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Home Blog Page 6785

The Economics of Chaos

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Try to visualize this hypothetical scenario. A hurricane is about hitting a town, and the government has issued evacuation warnings, thousands if not millions are leaving  the city, strapping alongside them what they need to survive the next few days in a nearby shelter. By evening, the city is fully deserted, but a group of bandits stay back to loot houses and retail outlets before eventually evacuating in the dead of the night.

The analogy above is a criminal act and is strongly condemned but we see it everywhere. We see militants taking advantage of failed states , we see marketers of petroleum products taking undue advantage of scarcity, we see business men taking advantage of controversial policies and then I ask,  what do all these events have in common? I think the answer is simple: People are taking advantage of chaotic situations. 

So the next questions are how? To do that, first, we need to ask these two questions,

  1. What is the immediate implication of this event?
  2. What is the following consequence?

A critical look at these two questions will provide insights as to what to do next to take full advantage of the event.

Question 1.What is the immediate implication of this event? Let’s take this for instance,that there is a sudden ban by the government on the importation of a staple food. The immediate implication of this ban will be that there will be panic in the market, and that the demand of this item will increase as people will want to get as much as they can before it becomes too late. 

As this happens, sellers will make more money by selling at a higher price though this is expected to be temporary . In countries where there is price control, this act could be illegal. So the reader is left with the moral question of whether it is ethical to do such. In a market where prices are driven by demand and supply, this is always likely to happen.

Nevertheless taking advantage of chaos isn’t about greed, rather it is about using events to your advantage. I know a very successful business man who struggled in his early years of business. One day he managed to get the information that the price of a particular building material which he sold was about going up. What he did next was critical. He sourced for funds from every corner and stockpiled this item until he was convinced he had enough. Months later when other traders discovered that the price of the material had gone up, knowing that there would be both scarcity and panic buying they started selling at exorbitant prices.

But this man was the only one who sold at the old price. As a result, when customers after having gone through other stores realized that he sold at the old price, they all started coming to him. Their assumption was that he was the only honest man in a market filled with greedy middle men.  That was how he built his customer base many of whom still patronize him even after many years.

Question 2. What is the following consequence?  If there is a ban on the importation of a particular staple food, the immediate implication would be the sudden rise in price but the following consequence will be that over time people will gradually shift to start consuming the closest readily available alternative,whatever that alternative may be. 

If the naira is in free fall against the dollar, the implication would be that the cost of imported items will increase, but the following consequence would be that it will be more lucrative to export than to import.

Three years ago(2016) at the heat of the Nigerian recession  when the naira was in free fall, the Government of Anambra State realized over $million dollars from the exportation of scent leaf alone. Could there be a better time to be an exporter than then?

Many human resources managers are taking advantage of the desperation and unemployment in the country. Many farmers are taking advantage of the ban on importation of rice, and many exporters are taking advantage of the naira-dollar exchange rate.The essence of this article is to show that taking advantage of uncertainty in the economy isn’t just about greed and selfish capitalism but that it can actually be harnessed in a positive way for the overall improvement of the economy of an individual or state .  Whatever the event is, boom or recession, import or export ban, inflation or deflation, peace or war, just see how you can make the best out of it, legally.

Nigeria has insecurity crisis – anyone that can solve it should do it, and profit doing so. Build private intelligence and data systems to help fix our security paralyses. That is chaos worth fixing and profiting from.

African Football FIFA World Rankings Update 2019

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AFCON 2019 has come and gone without much fanfare but it has been all change since my last posting.

Belgium retains the No. 1 spot followed by Brazil, France, England and Uruguay in the top-5 positions in the latest FIFA World rankings.

Runners-up Senegal has now moved up 2 places to 20th position in the World rankings. Tuniisia dropped 4 places to be ranked 29th jointly ranked with Northern Ireland. Third placed Nigeria has now moved up 12 places to 33rd position in the FIFA world rankings – a position it shares with Japan.

African champions, Algeria, have moved up 28 places, but only still ranked at 40th position, Morocco moved up 6 places to 41st position, and the AFCON 2019 host-country Egypt moved up 9 places to 49th. 

This is how the stacked up as of 14 June 2019 captured in my last post. 

