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Lagos Housing Market Size

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Lagos has 22 million population with 3.8m Lagos households earning more than $5,000 per annum. Lagos has 3.9 million households that earn more than US$5,000 or N1.83 million per annum, according to a report by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). This comes to an average of N152,500 a month. The number of households that earn above $5,000 per annum is projected to rise by 96.4 percent to 6.9 million in 2030.

Around one-third of 3.8m household in Lagos represent roughly the upper and upper-middle household income of about 1.2m household, the latter ( remaining 2.6m population) are mostly resided on the Lagos Mainland Market mainly within central locations that have close proximity to link roads and bridges leading to other locations particularly the Central Business District (CBD) of Ikeja GRA, Maryland, Anthony Village, Ilupeju Gbagada, Ogudu GRA, Magodo GRA, Omole, Yaba, Surulere while the former are resided in Ikoyi, Victoria Island/Lekki Phase 1 respectively.  These household segments have the interest and purchasing power that is required to acquire both upscale and medium-priced real estates.

Generally, asking rents for 3bedroom multiple family units on the Mainland ranges between N 1,200,000.00 and above while on the Island its ranges between a 1.8m, 10m  and above per annum, according RAC Nigeria.

Insights & Analytics

  • Defining Household Income today, comes with a lot of disparities and school of thought as revealed in a number of report from the renaissance capital/TNS, Africa Development Bank and Economic Intelligence Unit. Social strata that exists in Nigeria has its own peculiarity for instance some quarters have classified middle income class as those that earns average monthly income of NGN75,000-100,000 ($480- 645, or roughly $6,000-7,000 pa) while others put it 152,000 and above.
  • Upper & Upper-Middle Household Income are the most heterogeneous as compared with Middle & Lower class, Upper/Middle includes entrepreneurs of different class like the Small but growing businesses SBGB owners, Senior Managers & E-Class Executives, Directors/Founders, top politicians and heads of MDA’s.
  • Arguably Nigeria boasts of over 50 blue-chip firms operating in Lagos. These set of firms operate a globally competitive payroll, middle managers take-home ranges between N500,000 and N1.2m. The combination of these blue-chip firms employs at least 35% of (the 1.2m population that belongs to the upper & upper-middle household numbers that form part of the 3.8m household in Lagos) a workforce population that works daily in Lagos, which is put at over 420,000 workforces. The remaining population in this bracket 75% of (1.2m) people falls either within a self-employment, entrepreneur. Small but growing business owners, captain of industries/serial entrepreneur, facilities & equipment vendors, Suppliers/Import & Exporters at different bulk market like Alaba Int’l, Int’l Trade Fair, Ladipo Market etc, independent oil & gas marketers, Independent building contractors & Real Estate Expert, Architect and Engineers, Industrial Farmers, Manufacturers or Craftsman and woman that makes a least of N10m total revenue quarterly.
  • Other narrative that can reflect the household distribution in Nigeria is the shopping pattern and disposal income, the likes internet service and/or cable TV access. Cable TV, Car model & class, Social Affinity and Spending/Investment Orientation are all differentiators. There is a strong relationship between Household income and Internet & Cable TV access level, in Nigeria, DSTV has the largest market share in the Pay TV space with subscription ranging from N1000, 5400, 1600, 4000, 6800 up to N15,800, meanwhile the premium bouquet of 15,800 a month, is a bouquet mostly subscribed by the upper household income and a share of the upper-middle household, these population are resided within Ikoyi, Lekki phase 1, Omole, Gbagada, Magodo, Yaba, Surulere and GRA Ikeja, including Northern part of the country in Abuja, Kaduna and Kano. This is an indication that there is a high number of Upper and upper middle house income that resides in these areas.
  • Consumer pattern in figure 1 below revealed how the Middle House Income spend their disposal income on healthcare, ICT, Education, Water Utility, Transport, Clothing & Footwear, Food & Beverage, ICT, Clothing & Footwear, Health, Personal Care, Transport, Financial Service, Education, Energy, Others and Housing. Housing is third after Food & Beverage and Health at 14.7%, 35.6% and 20.3% respectively. Thus, real estate/housing is taking a large churn of the household income within upper and middle-income household annual spending and plans.
  • A high number of upper middle household live in leased/rented accommodation (68%) with an average household size of 3.7 people. The average number of children in each household is 1.6 (excluding those away at school) vs a national average that is closer to 3; larger families are more common in rural areas. Nearly half of the upper-middle have no immediate plan to move to a new house, 18% are planning to move to a newly completed self-owned apartment, others have desire to own a house or property but do not have plans or don’t really have know-how to go about this and those who have seen or heard about a number of real estate plans have not yet made a final buying decision.
  • The average number of cars per upper-middle-class household is 1.9 (around one third of upper-middle-class Nigerians have a car that is less than five years old); 60% upper-middle of homes have two cars. Car ownership remains a social symbol and prestige, among this class.
  • Nigerian Upper household invest largely in estates/assets, Oil & Gas, Equity/Share/Bond, Manufacturing, International Trading and/with future re-investment plans while the upper-middle class have a good saving culture, they care little about the deposit rate and don’t expects to borrow from a bank. If they had the funds, they would rather invest in land/or completed property than shares or bonds. Most do not have mortgages (which represent approximately 1% of GDP) or credit cards, though many expect to apply for the latter.

