinforces the earlier position that station employees would find it impossible to refrain from participating in different fraud operations in the face of economic uncertainty. For a lot of employees in the private and public sectors, 2019 was extremely difficult. For instance, the Nigerian government provided food and financial aid during the pandemic’s initial wave. According to our observations, the government provided some filling station employees in the states where the fraud instances our analyst examined with palliative care worth between N50,000 and N70,000.

Exhibit 3: Average amount (N) stolen by year

Source: Nigerian Newspapers, 2012-2022; Infoprations Analysis, 2022

Strategic Options

According to all indicators, filling station employees require better working conditions, particularly in terms of adequate remuneration. This is entirely dependent on the Petrol Dealers Association of Nigeria, the Independent Marketers Association of Nigeria, and the National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers. Based on current observations and facts about working conditions at various filling stations, it is high time for these associations or unions to recognize station personnel as key players in the country’s mission to clean up the oil and gas industry.

The industry has gone through a series of reforms and programmes to enhance operational efficiency and income for stakeholders in the upstream sector at the expense of those in the downstream sector, particularly attendants and managers. The Nigerian Labour Congress and Trade Union Congress should investigate the actions of some station owners who restrict their employees’ involvement in the activities of the Petrol Stations Workers’ Union. To put an end to different frauds, the job of station attendants and managers must also be subjected to minimum wage requirements and other labour laws. Seeing them as underdogs in the downstream sector will continue to exacerbate financial and non-financial irregularities in all parts of the Nigerian filling station businesses.

Capria’s VC Playbook Driving Tech Growth Across The Global South: An Interview with Capria’s Jack Knellinger and Loraine Achar

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In 2015, Jack Knellinger, having worked as a software engineer, teamed up with Dave Richards, and Will Poole to embark on a venture capital adventure. The trio discovered each other while working on some acceleration programmes. They were armed to teeth with passion for their goal. Their idea was to create a different approach to VC investments using fund managers.

So on their coming together, a company named Capria, which means, capital flow, was born. The name Capria represents what the three cofounders had in mind for their VC adventure.

Capria’s playbook was shaped by experiences that Jack, Richards and Poole acquired while they worked in and outside their acceleration programmes. Jack’s time at Ashoka, the global network for social entrepreneurs, undoubtedly sparked his entrepreneurship gumption that has notably propelled Capria to growth.

Seven years later, Capria has become a household name in the global tech industry, with more than $1 billion invested in startups across the Global South – Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia.

In an interview with Tekedia’s Samuel Nwite, Capria’s Partner/Co-founder Jack Knellinger and Loraine Achar, the company’s Investment Associate, overseeing its business in Africa, shared some insights on Capria’s playbook, investments, and the future of Africa’s tech ecosystem.

Seven years after Capria was founded, it has become one of the notable VC firms in the world: Would you attribute Capria’s success to your strategy of using fund managers?

Jack: Our on the ground investing partners are key to our ability to find and enter into deals that we might not otherwise have access to without them. By investing in and partnering with local fund managers, we are able to evaluate pre-screened deals that have been vetted, diligenced, and selected from amongst hundreds of other potential deals. Fund managers investing in Africa that we have invested in include Lateral Frontiers VC, Atlantica Ventures, and Global Ventures. These fund managers are a few of those that make up the global Capria Network which is the leading global network of fund managers from the Global South collaborating to deliver superior returns and scaled impact.

Our local investing partners, who are typically investing at the early-stage in startups, provide us with a strong funnel of companies from which we can select for early-growth investments.

As a woman, what has your experience been overseeing Capria’s businesses in Africa in an industry dominated by men?

Loraine: Capria is definitely focused on investing in local and diverse teams and our portfolio is evidence of that – 2 of the 3 funds we have invested in have female partners. There is definitely a lot that needs to be done in this area in the ecosystem but I am also noting the steps that are being taken in the market to correct this.

According to UNESCO, women represent 30% of professionals in Africa’s tech sector. This is above the global average of 28%. This growth comes from coordinated action to involve women and girls in tech and STEM fields on the continent. Initiatives such as Women in Tech Africa, She Code Africa, and Africa Code Week are equipping women and girls with skills and opportunities aimed at reducing gender disparity. Last year, Ingressive for Good (I4G) launched a ‘Women in Design’ programme, which awarded design scholarships to 1,000 women.

There are also firms that are coming up that will be focusing solely on supporting women-led enterprises: FirstCheck Africa, an angel fund for women-founded/co-founded tech start-ups bodes well for female tech empowerment and ShEquity, that is an investment firm that promotes women’s entrepreneurship in Africa, will invest in and support more than 100 high-potential women-owned or led businesses.

