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The Intriguing APC Suspension of Governors Okorocha (Imo) and Amosun (Ogun)

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Pic.10. From left: Govs. Rotimi Akeredolu of Ondo State; Rochas Okorocha of Imo; Ibikunle Amosun of Ogun; Abubakar Sani-Bello of Niger; and Abubakar Bagudu of Kebbi, arriving for a meeting with President Muhammadu Buhari at the State House in Abuja on Thursday (4/10/18). 5369/4/10/2018/Sumaila Ibrahim/BJO/NAN

Politics just like business wins on addition. If you try to do subtraction, you score an own-goal which is a very bad thing. The news is that Governor Rochas Okorocha (Imo State) and Ibikunle Amosun (Ogun State) have been suspended by APC, Nigeria’s ruling party. Perfect timing!

The National Working Committee (NWC) of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has suspended Governors Ibikunle Amosun and Rochas Okorocha of Ogun and Imo States from the party.

[…]

Messrs Amosun and Okorocha have had running battles with the party after their preferred candidates for upcoming governorship election were rejected by the party.

Both governors are now backing the candidates after they defected from the APC to other parties.

For students of strategy, let us do some brain works here:

  • They have to be suspended after the presidential election because apparently they mattered before it.
  • They have done all things which ordinary citizens could have been kicked out of the party, but as governors, they have real influence on electioneering state machineries.
  • They allowed them to win Senate seats before the exits. But could not imagine losing the states because of their actions. To ensure the party keeps the states, they have to leave.
  • APC leaders are not stupid: if you control a state, your chance of winning a presidential election in that state, in my model, is close to 87%. This is planning for 2023!

Yet, there is no real suspension: after the gubernatorial election next week, Okorocha and Amosun will visit Aso Rock. The APC state flagbearers just want them out of the state machineries ahead of the election.  And the National Working Committee executed that. It is a smart thing to do because if given the opportunities to rig, you already know the people the (former APC) governors would prefer (the alternative candidates, the non-APC candidates they are supporting).

Simply, APC does not want to take risk by allowing Okorocha and Amosun in APC state secretariats or sending them as APC representatives near INEC offices next week as their voices would be that of Jacob even though the bodies may feel like Esau’s.

Also, in this day of suspension, APC suspended the minister of Niger Delta Affairs, Pastor Usani Uguru Usani and the Director-General of the Voice of Nigeria (VON), Mr. Osita Okechukwu.

BELOW IS THE FULL TEXT OF THE STATEMENT

    Anti-Party: APC NWC Suspends Amosun, Okorocha, Usani, Okechukwu

The National Working Committee (NWC) of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has suspended the Governor of Ogun State, Ibikunle Amosun and the Imo State Governor, Owelle Rochas Okorocha for anti-party activities.

Also suspended by the APC NWC over anti-party activities are the Minister of Niger Delta Affairs, Pastor Usani Uguru Usani and the Director-General of the Voice of Nigeria (VON), Mr. Osita Okechukwu.

This decision was reached on Friday at a meeting of the Party’s NWC, presided by the National Chairman, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole at the APC National Secretariat.

The NWC has also taken a decision to recommend the expulsion of the suspended individuals to the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the party.

The NWC would also issue a query to the Governor of Ondo State, Rotimi Akeredolu over his glaring anti-party activities, which greatly affected the fortunes of our candidates in the recently-conducted Presidential and National Assembly elections in the state.

Recall that the NWC had earlier written to the suspended governors on their anti-party activities, and several other steps were taken to ensure they desist from taking actions that are inimical to the interests of our party and candidates. Notably, these individuals have not shown any remorse and have actually stepped up their actions.

The party reviewed the serial anti-party activities of the concerned individuals before and during the last Presidential and National Assembly elections in their respective states and resolved to enforce party discipline in line with our constitution.

The NWC noted how the suspended members have continued to campaign openly for other parties and candidates that are unknown to our great party, even while they have constituted themselves as opposition to APC candidates in their respective states.