 

 

Map: Google Satellite Image 2018

Note:

Strategic marketing and positioning of real estate investment that is targeted at the upper and upper-middle household in Lagos, requires both online & offline location-marketing effort. This would eliminate waste in circulation and afford accurate visibility for prospective brands proactively. E.g a Facebook, twitter, Search Engine and Truecaller ads should be narrowed into all aforementioned location where this household are concentrated.

  • In 2017, only 26% of people used the services of a real estate agent. This year, the number will reduce further because of the growing (number of digital native young successful captains of industries, senior executives with top blue-chip firms and entrepreneur) population. They are tech savvy, urban and conduct their own research before making a rent or real estate investment decision.
  • Social affinity and extra-curricular places, that falls in these locations can also afford networking or where need be destination/hotspot co-branding for prospective realty brands. This are places people in this upper-class bracket as descried above, have good footfall and are frequently visiting with their friends and family at their leisure time. E.g. Strategic fuelling station or Hospitality place.
  • This household class are frequent users of mobile taxes such as Uber, Taxify & OgaTaxi etc within and out of the locations mentioned above, during the 5 working days and weekends, an alliance that affords an experiential marketing with this modern taxi operator can be a sales Growth trajectory.
  • Ad agencies designing the copies and motion pictures for realty products in this segment may need be sure of the most effective channel and social language to use by looking deeper into the above insights and understanding the pain points and concerns of this segment, and their behavioural patterns continuously to keep building the brand that whets their appetite. This segment of household are well learned people and rarely make impulse decisions on real estates, rather an informed or referral and thought led decisions.
  • Videos that depicts past similar projects success, testimony and learning or cases videos that lead a prospect to take-action, can also deliver an effective marketing and sales Growth using the Big 3 digital channels for realty brands (FB, LinkedIn and YouTube).
  • Organization of Seminars or attending high-level seminars in town, seminars and corporate event are usual spot, where this Household segments find themselves attending this kind of gathering at least once or twice in a quarter. This serves as a Consumer Touch point for realty brand to network and touch prospects with their products and promises, the population that fall into this space have strong believe for Seminars and workshop, so there is high possibility of closing deals and networking further at this venue.
  • E-mail newsletter is a powerful instrument to establish and maintain a long-term relationship with this type of audience. To achieve this, one need to collect emails from website visits and also genuine corporate email vendors or strategic partner, although one need ensure what is been send falls into their concerns/pain point not just direct marketing designs or contents. Like sending them information on a new property on the market and tips that help them make better decisions.

Blockchain Banking in Nigeria; Paystack’s N10 Billion Milestone

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It seems it is (nearly) here  – Interswitch with Microsoft is unveiling blockchain banking in Nigeria. And three key banks (GTBank, UBA and Zenith Bank) and the alpha conglomerate (Dangote) are part of the party. Sure, they did not mention banking; it remains a blockchain service. But when you have the leading banks supporting the initiative, it is safe to extrapolate that banking would be part of the applications.

According to CNBC Africa, the focus at the moment is improving processes for supply chain. But I promise you that it would move from supply chain to payment and more. When you provide a service for trade services and financing, you are supporting one of the most critical elements in banking. Over time, there would be more integration and just like that, we would have blockchain banking in Nigeria. (Personally, it will not do much as the challenges we face in Nigerian banking cannot be fixed by technology alone. So, whether blockchain or not, for a very long time, it is going to be all the same.) Certainly, Interswitch has gotten over its hangover and innovating at scale.

Interswitch is exploring a blockchain-based supply chain financing service in partnership with Microsoft Azure that aims to digitise the process between corporates and banks when providing trade financing to entrepreneurs and business owners in the Supply Chain sector. Akeem Lawal, Divisional Chief Executive Officer, Payment Processing at Interswitch, joins CNBC Africa for more insight on this platform.