FIFA Football rankings last updated 14 June 2019 places the  Confederation of African Football (French: Confédération Africaine de Football) ranking as follows:

  • Senegal (22)
  • Tunisia (25)
  • Nigeria (45)
  • Algeria (68)

It would be interesting to see how many African national teams continue to make it into the FIFA Top-50 World ranking list in the coming months that would end the 2019 calendar.

Effective Record Keeping in Small Firms Boosts Growth and Performance

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Big firms have inbuilt systems for tracking information relating to how they are operating. This is usually not the case among small business firms. That’s the necessity for this discussion. Deliberate attempt was made to keep the conversation simple.

Running a business firm involves entering into contracts and making transactions with different individuals, and group of individuals on a daily basis. These take place with the exchange of cash or a promise to pay cash.

As business transactions and contracts with different clients increase, there will also be a rise in incidents which can only be properly understood through proper analysis of how they have been occurring over time. These incidences is what is called trends. To facilitate trend analysis and reap the many rewards it promises, will require proper documentation of all relevant information related to business operation. There are several reasons why trends occur in business. We’re only concerned with those resulting from products and clients.

Trend in business is a revealer of so many useful insights which aid in making business decisions. This is why large firms and  intermediate companies have and pay kin attention to ensuring the efficient functioning of system of record keeping, for tracking down all relevant information, relating to the day to day  activities of their institutions. But farther down the line, at the level of micro/ small business firms, proper record keeping is largely a rarity for the usual reason of lack of adequate resources to engage the services of record-keeping staff, on the one hand. On the other hand, keeping proper records, to some entrepreneurs, is too time consuming, uninteresting and a thing to be avoided. 

For instance, one of the things an individual may feel strong reluctance to do, is to be making daily comprehensive records, showing details of all contracts with other persons and money made or expended, together with the source of the income and the reason for the expenses. This instance, explains the case of some entrepreneurs / small business owners. 

Not having sound business record is very costly for the reason that a business owner needs to understand exactly what he or she is doing as well as how the business is being affected accordingly. Given that the human brain has serious limitations with respect to accurate remembrance of past events, failing to maintain sound records of daily business operations, amount to disservice to oneself and one’s firm in the long run. 

How Record Keeping Grow the Performance of Firms

A business person knows exactly why he or she is in business. (This is without prejudice to classical thoughts on goal of a firm). However, for a firm to continue to exist and do business, it must commit to acquiring and serving increasing number of customers. It must also ensure it is making profit by doing so. These transactions, over time provide large volume of unorganized information which can only be adequately captured through documentation. A micro business firm needs good information to address myriads of business related problems, just as bigger organization does. Sound business record serves as a feedback, of which, when properly processed( or analyzed), provide details of how the various transactions entered into by a firm, has affected its performance. If the firm offers multiple products and operates in more than one location, the processed information obtained from records will equally reveal how each product or service line, operation base is contributing to business performance. Let’s take a closer look at these noted factors below:

Product profitability: Profitability is used to explain the extent of gain resulting from a product, service or event. Gain here means the positive difference one gets when cost of an item is deducted from the sales value of the item. When the documented information is analyzed, it will show how each of the products or services offered by a firm, is contributing to profit. When this happens, it will be seen whether or not some products or services are bringing more gains than others. If some products are simply yielding losses, that will equally be figured out. Based on cost consideration, a business person would find this sort of information very useful. This will lead to investing more on the products that bring in more gains. 

Client profitability: Careful assessment of transactions with clients over time, will reveal those who have record of persistent payment default as well as customers that it cost so much to serve. Among the latter category are customers that make small orders but maintaining them cause big ‘headache’. Another set of clients that will be revealed are those who are loyal in keeping to terms and in patronage. Information of this nature will guide an entrepreneur to formulate better strategy that will help him or her get more results for the effort made.  For instance, It may be decided that the firm, will do better by channelling greater energy to serving an increasing number of clients that bring in more gains at lesser headache. 

Sectional profitability: When cost of doing business in a place, and the associated performance, is compared with corresponding information from another area(s) of operation, this will reveal deeper insight about the extent to which each place of operation is gainful. That will guide a business person in deciding which areas should get more investment and which should get less. 