Importantly, the NWC is closely monitoring the activities of our members across the country, and particularly, in the states these suspended members belong to. We wish to reiterate that any member of our party who takes any action solely or in line with the directives of the suspended members to undermine our party’s candidates in the coming governorship and House of Assembly elections would face disciplinary actions.

We wish to congratulate our members nationwide for the victories we recorded across the country in the last elections and particularly, the renewal of our party’s mandate for President Muhammadu to continue to pilot the affairs of this country for another four years. This could not have happened if not for the hardwork and commitment of our members. We therefore urge all our members to unite and work ever harder to ensure victory for our candidates across the states in the coming governorship and House of Assembly elections.

Consequently, the NWC calls on our members to disregard directives and actions of the suspended individuals as APC would continue to live by the dictate of our constitution.

SIGNED:

Mallam Lanre Issa-Onilu

National Publicity Secretary

All Progressives Congress (APC)

The MasterCard’s $500 Billion African Prediction

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$500 billion.

That is the number MasterCard Foundation has projected the ecommerce sector in Africa could generate in a year by 2030. Largely, that will be roughly 20% of the projected size of Africa’s economy of by then. Except the hard number, there is nothing revealing there: the world of commerce will move online because the web remains the only infrastructure that reduces the marginal cost of doing many things at exponential level compared with whatever currently exists.

Yes, African commerce and trade will move online, because that is the final destination. In short, in a perfect internet economy, marginal cost becomes absolute zero which means transaction cost and distribution cost go.  There is no economic infrastructure sphere that can compete with that, and that is why the web is the future.

Yet, it has been bumpy, in Africa,  as the march to ecommerce has made many poorer than richer, from Kalahari to old Konga. But inflection point is on the way, as logistics, immersive mobile connectivity, and citizen re-orientation converge.

2022 will be the magic year in Africa for that Eldorado moment to kick-in, on ecommerce, because most of the challenges would have been curtailed.

2022 Will Usher The Era Of Wireless Nigeria, Africa

Lagos’ Fintech Startup TeamApt Raises $5.5 Million from Jim Ovia’s Quantum Capital Partners

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Another bucket of money arrives in the fintech space in Lagos. TeamApt, a payment startup supplying solutions to some leading Nigerian banks like Zenith, UBA and ALAT, has raised $5.5 million from Quantum Capital Partners, an investment firm founded by Zenith Bank’s Jim Ovia. The investor wrote the whole cheque.  According to the company, founded in 2015, it serves 26 African bank clients and processes $160 million in monthly transactions, growing revenue at 4,500 percent over a three year period. With this money, the company wants to expand into Canada and Europe.  And TeamApt plans another destination: NASDAQ.

Nigerian fintech startup TeamApt has raised $5.5 million in capital in a Series A round led by Quantum Capital Partners.

The Lagos based firm will use the funds to expand its white label digital finance products and pivot to consumer finance with the launch of its AptPay banking app.

[…]

TeamApt joins several fintech firms in Africa that announced significant rounds, expansion, or partnerships over the last year.  As covered by TechCrunch, in September 2018, Nigeria’s Paga raised $10 million and announced possible expansion in Ethiopia, Asia, and Mexico. Kenyan payment company Cellulant raised $53 million in 2018, targeted to boost its presence across Africa. And in January, Flutterwave partnered with Visa to launch the GetBarter global payment product.

Tosin takes on his former employer, Interswitch, even as Flutterwave, Paystack and others loom around. Many Nigerian companies largely funded this firm demonstrating that one does not need to raise money first if one can find a customer-investor!

“To start, we closed a deal with Computer Warehouse Group to build a payment solution for them and that’s how we started bootstrapping,” he said. A project soon followed for Fidelity Bank Nigeria.

[…]

TeamApt worked with Sterling Bank Nigeria to develop its Sterling Onepay mobile payment app and POS merchant online platform, Sterling Bank’s Chief Client Engagement Officer, CCEO, Moronfolu Fasinro told TechCrunch.