Capria’s investments in Africa appear to be centered on HRtech, logistics, fintech, edtech, healthcare and climate: Do you see growth opportunities in other industries in the African market? For instance, agritech?

Jack: We see growth opportunities in sectors that are critical to economic growth and that can withstand economic downturns. Some of the biggest challenges in Africa are: a large percentage of the population that is still unbanked or underbanked, supply chain issues, access to food, and affordable and quality healthcare. Capria’s portfolio, which includes investments in Paymob, TemApt, MAX, Sendy, WhereIsMy Transport, and SeamlssHR, are solving for some of these issues.

Did your experience working with Ashoka in any way shape the strategy that Capria is using today?

Jack: Capria’s strategy was largely influenced by the investing journey my co-founders and partners, Will Poole and Dave Richards, had throughout India in the early days of the development of the VC ecosystem there. The three of us had worked on various startup efforts about 5 years prior to starting Capria and we all strongly believed that in order to be successful in investing in early-stage and early-growth opportunities, it was critical to have an on the ground presence. From a personal standpoint, after spending time as a software engineer, I went on a series of entrepreneurial journeys and each one of those experiences allowed me to bring a unique perspective to what we’ve been building at Capria.

What has been your experience working with fund managers?

Jack: We have partnered with more than 20 fund managers throughout Africa, Latin America, India, and SE Asia. Collectively, they’re managing more than US $1B and investing across more than 30 countries throughout the Global South. About 50% of them are managers with existing AUM and the other 50% are first time managers. Since we’re a GP ourselves, we know first hand the challenges fund managers face and we look to bring our global knowledge and connections to the forefront, pulling best practices from not only our own experience but also from the experience of the other managers we work with around the world. We work closely with our fund managers across the nine different areas that comprise our proprietary Capria Quantum framework and that we believe are crucial to master in order to be a top tier investment firm.

Now let’s go back to the early days: How did the idea of Capria begin?

Jack: After my partners, Will Poole and Dave Richards, had launched an investment fund in India a few years prior to Capria they started to receive interest from entrepreneurs in other emerging markets who were seeking early-stage capital. India’s VC ecosystem was starting to come to life but it was clear there was a lack of local, institutional capital across much of the Global South. As a result, I came on to lead our initial discovery effort to see if some of our underlying assumptions were correct and figure out if there was an opportunity to pursue. We debated setting up a series of our own funds to unlock early-stage capital for entrepreneurs in other markets but ultimately determined that the scale of the opportunity required a different approach so we decided to invest in and partner with fund managers, then invest alongside them. By taking this approach we were able to much more quickly reach scale on a global level with reach across the major tech hubs throughout the Global South.

Your ticket size is $500k to $3 million for fund managers and about $1 million and above for startups, why do you have a cap?

Jack: We typically invest anywhere between US $1-3M in companies and between US $500K-US $3M in funds. This enables us to build out a well-diversified portfolio in terms of geographic spread and sector focus while managing risk.

What attracts you to fund managers and startups that you invest in?

Jack: We have a robust screening and due diligence process for investments in both funds and companies:

Fund Managers – We look to invest in local, diverse, and experienced fund managers that have boots on the ground and therefore have extensive local context and networks to enable them to support the companies they are investing in. We want to see learning agility, grit, integrity, and a track record of experience that complements their investment thesis. We’re also keen to support managers that are investing in early-stage opportunities (Seed – Series B typically).

Companies – We focus on companies that are providing essential services and products in their respective markets that are poised for growth and have achieved product market fit. Typically we’re looking at companies that are raising Series B though we’ll also evaluate mature Series A opportunities that we believe have breakout potential. While we are generally sector agnostic, we look to come into companies where we can add value and support them on their journey. From a sector standpoint, this means we’re looking at technology companies in the fintech, mobility and logistics, healthcare, agriculture, and education arenas.

Where do you see Capria in the next five years?

Jack: We’re in the midst of raising our next fund now (targeting US $100M+) and we’ll continue to invest in strong funds as well as the most promising opportunities in their underlying portfolio. Over the next five years, we anticipate our underlying portfolio (of Capria and the Capria Network) will grow to 500+ exceptional companies across Africa, Latin America, India, and SE Asia that will demonstrate what it means to produce strong financial returns and impact at scale.

 Your investments in African startups, especially in Nigeria, Egypt and Kenya, form a large part of your portfolio: Do you see a great future for the African tech market? If so, how much more money do you expect Capria to invest in the market?

Loraine: There is definitely a great future for the Africa tech market. We are already seeing signals of an evolving and maturing ecosystem such as: Second-time founders – more experienced founders – 3 of the 6 founders we have invested in Africa are 2+ time founders (SeamlessHR, WhereIsMyTransport and Sendy)

Startup founders becoming investors – most notably the founders of Paystack and Flutterwave have been investing in early-stage startups – so the cap table of a startup now has a combination of different skillsets.