The Two Alternatives 

It should however be noted that whether a business person keeps records or fails to keep proper records, sacrifice is made. Keeping adequate records will require the discipline and time of a business person, or his/ her money paid to obtain the service. This’s the first aspect of the sacrifice. The alternative aspect of the sacrifice is to forgo having sound records of your business operation and make decisions without accurate knowledge of how your previous decisions fared. In this case, you’re willing to operate blindly and risk serious consequences.

Keeping good business records is a habit that all entrepreneurs should have. It helps a business person to take better financial control of company’s growth and success and will give an entrepreneur peace of mind farther down the line.

How to Ensure Effective Facilities Management Public-Private Partnership Model in Nigeria

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BHL Solution manages technical projects

On different fora, experts have suggested that Nigeria will only get it right in the area of sustainable economic growth when the critical infrastructure are in place for people and businesses. Over the years, various infrastructure funding deficits have been stated by the concerned stakeholders. Recently, the Bureau of Public Enterprises noted that Nigeria needs to invest $100 billion per annum for the next six years for her to close existing infrastructure gaps.

Indeed, Nigeria needs to make up critical infrastructure deficits in transport, power, education, agriculture and telecommunication sectors. But to professionals and players in the Facilities Management industry and others within the built environment, attracting funds and highlighting sectors that need urgent attention have not been Nigeria’s problem since independence. According to them, the issue has been the failure to engage private sector adequately in funding and maintaining public infrastructure.

In advanced democracies and emerging ones, a wide spectrum of Public-Private Partnership has evolved for the provision of infrastructure services for public use. Despite the PPP Department at the Federal Ministry of Works and the Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission, an agency established in 2008 with the mandate of developing and implementing a PPP framework for the provision of infrastructure services, industry players and experts remain resolute on the need to remove barriers preventing effective implementation of frameworks developed by the Department and agency.

Siamese Issues and Efficiency Enhancers

It is obvious that Nigeria has infrastructure problem. It is also important to understand that existing facilities are rotting because of poor maintenance culture. There is no doubt sustainable maintenance is an issue in the public sector.

From the World Economic Forum’s perspective, Nigeria is sheathing in the areas of quality of railroad, transport and port infrastructure. Local supplier quantity and quality were also the Forum’s concern between 2015 and 2018.  Nigeria is not only having quality of infrastructure issues. The country is also failing by not sufficiently recognising and appreciating FM roles. When government is ready to engage FM providers, paying premium prices becomes an issue. These were the positions of professionals who expressed their views on the place of FM in businesses.

On the FM provider-side, effective PPP Model would be difficult to realise if the sector continues having issues such as poor relationship with the clients, lacking insightful issues on the facilities before offering specific solutions and presenting unrealistic maintenance cost structure. During the discussion, it emerged that on-site FM managers do not have adequate knowledge about the presentation of specific budget to the clients. Presenting maintenance execution plan and managing supplies remain herculean tasks. These have re-established the existing fact that low skills and knowledge are impacting the sector. These among other issues are impeding the successful execution of varied FM contracts.

Beyond the contract execution related issues, the current marketing approach of key players in the industry would have little or no contribution to the proper understanding of FM solutions. Analysis indicates that existing solutions are being promoted on the companies’ website using conceptual approach. This indicates that the companies prefer simple description of the solutions to the classical structure, which allows categorisation of solutions based on their similar features or benefits.

Like other countries, Nigeria has unequal power distribution, strong relationship, decisive and assertive, unknown future, achieving quick results and optimistic about the future, though they like enjoying life when the need arises with financial strength, as her national values. When these were analysed along with the emerging issues and the position of the World Economic Forum, the results show that FM PPP Model’s effectiveness will depend on the extent to which stakeholders; especially companies address the issues using the right approaches and processes.

The ranking of the country’s quality of air transport infrastructure resonated with the values by 68.8%. Quality of roads and local supplier quantity also connected with the values positively. However, it would be difficult for the companies and government to maintain existing infrastructure and future ones without addressing the emerging issues along with some negative national values. For instance, the unequal power distribution value which emphasises the need for the subordinates to respect their seniors and that ideal leader or boss is a benevolent autocrat would impact the negotiation and eventual implementation of any PPP contract.