It surely needs to do that because companies like Paystack are coming: the startup just hit $28 million monthly transaction volume in Nigeria.

In mid-2017, we shared that for the first time, customers were using Paystack to pay over N1 billion in monthly transaction value to Paystack merchants. …

A year and three months later, we’re thrilled to announce that we’ve hit our next transaction milestone: customers are now using Paystack to pay over N10 billion naira (~$27.5 million) to Nigerian merchants, every month.

 

Why Amazon is Google’s Main Competitor

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Google-Headquarters
Google-Headquarters

Thanks for the great comments and questions on the piece on the future of advertising business. I wish I can share my slide but that will not happen, unfortunately. To help understand my thesis, on ad business, one has to look at tangential competitors and not just the typical industrial peers.

Yes, I had explained that the biggest competitor to Google is Amazon and not Facebook, Twitter or Baidu (as most posit). Why? Google makes most of its money from digital advertising and the industry that dominates digital advertising is retail. Today, Amazon controls about 49% of that market (ecommerce sales). So, as Amazon expands, natural ad customers to Google would struggle and that would imply deteriorating revenue, for Google, from that category. For every Sears that dies because of Amazon’s competition, Google loses (potential) revenue to Amazon. For Google to thrive, it has to find ways to slow Amazon in that trajectory.

The timeline presents U.S. retail industry advertising spending from 2010 to 2019. The source projected that the spending would amount to 23.5 billion U.S. dollars in 2018 and further grow to exceed 23 billion in 2019. Retail is the industry with largest digital ad spend in the U.S., followed by automotive and financial services. Across industries, digital ad spending is going to amount to nearly 83 billion U.S. dollars in 2017 and 113.2 billion in 2020.
Amazon controls 49% of U.S. ecommerce sales (source: TechCrunch)

Amazon is really a very formidable company as it remains one of the few companies in the world with a product where all stacks and elements are controlled by one firm. I have recognized Amazon Echo as the zenith of all products as from browser, OS, computing device, retail shop, etc, Amazon controls all to the doorstep of the customer. Yes, Amazon does not share any level of stack with any other entity; all is in-house and under its care. If that product scales, every other technology firm is imperiled. (Microsoft makes OS and browser but it needs Dell and HP for the computers; Facebook needs browsers and OS; Google needs a retail platform despite all investments in many areas. But Amazon Echo needs no other entity to the doorstep of customers!)

Amazon runs ads for merchants in its platform

Besides, Amazon has built one of the best retail advertising businesses in the world where it is now collecting billions of dollars yearly from merchants. Google gives you web visits; Amazon delivers sales because advertising on Amazon means you are reaching people already in the mode to BUY unlike Google where ads are shown to people not in shopping mood (think of showing toothpaste ads to a student researching on chemicals in toothpastes). Largely, on Amazon, the chance is that searching toothpaste has a higher chance the person wants to buy one. So, merchants see more sales conversions for ad money spent on Amazon search. That is a huge challenge for Google.

Facebook has walled off the partying and events communities, and if Amazon takes care of the merchandise, I do not know what will remain for Google. Yes, we put adverts for two major things: events and products. If Google becomes a second-platform for both, there is a problem for Larry Page and his lieutenants in Alphabet, the parent to Google.

This may explain why Google is not showing friendly handshake to Amazon these days. Amazon is not just attacking  Google, it is going to the heart of its business which is advertisement. As Sun Tzu put it in The Art of War: you must defend your flanks to win. Indeed, Google has a war to fight.

All Together

Industry competition will continue to evolve. In ten years, how many merchants will spend money for TV when they can put that money in Jumia and Konga to reach customers more efficiently? There would be massive shifts; to thrive, companies must adapt. Yes, Microsoft made about $1.7 billion from Bing, its search engine, last year. But Google will likely pay Apple $9 billion  this year (to expand to $12 billion later) to have Google as the default search engine in Apple products. Yet, Apple has no search business but making multiples ahead of what Microsoft makes. For Google to pay that to own that space on Apple products is a testament on the tenacious nature of modern ad business: no one is safe!

LinkedIn Summary of this Piece

Great comments and questions on the piece on advertising business evolution. To help understand my thesis, on ad business, one has to look at tangential competitors and not just the typical industrial peers.

Yes, I had explained that the biggest competitor to Google is Amazon and not Facebook, Twitter or Baidu (as most posit). Why? Google makes most of its money from digital advertising and the industry that dominates digital advertising is retail. Today, Amazon controls about 49% of that market (ecommerce sales).