Africa is becoming a source of tech talent:

  1. Leading to the growth of talent accelerators across the continent which aim to create new pathways to careers in tech in Africa. Such programmes can turn Africa into a pool for global talent in tech.
  2. Tech giants such as AWS, Microsoft, Google, and Visa – are also setting up bases in the continent, evidencing the growth of economies and startup sectors.

ASUU Extends Academic Strike in Nigerian Universities By Four Weeks

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It is about two days close to the two weeks ultimatum that President Muhammadu Buhari gave to the Minister of Education, Mallam Adamu Adamu, to end the lingering strike by the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU), which has crippled academic activities in public universities across the country.

There is yet no deal on the table to resolve issues of contention to end the five months old strike. Now ASUU has announced that the strike has been extended by additional four weeks, effective from August 1, 2022.

According to the statement made by the national president of ASUU’s National Executive Council (NEC), Emmanuel Osodeke, on Monday in Abuja; the strike is being prolonged due to the government’s inconsistency in honoring their agreement.

The academic union rued the government’s nonchalant attitude toward resolving the issues prolonging the strike. Among the issues to be resolved are; government’s failure to conclude the process of renegotiating the 2009 FGN/ASUU Agreement, deployment  of the University Transparency and Accountability Solution (UTAS), and payment of outstanding arrears of Earned Academic Allowances (EAA).

Read the statement below 

“The meeting was called to review developments since NEC’s resolution to extend its roll-over strike action by another 12 weeks with effect from 9th May, 2022.

“The NEC meeting took place against the backdrop of government’s obligations as spelt out in the Memorandum of Action (MoA) it signed with ASUU on 23rd December 2020. Specifically, NEC recalled that government’s failure to conclude the process of renegotiating the 2009 FGN/ASUU Agreement, deploy the University Transparency and Accountability Solution (UTAS), pay outstanding arrears of Earned Academic Allowances (EAA), release agreed sum of money for the revitalization of public universities (Federal and States), address proliferation and governance issues in State Universities, settle promotion arrears, release withheld salaries of academics, and pay outstanding third-party deductions led to the initial declaration of the roll-over strike on 14th February, 2022.

“NEC viewed with seriousness the recent directive given by the President and Visitor to all Federal Universities that the Minister of Education, in consultation with other government officials, should resolve the lingering crisis and report to him within two weeks. The Union wonders why it had taken five full months and needless muscle-flexing for government to come to the realization of the need for honest engagement.

“NEC acknowledged the growing understanding of the issues and the groundswell of support for the Union’s principled demand for a globally competitive university education in Nigeria. Nigerian universities must not be reduced to constituency projects that merely exist on paper and our scholars must be incentivised to stay back and do what they know best, here in Nigeria.

“NEC appreciated the historic nationwide protest of 26th and 27th July, 2022 organised by the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) in collaboration with Civil Society Organisations (CSO) to further create awareness on the antics of the Nigerian ruling class to destroy public education. ASUU renews its commitment to the struggles of NLC in championing the cause of the working and suffering Nigerians.

“NEC observed that non-signing of the draft renegotiated 2009 FGN-ASUU Agreement more than one month after it was concluded by Professor Nimi Briggs-led Committee is further tasking the patience of ASUU members nationwide.

“NEC further observed that the on-going trial of the suspended Accountant General of the Federation (AGF), Mr. Ahmed Idris, on allegation of monumental fraud has vindicated ASUU’s rejection of the Integrated Payroll and Personnel Information (IPPIS). The National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) is enjoined to release reports of the latest tests on the University Transparency and Accountability Solution (UTAS) vis-à-vis IPPIS without further delay. ASUU shall resist any attempt to truncate the deployment of UTAS with all legitimate means available to the Union.

“NEC noted that cumulative indifference by the political class gave vent to pervasive atmosphere of insecurity which now threatens seamless provision of educational services in the country. The unceremonious closure of educational institutions in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), following the recent attack on Presidential Guards, betrays a panicky measure to addressing a malignant ailment. Nothing short of a comprehensive overhaul of the security architecture of the country will sustainably address the problem.

“Following extensive deliberations and taking cognisance of Government’s past failures to abide by its own timelines in addressing issues raised in the 2020 FGN/ASUU Memorandum of Action (MOA), NEC resolved that the strike be rolled over for four weeks to give Government more time to satisfactorily resolve all the outstanding issues. The roll-over strike action is with effect from 12.01a.m on Monday, 1st August, 2022.”

