Polymarket, the leading crypto-based prediction market platform, quietly relaunched its services in the United States through a closed beta program, allowing select users to place real-money bets on live event contracts for the first time since 2022.
This soft launch follows the company’s acquisition of the regulated derivatives exchange QCEX earlier in the year, which provided the necessary CFTC-compliant infrastructure after a $1.4 million fine forced Polymarket offshore three years prior.
Founder Shayne Coplan confirmed the beta is “live and operational” during a panel at Cantor Fitzgerald’s Crypto & AI Infrastructure Conference in Miami, with a full public rollout slated for early 2026.
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Key Partnership with Yahoo Finance
Coinciding with the beta relaunch, Polymarket announced an exclusive partnership with Yahoo Finance, positioning itself as the platform’s sole provider of prediction market data and insights.
This integration will deliver real-time betting odds and crowd-sourced forecasts directly to Yahoo Finance users, enhancing event-based forecasting tools for topics like politics, sports, and finance.
The deal underscores Polymarket’s growing mainstream adoption, building on recent integrations with Google Finance which will display Polymarket data in its AI tools starting with Labs users and X. Polymarket’s US return comes amid surging demand for prediction markets, fueled by high-profile events like the 2024 US election.
The platform, which operates like a decentralized stock exchange for event outcomes using USDC on Polygon, has seen explosive growth—handling over $1 billion in volume during the election cycle.
To strengthen its foothold, especially in sports betting, Polymarket also partnered with fantasy sports giant PrizePicks just days before the Yahoo deal, enabling seamless data sharing for user predictions.
This positions Polymarket to compete directly with licensed rivals like Kalshi and emerging products from FanDuel and even Truth Predict backed by Donald Trump’s media company. Early focus will be on sports markets, with clearing arrangements already in place for DraftKings’ upcoming predictions feature.
Beta access is limited to invited US users via Polymarket’s app or web platform—expect invites to expand soon. Non-US users can continue trading uninterrupted. By leveraging QCEX’s licenses, Polymarket avoids past pitfalls, emphasizing compliance while maintaining its crypto-native speed and low fees.
Prediction markets are evolving from niche betting to “wisdom of the crowd” tools for finance and news, with Polymarket’s partnerships amplifying this shift.
Prediction markets are real-money betting platforms that let people trade contracts on the future outcome of events — elections, sports games, economic data, or even “Will it rain in NYC on Friday?” — and the market prices reveal the crowd’s best guess of the probability.
Core Idea: Price = ProbabilityA contract pays $1 if the event happens, $0 if it doesn’t. If a “Trump wins 2024” contract trades at $0.60, the market says 60% chance he wins. If it drops to $0.35, the crowd now thinks 35% chance.
That’s it. The price is the probability. Event is listed. Example: “Will the Fed cut rates by 50bps on Nov 7?”. Two contracts are created YES (pays $1 if cut happens). NO (pays $1 if it doesn’t). Users buy/sell shares You believe cut is >70% likely ? buy YES at $0.60.
You believe cut is <30% likely ? buy NO at $0.40. You can sell anytime before expiry. Price moves with supply/demand More buyers ? YES price rises ? implied probability ? More sellers ? YES price falls ? probability ? Event resolves Fed cuts 50bps ? YES = $1, NO = $0
Winners get $1 per share, losers get $0. Example Trade (Polymarket-style). Fed holds ? get $100 ? $55 profit. People bet real money ? they research, think hard, and act fast. Incentives align truth-seeking Overconfident? You lose money. Undervalued insight? You profit.
Aggregate wisdom; Thousands of traders ? noise cancels, signal emerges. Faster than polls. Markets react instantly to news (leaks, tweets, data). 2024 Election Example: Polymarket flipped from 60% Trump ? 70% Trump hours before polls caught up — because insiders and sharp bettors moved first.
Prediction markets turn opinions into prices. You bet on outcomes. The price shows the crowd’s probability. At expiry, winners get $1, losers get $0. Truth wins — and so do the sharpest bettors.
Think of it like stock market for events, where shares = probability, and profit = being right when others are wrong.