 

The Interswitch Bank Nigeria Ltd

The Challenge Ahead – Africa Must Prepare for Labour Dislocation by Technology

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I have received questions on the impact of technology and the future of labour in Africa after a piece this week. One community member noted that he will like to ask questions on that during my upcoming webinar (click to register). Yet, there are people on denial, disputing any elemental construct that technology can affect employment in Africa. Their core hypothesis is that a displaced person in one area can find opportunity in another field.

COMMENT: This argument is the same argument people were saying about computers when they emerged, that people would no longer need to or be able to write. It’s over the top and kids are still learning to write.

MY RESPONSE: Could you provide any reference: “would no longer need to or be able to write”. I am curious how someone would say that computers would eliminate writing. What people said that computers would eliminate typists, some secretaries etc because anyone could do those things efficiently and consequently would not need another person.

Yet, even on the writing, if you attended school in 1970s, 100% of your education and testing happened on paper.  Today, it is likely that only 50% on paper. Possibly by 2050, it may be 10%. That prediction on reducing writing is happening but no one said it will kill writing. Show me a job on this LinkedIn that has personal typist on it. In 1980s, a personal typist was a hot job – computer has killed it.

Finally, 100 years ago, more than 50% of Americans worked in farms. Today, less than 3%. That is automation at work. It does not happen one day!

Source: LinkedIn Feed

First, let me make it clear that Africa has about 2-3 decades ahead of it before we can reach the inflection point. You cannot run AI without electricity. So, our best defense is really that our infrastructures are not optimal.  That reminds me a conversation I had in Moscow, few years ago, where some hackers told me that hacking Nigerian banks was hard because the networks were always timing out! So, for our banks, the network being slow was probably a defensive mechanism! Of course, nothing like that.

Simply, we cannot expect to defend low-paying jobs in Africa because we do not have electricity for AI and robots to operate. If we use 65% of working population to mass produce hunger while America uses less than 3% to make enough to feed the world [if it desires], it is evident the game has changed.

Yes, while technology will cause realignment of careers, the fact remains that technology does not usually create as many jobs as it distorts. The paralysis in media business around the world because of Facebook, affecting thousands of jobs, is evident: Facebook has not created as many jobs as its impacts have lost worldwide!

This post has received the highest interests from African policy leaders. Simply, Africa cannot copy the Chinese developmental paradigm because what made China successful will not be relevant in this era because of AI. The cheap manufacturing jobs of the 21st century belong to AI and not human beings. So, anyone pushing the path of industrialization to create low-level jobs is already disrupted. Yes, a farm in England has no single farmer, from planting the crops to harvesting them. Simply, no one is sending you cheap labour from the Western world to Africa because machines will do them!

As I noted in a Harvard Business Review piece few years ago, GM in 1979 employed more than half a million workers in U.S. But due to automation, that number has dropped to 170,000 as at 2018 even though it is making more cars and serving more customers. After the recent cuts, GM may be about 120,000 workers in few years. Simply, it takes lesser number of people to make cars, and revenue per staff has gone up.

In Nigeria, the high youth unemployment cannot be uncorrelated with the continuous march to automation in our industrial sectors. With ATMs everywhere, banks are making more money with smaller number of workers and those displaced have not found jobs in other areas as those areas are also automating. The impact is one thing: mass unemployment. Certainly, we cannot go back to the old era of paper entries where banks employed legions of people and yet customers would waste hours in bank halls just to collect their monies.

All Together

Our continent must plan even though we have about 2-3 decades ahead of us. We cannot move into this era of immersive technology-enabled automation without a strategic plan.  If we just dance without a plan, we would certainly have growths but with high unemployment. Yes, competition is no more localized because the web has created a new equilibrium where labour can move easily across boundaries. I am scheduling an interview with a major global TV station to explain what we need to do. So, I will leave those points here. That interview is planned to take place this month; I will share the time ahead with the community here.

