The global oil market could remain under pressure for years even after the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser warned Monday, saying it could take as long as two years to rebuild inventories depleted by the U.S.-Iran war.
Nasser’s warning highlights a growing risk for energy markets: the damage from a prolonged disruption to oil flows cannot necessarily be reversed as soon as shipping resumes. Global inventories can be drawn down rapidly when supplies are interrupted, but rebuilding those stocks requires sustained production and exports above consumption, leaving the market exposed to further shocks in the meantime.
Speaking at the Energy Intelligence conference in London, Nasser said pressure at both ends of the oil market would intensify until the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz fully reopens and confidence returns to energy markets.
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The narrow waterway normally handles about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, making the disruption one of the most consequential energy shocks in years. Restrictions on shipping through the strait have rippled through crude markets and raised concerns over the availability of fuel and the ability of consuming economies to replace lost supplies.
“Even then, replenishing inventories while meeting demand could take up to two years,” Nasser said, according to Reuters.
The warning comes days after G7 governments agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves following pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump. The move is intended to provide additional supply to markets facing the consequences of the conflict and disrupted Middle East energy flows.
The G7 comprises France, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, with France currently holding the group’s presidency. The European Union also participates in its meetings.
But emergency stock releases can only cushion the market temporarily. They do not replace the underlying barrels that have been lost from global supply, particularly if the conflict continues to disrupt production, exports and shipping.
Oil Losses Are Already Straining The System
Nasser said almost 3 billion barrels of oil supply had been lost since the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes on Iran in late February. Around 1 billion barrels of oil have been released from inventories to compensate for some of that shortfall.
The scale of those figures underscores why rebuilding global stocks could take considerably longer than restoring physical shipping routes. Most of the inventory drawdown so far has come from commercial stocks, rather than emergency reserves, meaning the market has already been absorbing the supply shock through barrels that would otherwise have remained available to refiners and consumers.
Nasser said roughly 6 billion barrels of oil remain in storage globally, but argued that much of that volume is not realistically accessible to the market.
“The system is already straining,” he said.
That distinction is important for assessing the apparent size of global oil inventories. A headline inventory figure does not necessarily represent the amount of crude that can immediately be brought to market. Some oil is tied up in operational requirements, strategic holdings, or locations and grades that make it difficult to substitute for disrupted supplies.
The longer the conflict continues, the more difficult that distinction becomes. Refiners need crude continuously, while consumers continue to demand gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other petroleum products. If production and exports remain constrained, inventories become the buffer between available supply and consumption.
Once that buffer has been substantially depleted, even a relatively small additional disruption can produce a disproportionately large reaction in prices.
The market showed some signs of relief Monday as Middle East crude exports increased, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline reportedly trending higher. Oil prices consequently moved modestly lower.
Brent crude futures for December delivery were down 0.1% at $102.20 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for November delivery were 0.5% lower at $90.64.
The modest decline in prices suggests traders were responding to improving physical flows, but it does not eliminate the longer-term inventory problem outlined by Nasser.
Saudi Arabia has an important role in that equation because its East-West pipeline provides an alternative route for some crude exports that would otherwise move through Hormuz. Higher flows through the pipeline can therefore reduce the immediate pressure created by the disruption, but the pipeline cannot fully replace the enormous volumes of oil and gas that normally pass through the strait.
That leaves the reopening of Hormuz as a critical condition for a broader normalization of the market.
Yet Nasser’s warning suggests that normalization would occur in stages. First, shipping would have to return to normal and market confidence would need to recover. Then producers would need to supply enough additional crude to rebuild commercial inventories while still meeting everyday consumption.
That process could take up to two years.
The implication is that the end of the conflict would not necessarily mark the end of the energy shock. If inventories remain depleted, oil prices could remain vulnerable to production outages, geopolitical disruptions, or unexpected increases in demand long after the immediate shipping crisis has eased.
For major oil-consuming economies, that would result in a difficult policy problem. Emergency reserves can provide a bridge during a supply disruption, but repeated releases cannot permanently compensate for a structural loss of supply. Governments may therefore face continued pressure to secure alternative sources, manage fuel consumption and maintain sufficient strategic inventories.
For producers, meanwhile, the crisis is exposing the limited spare capacity and logistical flexibility available when a major global energy corridor is impaired.
The immediate decline in Brent and WTI prices may offer only temporary relief. If Nasser’s estimate is correct, the market could remain structurally more fragile for years after the physical disruption begins to fade.