A Key Global Company On The Path of US and China Battle for Supremacy

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The conflict between Ukraine and Russia will be a footnote if China and US enter into hostilities as a result of Taiwan, as Nancy Pelosi ( US House Speaker) is rumoured to be visiting Taiwan which China claims belongs to it: ‘U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi was set to visit Taiwan on Tuesday, three people briefed on the matter said, as China warned that its military would never “sit idly by” if she visited the self-ruled island claimed by Beijing’. China has warned and warned. If Ms Pelosi does visit and China takes kinetic actions, it would be a massive dislocation in our world.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is one of the main suppliers of the world’s most advanced microchips – used in everything from smartphones to cars to rockets – and factories. company is operating at full capacity to alleviate the global shortage.

“If you use military force or invade, you will make the TSMC factory inoperable,” he said.

“These are sophisticated manufacturing facilities. It depends on real-time connectivity with the outside world, with Europe, with Japan, with the US.”

Unlike Ukraine where the issue was wheat, Taiwan will bring the world to its knees. Yes, it hosts TSMC which is one of the most important companies in the world. It makes microprocessors and integrated circuits which power the modern economy.  If you cut-off TSMC from the global supply chain, economies will fade. I predict an immediate global recession!

We’re witnessing a new era as the world awaits – will Pelosi enter Taiwan and if she does, will Chinese warplanes escort her out of the Taiwanese airspace? And if that happens, will US warships fire on those warplanes? Pay attention!

U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi was set to visit Taiwan on Tuesday, three people briefed on the matter said, as China warned that its military would never “sit idly by” if she visited the self-ruled island claimed by Beijing.

Pelosi, who began an Asia trip earlier on Monday in Singapore, was due to spend Tuesday night in Taiwan, the people said.

Taiwan’s foreign ministry said it had no comment on reports of Pelosi’s travel plans.

[…]

One source told Reuters that the United States had informed some allies about Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Two other sources said Pelosi was scheduled to meet a small group of activists who are outspoken on about China’s human rights record during her stay in Taiwan, possibly on Wednesday.

The Fandoms of iPhone and Indomie Noodles – Winning via Innovation

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Steve Jobs, an Apple founder, was legendary for stimulating demand. He worked without surveys or focus groups. He was a genius, peerless in his generation. He saw an unborn future many years ago. He was an icon, who changed his world. He developed a good design paradigm of working at the #perception of customers, beyond their needs and expectations. He found glory, and Apple triumphed with iPod, iPhone, iPad and more.

The Perception Demand Construct is a product evolution strategy where you work on things which are not really evident to be in demand. Yet you go ahead to create that product, being confident that you can stimulate demand for it.

Ordinary companies work to meet the Needs of customers. Great companies work to meet the Expectations. Disruptive and generation-shaping companies transform customers by creating new bases of competition, where they turn customers into FANs, triggering perception demand and stimulating new market categories or sectors.

Products like iPhone and Indomie Noodles work at the level of Perception; both are revolutionary and evolutionary with fandoms in their respective markets. Pursue #fandom through market innovation. Until you can reach that mountaintop of Perception Demand, your leverageable factors cannot compound at scale. I share some components to explain the N.E.P of the thesis.

Needs Customers know what they want and look for them in the market. Many companies pursue to serve those frictions which are evidently known. For example, a customer wants electricity in Enugu Nigeria and an electricity company offers that via coal.
Expectations Customers’ needs have been met but they expect a new dimension of service. Consider an environmental activist who is being served with coal power in his house in Enugu Nigeria. Yes, even though the needs have been met, the customer will still be expecting to power the house with renewable energy source like solar or wind. Any day a company offers solar solution in that locality, at competitive pricing, that customer will possibly sign-up, disconnecting from the coal solution.
Perceptions The customer has never imagined or ever thought of this demand domain. The customer never conceived of the possibility or existence of this friction. However, the day, the customers see the product, the customers move in droves because the product clearly met their needs, exceeded their expectations and took them into a new domain by fixing their frictions. Most times, focus groups and surveys cannot capture perception demand because until the users have the products in their hands, they cannot make sense of the value. See my Harvard article in next section of this class note on how Verizon missed Apple iPhone, and Steve Jobs’ lack of interests on market study. The legend had posited that even customers do not know what they want! But when you give them the “next big thing”, they come to party. So, for him, the plan was to go into that esoteric level of creativity to stimulate latent needs only few like him could decipher, and turn the consumers and customers into fans. Greatness comes via stimulating and serving Perception Demand. On the pyramid, it sits on top because only few can get there.

Source: Tekedia Mini-MBA classnote

 

Response to a comment: Indomie invented sharp sharp (timely) fairly nutritious meal, saving you from the typical 40-120 minutes required to prepare a typical African food. Fofo requires at least 3 hours and you need more energy to prepare the food than the energy the food will give you upon consumption! With mortar and pestle pounding the fofo, you need energy to prepare that. Indomie has cut those off. That saves mothers time.