LinkedIn Comment on Feed

We still have time to get a lot of heads and hands busy, only if we can invest massively in infrastructures and then open the economy. You cannot have a population that is hovering around 200 million in Nigeria, while we have practically only three sectors (Oil and Gas, Banking, Telecom) with capacity to pay decent salaries every month, without defaulting. It’s a joke to think we can survive with such a narrow economic space.

There’s so much space for development, while we realign our education sector to deliver the kind of knowledge that is relevant in Industry 4.0. At the moment, we are nowhere, and we do not seem to be bothered; just politics, and more politics, nothing more!

Africa’s Cheap Labour Comparative Advantage Has A Major Disrupter: AI (Artificial Intelligence)

Nigeria’s Payment Service Bank Guidelines and Quest for Financial Inclusion

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By Chuma Akana

Recently, the financial inclusion programme of the Central Bank of Nigeria experienced a boost with the release of the guidelines for licensing and regulation of payment service banks in Nigeria. Some have cited this as a refreshing development, with potential to yield the desired financial inclusion results. Ostensibly, the guidelines intend that only entities with the right capabilities will drive the payment service bank sector as it attempts to make the field competitive.

It is worthy of note that the key objective of the regulation is to enhance financial inclusion by increasing access to deposit products and payment/remittance services to small businesses, low income households and other financially excluded entities through high volume low value transactions in a secured technology-driven environment. Previously, the CBN has sought to drive financial inclusion by the introduction of microfinance banking, agency banking and mobile money operators amongst others. However there is still much to be desired.

According to a 2018 report by the Central Bank of Nigeria, 37% of Nigerians do not have access to financial services, and this is at a time when internet penetration and smart phone penetration are on the rise in Nigeria, with 103 million Nigerians using the internet as at May 2018. More aptly, more than 66 million Nigerians do not have bank accounts or lack access to basic financial services. This deficit has led the CBN to introduce various policies to ensure that this number is drastically reduced and more Nigerians are banked. Also, this becomes more pertinent noting the fact that the informal sector contributes to more than half of the GDP of Nigeria.

The payments bank idea/model has been incorporated in various jurisdictions and climes, and is based primarily on the success of Mpesa in sub-Saharan Africa. A study by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation identified four reasons why Mpesa was hugely successful and was able to reach a level of penetration that banks in Kenya were unable to reach. One of the core reasons was the extremely high cost of transferring cash to the rural areas from the cities, there was also a perception of lack of safety in transferring such monies. Another reason was the high reputation and trust that Safaricom, a telecom company, had garnered over the years by the citizens, arguably more so than Kenyan banks. A third factor that enabled its success, was the fact that Kenyan banks were restricted from utilising banking correspondents beyond a certain distance, thereby limiting their scope of reach.

Perhaps the most important component that fueled the growth of Mpesa, was that for nearly five years, Safaricom enjoyed a monopoly because banks did not have branches in remote areas due to high costs and because it made Mpesa easily available by strategically tying up with those vendors who provided mobile phone services and recharge. When Mpesa was launched in 2007, there was no regulatory framework for mobile money operations. At that time, the regulator was confronted with two options: to allow for Mpesa to operate freely while keeping an eye on the evolution of the service, or to introduce regulations that may confine the development of the innovation. The regulator chose to adopt a relaxed framework, and therefore at the time, the Kenya Banking Act did not provide a basis to regulate products offered by non banks, and Mpesa was one of such very successful product. In November 2014, Mpesa transactions for the 11 months of 2014 were valued at KES 2.1 trillion, a 28% increase from 2013, and almost half the value of the country’s GDP.

As a result, Mpesa became the driving force in financial inclusion in Kenya. According to the 2016 FinAccess Household Survey, 75.3% of Kenyans are now formally included; which represents a 50% increase in the last 10 years.

In contrast, more than 3 years after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)) granted in-principle payments bank licenses to several corporate entities, the sector is struggling to come into its own. While a few of those companies have opted out, the others haven’t recorded much growth, due largely to stiff regulations including imposition of certain penalties to slow deposit collection and delayed launches, stringent know-your-customer (KYC) norms and a competitive banking ecosystem, according to experts.

