I gave the evening oratory during their 1st year anniversary. Gokada was “1” and was doing just fine. It was a great evening as emerging leaders in our startup scene came over to party. There was a drawing on the wall in the Ilupeju office: The Future is Green. Gokada had envisaged a future beyond bikes to boats, airlines, and more. I took photos and rode a bike: gentlemen and ladies, start your engines, and fix this transport friction.
But today, with most Gokada staff sacked and investors possibly to see about $6 million vapored (sure, Gokada has started a pivot), how would global investors look at that your pitch deck from Nigeria? Lagos state governor on The Platform last October promised never to do what he just did (see video below)!
With ban, the riders are home and their bikes parked!
Sure, new data can change policies. And that is the burden: Nigeria makes guessworks disguised as policies! If you use a certain size of bike for passenger commercial transport in Lagos, you should be (legally) fine. The regulation that makes it so has not been (publicly) updated (of course, a press conference did).
Unfortunately, that regulation was a product of a guesswork, with no data driving the decision making. It happens daily in our nation, feeding the pendulic somersault on policy revisions and reversals. If you cannot create your future, do not expect to predict it. And when policies become guessworks, investors, entrepreneurs, citizens, and workers pay the prices.
There is a big rumour (it is confirmed now) around Lagos that Gokada has sacked most of its staff . That is expected since with the commercial motorbike passenger ban, business will possibly stall. What is amazing is that Gokada is pivoting to logistics: they have an opportunity there. The only negative now is that the shippers (factories, ecommerce firms, etc) would own the market, as supply of logistics services will be huge; I expect OPay and Max to pivot to the same. With that excessive capacity, logistics will not save these three bike-hailing leaders as they have to cut costs to win businesses since the shippers are not growing that much.
“While much of your report is accurate,” the tweet reads, “we still have money in the bank and are pivoting towards deliveries while this transport ban gets sorted. We were due to make a profit in January before the ban was announced.” Fahim Saleh, Gokada CEO via Twitter
But you can also watch Lagos state governor promising not to do what he just did!
The movement of people and goods is one of the fundamentals that ensure economic growth and development. People need to be at different places at different times and applying various goods within transaction activities that enable them to create and capture value. This movement has been captured under different economic and social terms. In the business world, for instance, it has been dubbed recently as mobility as a service (MaaS), which allows the use of car, bike, boat among others by transportation service providers for the movement of people and goods.
The bike segment of the MaaS is being used mostly in the emerging economies, recent analyses reveal. Existing statistics indicates that the global ride hailing services market was $34.45 billion in 2018. This growth did not dip in 2019, it rather improved significantly as governments in many emerging economies struggled to provide enabling public transport systems. The growing urban population has also been fingered as a key factor contributing to the growth of the segment.
Like other developing markets, Nigeria is not an exemption of the challenges being faced by people and businesses in commuting and transporting their materials for production and consumption purposes, most importantly in Lagos, the commercial centre of the country and a key market for countries in West Africa region. From the administration of Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu to Barrister Babatunde Raji Fashola, the idea has been to make Lagos at par with other emerging megacities in the world. This was the single reason for initiating and executing policies and programmes across the sectors during their administrations.
Some of the policies and programmes impacted players in the informal segment of the transportation sector negatively, especially Okada and Danfo service providers, before the emergence of Max.ng, Gokada, Opay among others that came with the formality strategy. Existing information shows that the administration of Akinwunmi Ambode seemed did not bother about banning the providers, which was considered necessary by his predecessor (Babatunde Raji Fashola).
Joining the Babatunde Raji Fashola, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu announced the proscription of Okada and tricycle riders’ operations in six local governments, nine local council development areas, 10 major highways and 40 bridges and flyovers across the state. According to the government, operators need to be restricted and banned because of the increase in road accidents and traffic linked to their activities in the last few years. With the proscription, there is no doubt the Lagos market of the Nigerian bike-hailing sector is experiencing significant down considering the number of people relying on the segment for livelihood.