Source: World Economic Forum, 2018; Infoprations Analysis, 2018; Hofstede, 2019; Infoprations Analysis, 2019

Navigating the Negotiation Terrain

Analysis further reveals that FM companies must dissect and understand existing principles in the PPP framework developed by the Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission. ICRC expects companies to adhere and exhibit value for money, public interest, risk allocation, competition, capacity to deliver, transparency and engaging with the market principles during negotiation and implementation of any contract with the government.

Analysis of these principles along with the emerging issues from the FM provider-side shows that companies must ensure that their proposals to the government are laden with solutions that offer value for money and showing significant transparency level. Companies must also show their readiness to offer solutions based on public interest and establish their competencies and capabilities to deliver various FM solutions.

As the analysis further reveals FM companies have many challenges to contend with while establishing their readiness to offer solutions that commensurate with the cost in the public interest. Personnel in charge of bidding or contract negotiation must  be equipped with the best approaches to contain unequal power distribution, which has been found to be one of the country’s values contributing to systemic corruption and delay in finalising contract agreements.

In this regard, FM companies should foster strong relationship and provide documents capable of establishing their competencies and availability of the right resources to deliver the promised value. When the emerging issues from the FM provider-side are not addressed before initiating PPP, analysis suggests that government is likely to doubt the transparency status and capacity to deliver the promised value.

Despite this, there is likelihood that government officials would be optimistic while expecting quick results from any PPP contract. From the insights, it is clear that FM companies need to improve their processes and people before marketing FM solutions to the government through PPP Model. The future of the FM PPP Model looks good as FM continues growing as a business and discipline.

Why Starbucks Mobile App Has Lousy Security But Great User Experience

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I left this comment on my LinkedIn feed on a piece about GE and Access Bank partnership. This connects to my Double Play Strategy. I have edited and expanded it for clarity here. 

If you sell Toyota financing unit for passenger cars in U.S., Toyota revenue in the U.S. will drop. Yes, most customers will be unable to buy Toyota cars. With Toyota, you can get a 0% interest rate for five years if you have good credit. If you have a degree from some top universities, you get a 0% also as a fresh graduate. Less than 2% rate is typical. Not many commercial banks will offer you a competitive rate like that.

But if one crazy guy comes in and says Toyota financing is losing money and needs to be closed, he will be shocked within quarters. Yes, the sales will drop because even if it has outsourced financing to partners, none can be better than what Toyota gives for its cars. The key is making sure that Toyota bundles its risks into the pricing of its cars. But shutting down the financing unit would be an own-goal as they say in football (yes, soccer).

That was the basis of my point with GE and the selling of GE Capital in 2015. Since GE Capital was sold, GE is yet to recover. Of course, GE has other issues like buying Alstom and other heavy power properties. Interestingly, it needed to sell assets to have the capital to acquire those assets. But losing GE Capital exposed the company to inability to close deals faster since clients could not easily get alternative capital. I am not saying GE Capital was the only reason that messed up GE. GE did not see the emerging renewable energy redesign where power systems are getting distributed which means large turbines are not the future but micro-power stations distributed across communities.

That brings me to Starbucks, a coffee chain: it has the best retail app which keeps winning awards because it is easy to use. Yet, Starbucks app is one of the “least” secure apps in retail. Your points can be stolen but Starbucks will replace them overnight. Starbucks can make extra $1 billion revenue for that lousy security per quarter and spend $100k to replenish stolen points. (Of course the stolen points are used in Starbucks. So, it is giving away $100k which also counts as “revenue”). Wall Street likes the extra $1 billion, adding extra $2 billion in its market cap. It has used $100k to get $2 billion in market cap and sold a commoditized product, adding extra $1 billion in the bank. So, telling Starbucks to secure its app does not get the idea!

If the app becomes so secure that it is now not easy to get that extra $1 billion, it will lose the $1 billion and the pop in its market cap. I might have simplified this but get the idea; never think that Starbucks does not have good engineers to make the mobile app as secure as bank app!

Business is organic in nature. There is transfer of value in the mechanics of financing. If you control the source of money, you win markets and territory.