So, as Amazon expands, natural ad customers to Google would struggle and that would imply deteriorating revenue, for Google, from that category. For every Sears that dies because of Amazon’s competition, Google loses (potential) revenue to Amazon. For Google to thrive, it has to find ways to slow Amazon in that trajectory.

Besides, Amazon has the best search, created and engineered for buying things. Google gives you web visits; Amazon delivers sales because advertising on Amazon means you are reaching people already in the mode to BUY unlike in Google where a researcher (not in shopping spirit) may see ads . Plus, the Amazon Echo, the first end-to-end stack product, ever, by one firm!

Three Factors That Improve Business Financial Performance

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The following three factors determine a company’s financial performance more than any other thing: customer insights, talent and processes. I explain in this video. Also, the amount of money you spend on R&D does not necessarily mean that you would thrive financially. The key is having a balance in all these rituals of business decision making.

 

 

How Nigerian Startups are Winning – The Nativity Design Construct; Kobo360 and Cars45

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I can greet very well in Hausa up to five exchanges (you know, it can keep cascading). When I do that, I make sure you understand that it had taken me real efforts to master those greetings. Then, we will smile, and my host would ask me how I learnt those. Magically, I have neutralized any tension that may possibly exist. I have never greeted any host while in the northern part of our nation with English! Language is the most native element to connect with clients and partners.

In my teachings with startups in our advisory business, I have called that Nativity Design Construct. It is a way of looking at business from the angle of the customers by making sure that you deliver solutions and services within the natural nexus of the users, eliminating any possible assimilation friction.

Kobo360 adds pidgin in its app for driver section

As I wrote in a piece many years in Harvard Business Review, best global leaders are typically best local leaders because all businesses are local.

Future global leaders must be those who can develop local leaders with the ability to execute company-wide plans, across nations and regions, at the local level. Commerce is still communal in nature, regardless of the sophistication of the product or service. Intangibles like local fashion, language, and cultural norms must not be taken for granted at the physical interface where brands connect with customers.

Interestingly with the unbounded and unconstrained Internet distribution capabilities, every web business is global even when local. Largely, being a small web company in Lagos does not hide you from the competitive challenge from premier digital companies in Silicon Valley, Tokyo and London. So, to win, you must accelerate your GloCalization: ‘Glocal, an adjective, by definition, is “reflecting or characterized by both local and global considerations”’.

What Smart Nigerian Companies are Doing

Winning and thriving on the web will require new game plans because of the winner-takes-all philosophy. The domination from Google and Facebook will be existential if any indigenous company combats those firms frontally. As I noted in this Harvard Business Review article, the key is looking for ways to “gain a competitive edge over global companies”. Yes, you must differentiate in ways that no foreign ICT utility can automate out your business processes and models. And they cannot scale without hitting a roadblock as they plot to take you out.

Indeed, you have built moats by design and no company can easily overcome the relationships you have with customers and partners via software alone. No foreign software can “eat” that business model. For them to win, the competitors must have natives to compete if they expect to thrive.

Two Cases on Nativity Design Construct

Kobo360 is a digital trucking aggregator. It has a platform which links cargo owners and truckers together. There are many things in the ways Kobo360 engineered its mobile app which is totally fresh, and native. Truck drivers see Pidgin English as most of them speak pidgin. You see “U don reach”, “We dey wait”, etc for the app. But at the same time, Kobo360 institutional partners like blue chip  Olam, Flour Mills and Dangote see the typical Queen’s English.

Largely, if you are competing against Kobo and you think it has an app alone, you are wrong. This company has built intricate linguistic innovations which make drivers, partners etc natively communicate in the natural ways they have done business without forcing anyone to change style because it has an app! This is why the firm is growing; World Bank’s IFC had called.

Cars45: What this company does is simply indigenous.  It has hybridized car buying in ways no company can take it without doing what it has done. How many times do you see websites selling cars in Nigeria? Its business model has provided a solid moat for survival. Cars45 promises to buy, sell, rate or price your used car within 45 minutes. Innovation is not just about technology. Cars45 is innovating on business model. Hybrid is in the gene and Cars45 is a category-king company.

Visit last month to Cars45

All Together

Winning as a local company in a globalized world will require doing many things differently. You must discover your nativity design which is necessarily going to provide the moats you need to “avoid” global ICT utilities like Google and Facebook. Those elements could be simple things like how Kobo app works, mixing languages in ways that a truck driver will not have to learn Queen’s English but can continue with pidgin which most truckers speak.