The CBN guidelines provide that Payment service banks are expected to leverage on mobile and digital channels to enhance financial inclusion and stimulate economic activities at the grassroots through the provision of financial services through technology, and help in attaining the policy objective of 20 per cent exclusion rate by 2020.

The structure provides that the PSBs are to operate mostly in the rural areas and operate through banking agents in line with the CBN’s agent banking requirements, while they are also at liberty to roll out agent networks with the prior approval of the CBN. They shall conform to best practice on data storage security and integrity while ensuring that the word ‘Payment Service Banks’ will be part of their name.

The guideline provides that the Payment service bank permissible activities include; to accept deposit, carry out payments and remittances, operate electronic wallet, invest in FGN and CBN securities, while the PSBs are expressly prohibited from granting any kind of loans, any foreign exchange dealings, accepting any form of electronic value (airtime), as a form of deposit or payment and establishing any subsidiary outside the CBN guidelines.

The guidelines further opened the gateway for the participation of more companies as promoters including banking agents, telcos, retail chains e.g supermarkets, and downstream petroleum marketing companies, mobile money operators, fintech companies and financial holding companies. Where the entity is regulated, the entity must get a letter of no objection from its primary regulator.

The Payment service bank shall submit in connection with other requirements, a non refundable application fee of N500,000 and evidence of name reservation at CAC, further to which it may be granted an Approval-in-Principle. As at December 2018, over 30 firms had submitted name registration to CAC to be registered as payment Service Banks.

The requirements for the final license include non refundable fee of N2,000,000, CTC of certificate of incorporation, amongst others. There will also be a pre-licensing inspection to check the physical structure of the office building and infrastructure provided for take-off of the Payment service bank; sight the original copies of the documents submitted in support of the application for license; meet with the Board and Management team whose resumes had earlier been submitted to the CBN; verify the capital contributions of the promoters; and verify the integration of its infrastructure with the National Payments System.

The Financial Requirements for the Payment Service Banks include a minimum capital requirement of ?5,000,000,000.00. This is similar to the Payment Bank regulation in India where the minimum capital is Rs. 100 crore.

The guidelines also state that the provisions of the CBN code of corporate governance of banks shall be applicable to the PSBs and the Revised Assessment Criteria for Approved Person’s Regime for Financial Institutions shall be applicable to PSBs.

One of the challenges the payment service banks will face is in the area of ‘no lending’ as the PSBs are prohibited from any form of lending, and therefore the revenue stream may be limited, raising doubts over the model’s viability. The payment service banks also have restrictions with fund deployment as their investment is in stipulated government securities only. The guidelines states that PSBs shall maintain not less than 75% of their deposit liabilities in CBN securities, Treasury Bills (TBs) and other short-term federal government debt instruments, at any point in time. Another concern is the minimum capital requirement, which may be considered out-of-reach for some interested organizations.

The major opportunity for PSBs will be the sheer size of the market. To be successful, the Payment service bank system may require smart segmentation, both geographical and demographic, to offer tailor made products to bottom-of-pyramid (BOP), rural and unbanked Nigerians. Payment banks can also utilize the existing payments structure to move quickly, offer simplified payment solution and occupy a specific niche or segment.

The telcos should note that while they may want to participate in the round, because they have the advantage of a large customer base, the type of relationship they are trying to build with the customers this time is distinct, while for the new players, acquiring critical mass may be a tall order. It is apparent that banking as we know it is changing, and technology is poised to change banking paradigms. A payment service banking license gives the licensee a vantage position to view these changes much better and address them.

One thing is clear though, the success of Mpesa advises that regulations, particularly as it concerns technology, should allow for innovation, and be flexible enough to accommodate new changes. Conversely, tough regulations would not provide the necessary enabling environment, may stifle growth of the payment service industry and ultimately defeat the main objective of financial inclusion.