As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fourth month, the impact has continued to be felt around the world as economies battle to tame inflation emanating from it.
Food shortage and high cost of oil prices have characterized the global economy since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24 2022. Now the war is widening its impact on economies that the fear of global recession can no longer be excused.
On Tuesday, the World Bank slashed its global growth forecast by nearly a third to 2.9% for 2022, warning that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has compounded the damage from the COVID-19 pandemic, and many countries now face recession.
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Reuters reports below on the World Bank’s global economy forecast, what it will mean for each region, and what policymakers need to do to curtail it.
The war in Ukraine had magnified the slowdown in the global economy, which was now entering what could become “a protracted period of feeble growth and elevated inflation,” the World Bank said in its Global Economic Prospects report, warning that the outlook could still grow worse.
In a news conference, World Bank President David Malpass said global growth could fall to 2.1% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023, driving per capita growth close to zero, if downside risks materialized.
Malpass said global growth was being hammered by the war, fresh COVID lockdowns in China, supply-chain disruptions and the rising risk of stagflation — a period of weak growth and high inflation last seen in the 1970s.
“The danger of stagflation is considerable today,” Malpass wrote in the foreword to the report. “Subdued growth will likely persist throughout the decade because of weak investment in most of the world. With inflation now running at multi-decade highs in many countries and supply expected to grow slowly, there is a risk that inflation will remain higher for longer.”
Between 2021 and 2024, the pace of global growth is projected to slow by 2.7 percentage points, Malpass said, more than twice the deceleration seen between 1976 and 1979.
The report warned that interest rate increases required to control inflation at the end of the 1970s were so steep that they touched off a global recession in 1982, and a string of financial crises in emerging markets and developing economies.
Ayhan Kose, director of the World Bank unit that prepares the forecast, told reporters there was “a real threat” that faster than expected tightening of financial conditions could push some countries into the kind of debt crisis seen in the 1980s.
While there were similarities to conditions back then, there were also important differences, including the strength of the U.S. dollar and generally lower oil prices, as well as generally strong balance sheets at major financial institutions.
To reduce the risks, Malpass said, policymakers should work to coordinate aid for Ukraine, boost production of food and energy, and avoid export and import restrictions that could lead to further spikes in oil and food prices.
He also called for efforts to step up debt relief, warning that some middle-income countries were potentially at risk; strengthen efforts to contain COVID; and speed the transition to a low-carbon economy.
The bank forecast a slump in global growth to 2.9% in 2022 from 5.7 percent in 2021, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from its January forecast, and said growth was likely to hover near that level in 2023 and 2024.
It said global inflation should moderate next year but would likely remain above targets in many economies.
Growth in advanced economies was projected to decelerate sharply to 2.6% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023 after hitting 5.1% in 2021.
U.S. growth was seen dropping to 2.5% in 2022, down from 5.7% in 2021, with the euro zone to see growth of 2.5% after 5.4%.
Emerging market and developing economies were seen achieving growth of just 3.4% in 2022, down from 6.6% in 2021, and well below the annual average of 4.8% seen in 2011-2019.
China’s economy was seen expanding by just 4.3% in 2022 after growth of 8.1% in 2021.
Negative spillovers from the war in Ukraine would more than offset any near-term boost reaped by commodity exporters from higher energy prices, with 2022 growth forecasts revised down in nearly 70% of emerging markets and developing economies.
The regional European and Central Asian economy, which does not include Western Europe, was expected to contract by 2.9% after growth of 6.5% in 2021, rebounding slightly to growth of 1.5% in 2023. Ukraine’s economy was expected to contract by 45.1% and Russia’s by 8.9%.
Growth was expected to decelerate sharply in Latin America and the Caribbean, reaching just 2.5% this year and slowing further to 1.9% in 2023, the bank said.
The Middle East and North Africa would benefit from rising oil prices, with growth seen reaching 5.3% in 2022 before slowing to 3.6% in 2023, while South Asia would see growth of 6.8% this year and 5.8% in 2023.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth is expected to slow somewhat to 3.7% in 2022 from 4.2% in 2021, the bank said.
As long as we keep calling people who cannot manage their own individual lives ‘world leaders’, expect more surprises.
We have an interesting scenario, which our obviously confused leaders didn’t correctly predict, and neither do they know where to go from here; maybe some miracles will need to happen.
Putin and Russia cannot back down and leave Ukraine, because that would look like a defeat, and no one enjoys being humiliated.
Zelensky and Ukraine cannot surrender, because it means that they just wasted everyone’s time, allowed their cities and economy to be destroyed, only for them to surrender.
The guys hammering sanctions on Russia cannot stop, because it will portray them as being weak, ineffective and immoral; so as they contemplate more sanctions they also need to ratchet up weapons supply to Ukraine, to keep things going.
Who did the scenario modelling and were convinced that the world was ready for all the confusions? We thought that real economies are measured by capital markets and GDP size, now you know that the things are not that straightforward, only that we never learn.
This is just Russia, and we are shaking like this, what happens if China goes to war and sanctions are hammered? It’s rest in peace then.