As at the time of writing this analysis, counternarratives and alternative narratives rage on the faith of the riders and owners of the businesses. Despite the narratives, it appears that government is not ready to change its decision. The government recently hinted that nobody has been licensed to run Okada services in the State. In the midst of the narratives, our analyst questioned existing data and those mined and analysed by us.
What Statistics Says?
Before the ban, individuals and experts, including academics have indicated that commercial motorcycles and tricycles contributed to the number of road accidents recorded in the State in the last few years. Our checks show that their position and government’s keen observation of the operators led to the full implementation of the Lagos State Road Traffic Law of 2012, which significantly contributed to the reduction of accidents being caused by Okada operators. The implementation, according to a Surgeon, reduced motorcycle accidents in 2012.
A study also found that a significant decline in motorcyclist fatalities following the implementation. “Motorcyclist fatalities fell by an average of 76% over the study period. Over 55% of the fatalities were recorded in five health facilities, located in an area of high road network density.” Our analysis, using real time data, equally suggests positive and negative connection between the Law and public interest in accident, traffic and Okada. We discovered that one percent of interest in the Lagos Traffic Law 2012 increased interest in accident by 15.5%, suggesting people’s knowledge seeking about the extent to which the Law could be effective in reducing accidents across the State. It was a 1.5% increase for the interest in traffic, while negative connection (-8.5%) of the Law with Okada shows that one percent of public interest in the Law reduced interest in Okada by 8.5%.
In 2015, the Lagos State Government, through a Commissioner, reported increase in the number of accidents involving commercial motorcyclists by 34% in four months. “We have started witnessing an increase since January 2015, both in reported death cases and injuries. Specifically, injuries in Okada related accidents have increased by 34 percent when compared with the 4th quarter of 2014. According to the Commissioner, the State was able to reduce deaths from 192 per year to maximum of six per year.
In 2019, a 4-year retrospective autopsy study of motorcycle accident deaths shows that 128 motorcycle death autopsies were recorded during the period with 96 cases (75%) before the law and 32 cases (25%) after the law. The frequency of head injury was 39.8% before the law and 43.6% after the law. The proportion of road traffic accident deaths due to motorcycle crashes was from 23.4% before the law to 11.2% after the law.
The Significant Implications of the Ban and Strategic Options
Exhibit 1: Typical Traffic Movement at 6am on select Highways by Lagos Government
Source: Google Map, 2020; Infoprations Analysis, 2020
Increase in traffic, unemployment rate and crimes have been cited as significant implications of the ban. According to Fahim Salem, Chief Executive Officer of Gokada, the company is not a job for many, but a means of funding their dreams. To him, the ban has killed the dreams and renders the riders jobless. On the part of the commuters, getting to different places as soon as possible now remains dream due to insufficient public buses and others for easy movement. The insights in this analysis have suggested that players failed to analyse government regulatory framework and social dynamics effectively before investing in the State, especially the indices associated with the past proscription.
The capitalisation on laissez-faire supervision of the previous administration is a strategic mistake that entrepreneurs should not commit in a State with the intent of making select cities mega ones, following others in the world. Nevertheless, there is a room for the players and government to work out modalities for prudential regulation to avert the possible consequences identified by the experts and individuals.
Exhibit 2: Typical Traffic Movement at 5pm on select Highways by Lagos Government
Source: Google Map, 2020; Infoprations Analysis, 2020
Social media is an essential part of marketing any business in this digital age. But sometimes getting to grips with the correct strategies can be a little confusing at times. However, we have created this short guide with some great tips for getting the most out of Instagram when it comes to marketing your business.
Tips for marketing your business on Instagram in 2020
Employing as many of the following strategies as possible is guaranteed to have nothing but a positive effect on your business marketing through Instagram. Also consider ecosystems where you can acquire followers if that will help your growth; for example, look for the best site to buy Black Instagram followers, if that is your focused segment.
Account: First and foremost, you should upgrade your account (for free) to a business account. The reason for this is that you will unlock a bunch of marketing features that are not accessible in a standard account. You will get detailed analytics relating to your posts, giving you the knowledge to know what your clients will interact with as well as the knowledge to create more tailored content.
Profile: It’s paramount that you spend some time crafting the perfect profile for your business account. You want a profile that instantly grabs the attention of anyone viewing it. Consider using an Instagram font in your profile bio that matches your brand. Using a fancy font will make your bio unique and make you stand out from everyone else. Also, be sure to select a clear profile photo with your brands logo or something users can identify. The last thing you want is potential customers leaving your Instagram page because they don’t recognize anything.
Post frequency: When marketing your business, it is essential to make sure that your followers don’t forget about you. By scheduling posts to appear on your Instagram stories at regular intervals (we would suggest once or twice a day), you can be sure that potential customers are getting exposed to your business. Setting up a posting schedule will also free up time for you to do other tasks.
Comments: It’s a good idea to spend a set amount of time each day engaging with your following to keep them interested and to show that you care about them. Responding to comments is a great way to spur the conversation and get people talking. Users will be more likely to engage with you if they know they will get a response, and it’s a great way to get feedback about your products and services.
Hashtags: Using appropriate hashtags in your posts is an excellent way to spur new followers and engagement on Instagram. Hashtags are used as a means to attract users from your target audience, so choosing the right hashtags is paramount. You can use up to 30 hashtags per post; however, we recommended that you keep this number much lower between 3 and 5. Using too many hashtags will make you look unprofessional and may turn people away.
Contest: If you’re promoting your new line of fashionable headwear or some type of service, then trying to run a limited time Instagram contest might be a worthwhile venture. Make sure you clearly specify the contest rules and remember to make it fun. For instance, maybe you will get users to download your Instagram photos and repost them under a specific hashtag using a funny caption. Then you can randomly select one of the winners and award them a prize. Try selecting a user with a large following so your brand can benefit the most.
Let’s sum it up
By staying on top of your marketing strategy on Instagram, you will notice that your stats raise, your following grows, and your business becomes much more successful. Social media is a great way to market your business, and with these simple tips, you can be sure that you are making the most out of this fantastic tool.
We all have moments of doubts – those are human and natural. They have asked you to lead a session in the company workshop, suddenly doubts set in. “I am not sure I am ready; maybe next year”. Unfortunately, no one was born a CEO, and every CEO or ED had a yesterday where he/she was none.
I give talks to bank CEOs, hedge funds, VCs, UN, etc. But I can never forget my first presentation before a legend. I had been flown to a really nice place in Washington state, United States. I was going to speak before the then richest man in the world, and a peerless philanthropist. Bill Gates is a legend.
To be asked to be in his presence was an honour. And to be asked to speak before some of the smartest human beings on earth was even amazing. But there was a burden: if a man makes an average of $1.5 million per hour, you cannot waste his time.
I developed a strategy; if they stop me before 5%, the Ovim Abia village boy has not grown. If before 25%, the Lagos guy needs help. But if I finish, it’s globally advancing.
I finished. Then, Bill came, “great presentation.” In days, his team followed – and I became convinced it was indeed “great”.
How do you prepare for big moments in your career? Do not waste precious opportunities where leaders can see you audition live. Understand the moments that matter and win them, in 2020.
Good morning. This is an update on our community service, Tekedia Mini-MBA. If you registered before 1 am Lagos time today, you must have received an email titled “Your Tekedia Mini-MBA Account Setup”. Please follow through and complete the setup. For new registrations, our team will batch account setup daily even though they will acknowledge payments immediately.
Meanwhile, we have community members who paid in the bank but are yet to send their emails. Your account setup cannot happen without an email.
Registration continues into Feb 10 when the program begins (click here to register). The digital board is already live. And if you have any questions, my team is always available to respond.
